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2012 Six Nations Rugby Union

I'm with the Frogs alright against Ireland. By 15-20 points.

Italy in front of 70,000 could counter your reasonable 'opening game then not much' observation, Suirthing. And England are very average going on last Saturday.
 
Greetings Pie, you are probably still spending all that easy cash from the RWC punting.
I think I read someplace at the weekend that Ireland have kicked off their 6 Nations against Italy, 6 out of the last 7 times, and they are always close as Italy have that big opening game in them. I will try and hunt that down, and confirm in a while. :)
 
Italy v England

Lancaster yesterday was talking about England's improved 'technical discipline'; that they only conceded 9 penalties v Scots.
All very good, I'm sure, but can you remember one incisive line-break? Even 'try drought' Scotland managed a few of those.
And Dan Parks spent the afternoon kicking the ball into the hands of England's 'lethal' speed merchants in the back three -- Ashton, Foden and Strettle. Yet zero open field threat from them. Sure, history is with England (never lost to Italy) and Ashton alone ran 4 tries past them Week 2 last year. :eek:

I'm tempted to get on Italy win, but the odds are crap. Even Italy/Italy HT/FT is a miserly 5-1 or thereabouts. BUT, the Eyeties can give England a fright at the new (to rugby) venue. 70,000 in Rome. Botolami and Canale back and start. Take Italy on the handicap (+8).

2 pts Luke McLean first try @ 14-1
8 pts Italy HT @ 9/4

France v Ireland

France made hard work of it at times (first half) v Italy. Battle of the back rows will be interesting against Ireland. At half-back, Yachvilli missing for Frogs, which is a worry. Yet they still have too much firepower in the backs. If the French go over in the first 10 minutes and the night crowd warm up I can see the French winning at home by 15+.

11pts France -9 @ 10/11
8 pts Malzieu any time try @ 13/8

:thumb
 
England ordinary. Might improve with Tuilagi and Flood returning, and Twickenham. I won't be piling on.

Pitch inspection in Paris. If on. it's live at 4.00am here. :sleep
 
Wales v Scotland

'Indoors' in Cardiff. Scotland request for closed roof. Is this some sort of bluff? Are the Scots really going to give it width and give it a go? If they do, total points put up at around 43 points catches the eye, on the over. But the bald fact is Scotland would need satnav to find the tryline. None in the last 4 games. The bloke to watch out for is their No.8, Dave Denton. Great go-forward punch last week.

Wales 'play what is in front of them'. They play 'heads-up rugby'. They're a bit French. They're confident. None of this in doubt, and with fitness and skill levels (eg breakdown and off-loads) being close to NH top-notch, they should run in 4 tries.

It's Wales for me, though a double-figure handicap is some ask in any of these games. So I'm keeping stakes small on outcome, and chucking in a try-scorer on the spreads. The Denton try is a max 5pt loss if he doesn't go over in the match, but stake times minutes on clock if he does. A more prosaic try-scoring option is North to score anytime for Wales. He probably will, but 5/4 doesn't excite.

8 pts Wales (-12) @ evens
1 pt handicap tie @ 16-1
1 pt BUY Denton try 5 mins

:thumb
 
W3

Bookies are putting a lot of trust in the Twickenham factor to have the Welsh at only 2pt favourites. But Dickson and Morgan at 8 and 9 option (if taken) adds a bit to England. I should think Flood and Tuilagu will come off the bench.
Wales to win and France to cover the 6 pt cap in Scotland. Italy get a 15 pt start in Ireland. Seems a bit generous to Italy, but is probably about right.

Fair profit W2. Time to give the camel coats a real fright this coming weekend.
 
here are the caps for this weekend's matches from bluesq

Saturday
13:30 Ireland -16 1.91 Tie 17.00 Italy +16 1.91

16:00 England +3 1.91 Tie 17.00 Wales -3 1.91

Sunday
15:00 Scotland +6 1.91 Tie 17.00 France -6 1.91

I can't remember us being favourites at Twickenham , we've always been hopeful that we could pull something off.
I agree with pie that the +16 for Italy is about right , a +8 Italy at ht would be tempting.
France can overcome that -6 cap
 
Italy v Ireland

The perennial recent problem with Italy: the lack of an international class No.10 and reliable goal kicker. But I don't think Ireland would scare the bejeezus out of anyone. This forum has been big on backing Italy on 'cap (or to be winning h/t as in W2 at 9/4) and that 7 point h/t handicap in this game looks Italy good to me. Ireland are very fragile 16 point favourites in Rome. But I'm on the fence :unsureon this one.

England v Wales

Wales by 10. Think Lancaster has made the bold and positive move at 8,9,10 after Hodgson finger injury (fortuitous?), and Tuliagu back at 13 adds much-needed England line-break and offload punch in the backs. You can see Wales providing nine of the starting XV on the next Lions tour with Warbuton as captain and Gatland as coach. Wales have won only once at Twickenham in the last 23 years. Make that twice by Saturday evening.

The Grand Slam showdown is set up for Cardiff W5. So the bet of the weekend has to be:

15 pts double

Wales -3
France -7

:thumb
 
Havent followed rugby since I used to sell my schoolboy international tickets bought for a quid to pissed up rugby fans for £40 a throw so i could buy commodore 64 games from john mwnzies on princess st, buy a wimpey meal and then home.....

However I have watched the last couple of scottish games and even after quizzing the rugby gurus ar work (who all thought scotland would win both games) i cannit agree anymore sbout them needing a satnav to score tries.

