Antepost accas 2013/14

[hotspur]

Well well,wouldn't you know it

"Life is what happens when you are busy making other plans" as a famous Liverpudlian once said.

I've come out of retirement due to the fact( sorry not fact,my belief) that this season is the easiest season for antepost accumulators in the last 20 years,and possibly longer( I will actually be checking).


Nope I don't mean that I'm going to do another thread as I think ANYONE who did these bets this year would have a better than 50 % chance of making a profit and so it would prove little.

Instead I'm having one last hurrah with my own money and I'm going to go easy on the hedging and see whether my luck is in.


I am ( very )occasionally still posting elsewhere and if anyone should ever discover one of those posts I didn't want them thinking I'm a liar hence I'm explaining why I am having another go this year.


But never mind me ,I also want to encourage anyone who sees this to take advantage of the situation because as I say I don't expect it to occur again for many years.


Problem is though that one of the criticisms I received on this forum and actually the one criticism that I never tire of telling other people about is that apparently,

I " am trying to come across as a guru".

Now I wouldn't want to appear to come across as someone who has the slightest clue what the fuck they're talking about,no sir,so I've given this at least 3 minutes thought and I think I have found a solution.

I mean that I think I've found a way to get across why this season is a good season to do these bets without necessarily implying I know anything.

What I propose is to explain the things that happened last season that caused me problems!

And then anyone is free to compare the problems I had last season with the situation this year......or not,as the case may be.


But before I do that I probably should also explain(havnt decided yet though)why the fuck I even care about telling people about this and encouraging them to do these bets or rather, more specifically,why I even bother trying to encourage gamblers on forums to do these bets when no one gives a shit about them and probably won't even if it ever became reasonably common knowledge that they were in fact the best way to bet on football.



But not now.Thats enough for one post.

Anyway,in case it turns out that I don't get round to explaining the problems I had last year or why I care about telling people about this ,if anyone was thinking of doing these bets this year but wasn't sure,






For fucks sake DO THEM.

You ( probably) won't regret it.

 

[ThunderCelt]

HOTSPUR!!!!!

 

[hotspur]

I never got round to explaining the problems I had in the 2013/14 season.

So I thought it might be an idea to briefly mention the ( potential )problems I had last season or problems that it's possible others may have had.


I will do it one at a time I think.

1) The collapse of Arbroath

When you do these bets you are of course hoping that no team at the top of the table collapses.
The more teams that collapse the harder it is in theory.

However as long as you are only attempting to make a reasonably modest profit -30% for example*- then a team collapsing should not be a problem at all.

If it is then you aren't doing this right.Unfortunately I can't say more on that as I would no doubt be ' trying to come across as a guru' if I do


The thing is however that I personally NEVER only ATTEMPT modest percentage profits.

I always bet at what I believe is the very limit of what I think is possible.

Apart from anything else who would want to read a book**about some boring fucker only attempting to make a modest profit?

Most gambling books are soooooooo boring because the writer effectively has fuck all at risk.

If in the middle of April I'm not drinking way too much and feel like there's a massive weight on my chest then I know I havnt bet at the limit and I'm a boring fucker.

(In one book I read, a journalist was given ,GIVEN !!!!!!!!!,£6000 to bet on various different markets.

JESUS.)


Anyway the question is did Arbroaths collapse cause me any real problem.

And the answer is no.( Although of course I'd have been sitting pretty if they hadn't.)

Because the Scottish Lge 2 was by far the easiest league to bet on last season ( well apart from the Scottish Championship but thst was over by October) since it was clearly a 3 horse race from quite early on and one of those horses ,Queens Park was always easy to cover due to it's high price.

Thus I would be very surprised if anyone didn't already have Albion onside when Arbroath collapsed.

But if anyone didn't then clearly last season would have provided a valuable lesson!


* YES I did say that 30 % would be a modest total doing this.Especially last season.

Only the Championship was tricky.Every other league could have been successfully ' traded' by a fucking monkey in my opinion.


If anyone did not make a profit for some reason I'd be extremely interested to know what happened .

I know no one will but you can PM me if you want. You must be doing something fundamentally wrong.


** if there ever is a book of course.

 

[hotspur]

In my last post I said that betting on the Championship (antepost in running) last season was tricky.

Of course I'm only saying I,myself, found it tricky- if anyone was betting on it and found it a doddle then very well done,I'd love to know your bets that's for sure.

I don't think there's any need to specify all the things I found tricky but I think it's worth pointing out the overall general situation that made betting on the Championship in running last season tricky I thought.

And that is when ,among other things, you find only a smallish number of points separating the top 7 or 8 teams.

Yes I know,pretty obvious really.


OK now I'm going to risk being accused of 'trying to come across as a guru'.

Because I'm going to give you some absolutely blinding advice on what to do in such situations!


It's advice that I've learned in 15 plus years of solid experience and good old trial and error I will have you know.

And it works like a fucking dream!

And I've giving it careful thought and I think it just about pulls up short of the 'trying to come across as a guru' mark.

But of course only you can be the judge of that.Anyway,here it comes.

Here's what you should do in my ever so 'umble opinion when faced with a league in which there is a relatively small gap between the top several teams.......





