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ATP 1000/WTA Premier Rome 2012

H

homunculus

Guest
Let Rome be at least as successful as Madrid

Makarova to bt Schiavone @2.05 Pinnacle (2/10)
Schiavone in descending path this season, she is 8/13 (Wins/Losses), and I doubt
she will get out of this. Though H2H is 2-0 for Cesca, the matches are from last year
where Cesca was in much better shape. Makarova's performance in Madrid was
quite decent, defeated both Voskoboeva and Kirilenko while being slight underdog,
and had tight match with the ultimate finalist Hradecka. Cesca lost 6 matches
in a row with lefty opponents (last time this was Lepchenko in Madrid), and this
also should add to Makarova. I place only2 pts on this because I do not want tooverheat
in the opener.

adding:

Kohlschreiber to bt Isner @2.29 Pinnacle (2/10)
Kohli in top form, won Munich last week, while Isner is hardly able to hit the ball
on return, as shown in his match vs Cilic in Madrid. Unless Big John SUBSTANTIALLY
improves his game, and I have no reason to believe he will try before FO,
this should be rather easy for Kohli.
 
Youzhny to beat Belluci @ 1.87 on Betfair, that's what I got anyway, he's 1.57 on there atm...

Youzhny can be a headcase, but recently has been showing A LOT of fight and determination ... when this guy is on, he is on........ and I mean really... He is a top 20 player when he's focused... he'll dispose of Belluci who jus doesn't have what it takes consistency wise I am afraid. Youzhny has so much variety, really, intelligent player with all the shots .....

8/10

£101

Isner to beat Kohlschreiber @ 1.8 with Betfair

Isner had a blip last week losing to Cilic, the ball didn't bounce high enough for usual liking when playing on clay courts.

Its back to real clay courts now and Kohlschreiber is no where near as consistently clutch than Cilic on the serve.

£201

8/10 in the confidence stakes
 
ImLovinIt said:
Youzhny to beat Belluci @ 1.87 on Betfair, that's what I got anyway, he's 1.57 on there atm...

Youzhny can be a headcase, but recently has been showing A LOT of fight and determination ... when this guy is on, he is on........ and I mean really... He is a top 20 player when he's focused... he'll dispose of Belluci who jus doesn't have what it takes consistency wise I am afraid. Youzhny has so much variety, really, intelligent player with all the shots .....

8/10

£101
Click to expand...

Sic! :D
 
Starace to beat Kubot @ 1.78 with Betfair
Pretty simple, both have big serves, but one only really has the defense and movement really suited to be able to clay. Starace leads Kubot 4-0 in their head to heads and you would think he'll be focus channeled seeing as he's @ home in Italy's only Masters event.

£201

8/10 in the confidence stakes

Fognini to beat Baghdatis @ 1.71 with Betfair
Much the better clay-courter and like Starace will be going into this with a huge incentive and desire for the cause.

Baggy hasn't been in good form and Fognini when he can be bothered brings stupid amounts of talent to a tennis court.

8/10

£350
 
Been chewing this for a while, but I pulled the trigger, asking for troubles at the same time :)

Dolgopolov to bt Verdasco @2.20 Pinnacle (2/10)
I was riding Dolgo last week couple of times, and he brought me money in overs against Tsonga,
but he failed to cover +4.5 hcp against DelPo in a disgusting fashion (31% first serve in). Nevertheless,
I still rate him a beast on clay IF and WHEN he is motivated and hist 1st serve is working. Both have been
in oscillating form on clay this season, Dolgo losing disgracefully to Cipolla in Casablanca and Nando
losing to Ramos-Vinolas and Andreev earlier this year, and both got good results lately, Dolgo beating Tsonga
and Nando beating Nadal on Madrid smurf clay (though both those wins could at least partly be attributed to
the negatove attitude of their opponents to the blue Madrid surface). This bet is based on the assumption that
Nando still suffers kinda of big win hangover and is going to deliver his usual share of unforceds, and Dolgo is
going to find his 1st serve again. These two did not met yet, so there is a place for an (small) upset. GL :crossfingers

adding

Cilic vs Almagro over 22.5 games @1.980 Pinnacle (3/10)
God knows why Mugro is a fav in this match, and I was debating going for Cilic at 2.6ish.
Cilic actually leads H2H 2-0 and both matches went to full distance. Mugro, however,
has shown top form lately, had really tight battle vs Ferrer which Ferrer won by BIG LUCK.
Cilic had good run two weeks ago in Munich (played Final there), has got massive serve
and killing forehand which should put Mugro in troubles on return. Neither of them is kind of
player that would even think of tanking this tournament, Cilic defending quarterfinal from last year,
and Mugro being stubborn Spanish tennis player that never gives up. I see this is going to
be pretty tight battle.