Granted they have seemed a tad unlucky but I have been impressed with France and although the Scottish still seem confident I'm happy to folliw pie & traeth on them covering the handicap
 
I'm looking forward to tomorrows England v Wales game, Chucker hits the nail on the head with England needing a line breaker, I don't think we've had one with any impact since Jason Robinson retired so it should be interesting to see Tuliagu back who is the nearest we've had since.
England by nook or by crook have somehow managed two wins on the bounce away from home which is a great feat in itself but Wales should be a different proposition who like everybody else has mentioned are worthy favourites for this game.

I'm not ruling England out completely though as this young side may rise to the occasion at Twickenham and suprise us all, they certainly aren't short of bottle and have in their previous two games found another gear when it's needed most, it's the taking their foot off the gas when in front which worries me most.
 
I'm getting worried about today's game at Twickenham , Wales should win but as slick says England have played poorly away and have won the two matches. Wales rarely win at Twickenham and England raises their game at home, but England have a number of inexperienced players, I can't go against my home country in the Year of the Dragon.

Here are my rugby bets for the weekend
Italy +8 @ h.t
Wales -3
France-6
 
here are this weekend's odds from ladbrokes

10 Mar.
14:30 Wales 1.03 Italy 12.00 Tie 34.00

10 Mar.
17:00 Ireland 1.22 Scotland 4.50 Tie 21.00

11 Mar.
15:00 France 1.28 England 3.75 Tie 19.00

the cap

10 Mar.
14:30 Wales (-21.0) 1.90 Italy (+21.0) 1.90 Tie (-21.0) 17.00

10 Mar.
17:00 Ireland (-10.0) 1.90 Scotland (+10.0) 1.90 Tie (-10.0) 17.00

11 Mar.
15:00 France (-8.0) 1.90 England (+8.0) 1.90 Tie (-8.0) 17.00
 
Wales v Italy

the Welsh team
WALES: Leigh Halfpenny (Blues); Alex Cuthbert (Blues), Jonathan Davies (Scarlets), Jamie Roberts (Blues), George North (Scarlets); Rhys Priestland (Scarlets), Michael Phillips (Bayonne); Gethin Jenkins (Blues, capt), Matthew Rees (Scarlets), Adam Jones (Ospreys), Alun Wyn Jones (Ospreys), Ian Evans (Ospreys), Dan Lydiate (Dragons), Justin Tipuric (Ospreys), Toby Faletau (Dragons).

REPLACEMENTS: Ken Owens (Scarlets), Paul James (Ospreys), Luke Charteris (Dragons), Ryan Jones (Ospreys), Rhys Webb (Ospreys), James Hook (Perpignan), Scott Williams (Scarlets).

that looks a strong team but I have my doubts about the fitness of some of the players , we've already lost our captain Warburton to injury.
His replacement ataipuric is a good replacement but he can be volatile , I can see him being binned if he plays his usual game. We have our "Lions" front row , lets hope they are back to their old form. At scrum half our replacement is the fourth choice so Phillips will have to be injury free . At outside half Priestland has been having trouble with both knees but is "reported fit". Roberts has been doubtful for a few days but we have an able replacement in the try scoring hero Williams.

I've been a backer of Italy @h.t. with the handicap but I can't see myself going against Wales , we are due a big win and have the potential to produce one if we can feed our big wingers. I not convinced that overcoming that 21 point handicap is a good bet though. Perhaps nearer the kick off time I'll be more positive .


anyone else with some thoughts? Pie I need convincing
 
last week ,I avoided the Italy cap at h.t. , what fool me

I backed Wales -21 after some reluctance , score was 24-3 , I bet the cappers got a big bonus last weekend ,

Wales going for the slam this weekend , I've taken Wales -4 with bluesq , they are -6 with most of the others

these caps from bluesq
Sat, 17th of Mar, 2012

12:30 Italy +4 1.91 Tie 17.00 Scotland -4 1.91

14:45 Wales -4 1.91 Tie 17.00 France +4 1.91

17:00 England -3 1.91 Tie 17.00 Ireland +3 1.91
 
the two teams for the slam match

sam the captain's back

WALES: Leigh Halfpenny (Blues); Alex Cuthbert (Blues), Jonathan Davies (Scarlets), Jamie Roberts (Blues), George North (Scarlets); Rhys Priestland (Scarlets), Michael Phillips (Bayonne); Gethin Jenkins (Blues, capt), Matthew Rees (Scarlets), Adam Jones (Ospreys), Alun Wyn Jones (Ospreys), Ian Evans (Ospreys), Dan Lydiate (Dragons), Sam Warburton (Blues, capt), Toby Faletau (Dragons).

REPLACEMENTS: Ken Owens (Scarlets), Paul James (Ospreys), Luke Charteris (Dragons), Ryan Jones (Ospreys), Lloyd Williams (Blues), James Hook (Perpignan), Scott Williams (Scarlets).

FRANCE: C Poitrenaud (Toulouse); W Fofana (Clermont Auvergne), A Rougerie (Clermont Auvergne), F Fritz (Toulouse), A Palisson (Toulon); L Beauxis (Stade Francais), D Yachvili (Biarritz); J-B Poux (Toulouse), W Servat (Toulouse), D Attoub (Stade Francais), P Pape (Stade Francais), Y Maestri (Toulouse), T Dusautoir (Toulouse, capt), J Bonnaire (Clermont Auvergne), I Harinordoquy (Biarritz).

REPLACEMENTS: D Szarzewski (Stade Francais), V Debaty (Clermont Auvergne), J Pierre (Clermont Auvergne), L Picamoles (Toulouse), M Parra (Clermont), F Trinh-Duc (Montpellier), J-M Buttin (Clermont Auvergne).
 
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