Don't fucking well bet on it.



Okie dokie. Well I realise that some of you will no doubt be wondering if there is any limit to my knowledge ( and yet others whether there is any beginning to it) but what can you do?


Now one or two of you may be thinking how are you going to learn to improve your antepost in running betting if ,every time you come across a tricky situation you just wait til it sorts itself out?

Good question.

Well,I would suggest working out what the easiest market is likely to be and taking it from there.

And so what do you think the easiest market would have been last season in the Championship?

I reckon it would likely have been the market , 'To be in the Top 6' ,don't you?

When you get to the point where too many teams are very low prices to be top 6 then I would further suggest that you could perhaps see that as your cue to start thinking about stepping up to the next easiest market.

And that would be ,I would ever so 'umbly suggest,EVER SO 'umbly , the market 'To be in the Playoffs'.

Although,depending on the team ,it might conceivably be the promotion market.

NB edit in fact the promotion market would always be easier than the 'to be in the play offs' markets of course .But if you were trying to improve your antepost betting in running then the playoff market provides better opportunities ( in my ever so 'umble opinion)

Right so apart from Arbroaths collapse and the trickyness of the championship,what other potential problems were there last season?


The unusually high ( I thought) amount of injuries to strikers,innit?

 

[hotspur]

I just wanted to explain why I seem to be posting a lot when I previously said I intend to stop not just posting but even betting.

Firstly ,last season was the very first time that I was able to cash out my antepost accumulators.

I don't actually know if the facility was available the year before.


Anyway the thing is I was very surprised indeed to find just how useful this was.

And as a result of my experience with cash outs I now believe that there can be no doubt whatsoever that antepost accumulators are the best way to bet on football!

Because the main objection to any kind of long term bet on the part of gamblers is having to tie up money.

Well now they don't.

And I am now very excited about this whole situation especially if more bookies introduce cash outs on long term bets.

In particular the ability to cash out means that I effectively have a whole new load of things to learn about these bets.

Because,make no mistake,how you bet on antepost accas knowing you can cash out ,is rather different to how you would bet knowing you couldn't!

It's essentially a whole new skill.

And I want to learn it.Absolutely I do.


But the main reason I'm excited about this new development is that whereas before I had a doubt in my mind as to whether or not telling large numbers of people about the merits of antepost accumulators was a 'good' thing to do ( because apart from anything else some of those people could if they weren't too careful lose all their money) that doubt has now now largely dissipated.

And so I want to invest a lot of time thinking deeply about antepost accumulators ,poring over previous seasons and the way they panned out etc and about how best to take advantage of the fact thst you can cash out your bets.

I'm hoping that if I ,for the very first time in my whole life mind, ' do the work' ,then I will be more able to encourage people to take up this form of betting which is much more entertaining than any other.

But also ,the fact that cash outs are a game changer means that we are all in the same position!

ANYONE could right now choose to do what I'm probably going to be doing.

Your knowledge of how to use cash outs is as good as mine right now.

It seems to me that IF antepost accas are indeed the best way to bet on football and IF cash outs are a very useful aid to doing them then it follows,doesn't it,that whoever becomes the most adept at using them would also be the best football bettor in the whole wide world!!!!



( Or maybe not)


But the best thing of all is that,as I say...............

ANYONE could do it.........


Anyway thats the reason I'm posting more.IE it's because I can't fucking wait for next season and have betting on the mind a bit too much....much much much too much it would seem....

 

[ThunderCelt]

Okay, I'll risk if not disagreeing with hotspur, debating the point about antepost cashouts' usefulness. I know the facility is there, but I've declined to use it. That's because I don't think the cashout facility gives value - all the bets I've had the option of cashing out have been offered at less value than the option of keeping them in (in my opinion, of course).

I think that goes for 'ordinary' in-play cashouts too, where it seems to me that bookies are relying on punters not having the nerve to hang on to a winning punt, and therefore take a smaller profit.

Clearly hotspur disagrees as he finds them useful and I'd be interested in him explaining how/why/when he uses them.

 

[Seen]

Well I think what Hotspur has uncovered is fantastic! Just imagine though if some company had decided to put this in operation like 15 years ago, and called themselves Bet fair or something, they'd have made a killing!

 

[ONEDUNME]

Okay, I'll risk if not disagreeing with hotspur, debating the point about antepost cashouts' usefulness. I know the facility is there, but I've declined to use it. That's because I don't think the cashout facility gives value - all the bets I've had the option of cashing out have been offered at less value than the option of keeping them in (in my opinion, of course).

I think that goes for 'ordinary' in-play cashouts too, where it seems to me that bookies are relying on punters not having the nerve to hang on to a winning punt, and therefore take a smaller profit.

Clearly hotspur disagrees as he finds them useful and I'd be interested in him explaining how/why/when he uses them.

Exactly right. I'm bored shitless at the amount of morons I've bumped into who have ranted about the "new" cashout facility. When I mention that you've been able to do this for 15 years and that all the bookies are doing now is offering you the chance to lay your bet at the click of a button at a shitter price than you would get if you could be arsed to open up a betfair app.

Clever move by the bookies but it's taken the clowns long enough to catch on.