... and God Bless ImLovinIt in his Choky-Foggy bet :)
 
The wind severely cripples the play :-( Poor Dolgo unable to hit the court,
se he retires after being bagelised in 1st set, oh dear... This wind got me...
I am glad I usually do not go heavy in 1st round.

edit: going for a shot
Haase to bt Wawrinka @5.00 Pinnacle (1/10)
in windy conditions like this, Wawa's slices should not work and big server
should have advantage. Robin alway pulls out his best against stronger opponents.
I don't REALLY expect this to come through, though :)
 
ImLovinIt said:
Isner to beat Kohlschreiber @ 1.8 with Betfair

Isner had a blip last week losing to Cilic, the ball didn't bounce high enough for usual liking when playing on clay courts.

Its back to real clay courts now and Kohlschreiber is no where near as consistently clutch than Cilic on the serve.

£201

8/10 in the confidence stakes
Click to expand...

Just cannot stop hitting :D
 
Nothing for me tomorrow, cept the Starace bet which I've already placed.
 
Thanks bro. The Kohli match was tight, but you were the luckier one in the end :)
The Wawa match was tight, too, and no way a 5.0 underdog should get to 1-6 6-4 5-4 30:0
on return, but it did not come through either. As to Dolgo, I once again broke the essential
commandment "Thou shalt never tip Dolgo in round one, except perhaps Umag", and
I was punished for it. Bad luck yesterday, so I am happy to break even (+0.04 pts).

I stay with WTA today

Cirstea +4.5 > Jankovic @1.893 Pinnacle (3/10)
Cirstea to bt Jankovic @3.39 Pinnacle (1/10)
Jankovic is 2-3 on clay this season. She was forced to retire three weeks ago
in Stuttgart in her match vs Wozniacki due to low back pain, and she lost to
Suarez-Navarro next week in Madrid. As to Sorana, she is 4-3 on clay
this season. She defeated Bartoli last week on Madrid's smurf clay and
lost next round to Medina-Garrigues in a tight three setter. Sorana has got
huge serve, and actually she leads H2H 2-0 with last win on French Open 2009.
I see this as a tight battle with Sorana having the potential to cause an upset.

Pavlyuchenkova +5.5 > Kvitova @1.926 Pinnacle (3/10)
Pavlyuchenkova to bt Kvitova @5.08 Pinnacle (1/10)
Kvitova is half of the last year's Kvitova in this season. I fancy Pavly to
take advantage here - Pavly actually knows how to play against Kvitova,
she bagelised her last year in Miami in a match that must stick in Kvitova's
head for the rest of her life. And Kvitova is known to be able to fault herself
to death if she gets nervous. Though Pavly is 3-5 (wins-losses) on clay's this
season, this stat is formed by her losses against Ivanovic and Jankovic in Fed Cup
and Serena Williams last week in Madrid. She defends R3 from last year here,
and she made it to quarterfinal last year at FO, so I expect her to deliver
some good performance.
 
homunculus said:
Cirstea +4.5 > Jankovic @1.893 Pinnacle (3/10) :thumb
Cirstea to bt Jankovic @3.39 Pinnacle (1/10) :thumb :dance
Pavlyuchenkova +5.5 > Kvitova @1.926 Pinnacle (3/10) :thumb
Pavlyuchenkova to bt Kvitova @5.08 Pinnacle (1/10) LOSS
Click to expand...

Much better today. Looks like I undestand womens better :)

pushing my luck and adding

Halep vs V.Williams over 20.5 games @1.943 Pinnacle (2/10)
Halep to bt V.Williams @2.69 Pinnacle (1/10)
Tese two played last week and it was tight three setter where Venus
was the luckier one (she won 3rd set tie-break). This time this is much
slower surface that gives more chance to Simona. I expect a tight battle
again with Simona having the slight edge.
 
homunculus said:
Halep vs V.Williams over 20.5 games @1.943 Pinnacle (2/10) :duh :puke
Halep to bt V.Williams @2.69 Pinnacle (1/10) LOSS
Click to expand...

Did not work. This stupid #@*)(* :banghead Halep totally screwed it up in the second set,
being a break up and having couple of additional breakpoints that she managed
to throw away by ultra-stupid shots. I am totally disgusted, I grab today's +3.8 pts
profit and I log out for ther rest of Tuesday.
 
Fognini to beat Granollers @ Evens and Monaco to beat Stepanek @ 1.53, both with StanJames

Fognini is a talent to behold when he can be arsed and as I said before ... when infront of his beloved Italian public, he can be arsed. The Italian crowd don't particularly get that patriotic about their players, but Fognini is a handsome fella and very charismatic, a lot of youngsters look up to him and find him the "cool" dude.

He'll turn it on and dispose of Granollers who I quite simply jus do not rate ATM.

Monaco beating Stepnaek is self explanatory really, shouldn't be much of an issue, even though he has only recently jus arrived back from injury. It was a short stint out and probably did him some good, he disposed of Ungur in quite comprehensive fashion today and although I expect Radek's slice and dice game to cause him the odd issue or two, it shouldn't be enough to beat the the most improved and in-form player of 2012 thus far!

Just over 3.00 odds

£300

8/10
 
One early bet for tomorrow

Makarova to bt V.Williams @2.81 Pinnacle (3/10)
I have seen the R1 matches of both (Makarova vs Schiavone and V.W. vs Halep),
and 2.81 is value for me. Venus is a beast when she manages to hit the ball - no chance
for the opponent. But her weakness is that she often does not manage to hit it right. She made
tons of unforced errors against Halep, and Halep was too dumb to take advantage. The main
problem of Halep was her weak and feeble serve, which Venus managed to diabolicaly return
back in one case in three/four. Now Makarova is not going to provide such luxury. She is rather
solid on serve and baseline play, and she will not chose the wrong direction of smash when
playing at the net as this dumb Simona did every too often. I rate Makarova's chances better than
50%, so this is a must. GL :crossfingers
 
Got it, bro

Now, though this is Wednesday and Wednesday is a gold mine for tennis bookies,
I am going to ignore the warnings and I am adding this

WTA player to WIN this all Serena Williams @2.75 Pinnacle (10/10)
Now who else, really? Azarenka? We have seen this couple of days ago - Vika has got no
brain to defeat Serena. Sharapova? She's got the required sharpness, but makes too many
faults. Kvitova? Hahahaha hohohoho. Stosur? Had it been on hard - perhaps, but Stosur
did not beat anyone worth to mention on clay for ages, and she has been spanked by Serena
6-1 6-1 this year in Charleston. Radwanska - too feeble shots. She will got the ball back sooner
than she even realizes Serena did hit it.. Li Na? Too erratic. So that's it.

Granollers to bt Fognini @2.27 Pinnacle (2/10)
I would not underestimate Marc on any surface, especially on clay.This guy really can be
a pain in the ass, drives the opponents mad with his grunting, and he always pulls out his
best when he is the outsider of the match. Last year he did take part in many upsets. He was
not good in the early part of this season, getting out of injury, but by defeating Feliciano Lopez in
R1 he proved he means it here. Foggy is a player with superb clay skills, but he is also able to
totally screw the match, for example to break the opponent early and then to lose billion of games
in row etc. They played 4 times so far, Foggy leading H2H 3-1, but his first two wins come from
2007 challengers. The also played in Acapulco 2009 where Marc won 7-6 7-5, and 2010 they played
in Brasil, where Marc bagelised Foggy in set 1, but then he choked the match away and lost 6-0 1-6 6-7.
 
:embarassed Makarova huge disappointment. I should have realized she is no fighter at all.
going for

Mayer +6.5 > Nadal @2.20 Pinnacle (3/10)
Mayer actually leads H2H 1-0 :), and he scored good win over Raonic in R1. GL :crossfingers
 
More than usual share of bad luck PLUS bad judgement this week :grr
1) Isner miraculously recovered in the match vs Kohli after being 2-6 4-5 down and Kohli serving for the match.
2) Betting Dolgo in R1 and Dolgo totally exploded in the wind vs Verdasco.
3) Halep, instead of going 4-1 in the 2nd set, managed to screw couple of breakpoints
by superstupid shots AND let rebroke herself and lost the 2nd set too - over bet lost.
4) Makarova totally fukked up the match after serving for the 1st set at 5-4 and being clearly
better player on the court.
5) Mayer vs Nadal match - I was greedy and took +6.5 instead of standard +7.5, AND
Mayer fukked up the 1st set.

being -3.46 pts today and +0.3 pts this week, I realized that I am not in my best shape in Rome,
and I triggered the "operation bail out". Serena's future still pending at 2.75 for 10 pts - I am going to
lay this tomorrow, which should get me to zero or small positive result. I shall enjoy the rest of
the week with the nice feeling that bookies did not get me in Rome :). Still havin +21.9 from Madrid,
see ya next week.
 
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