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ATP/WTA Madrid Masters 1000 Event

I

ImLovinIt

Guest
Stan Wawrinka to beat Jurgen Melzer 2-0 @ 10/11 with Bet 365

I believe Jurgen's win over Feliciano was more to do with Feliciano's ineptness on the backhand side than Jurgen being anything impressive. Melzer prefers these slightly quicker clay courts and he was targeting Feliciano's backhand knowing the backhand would struggle to defend with how quick the ball would take off from the court.

Stan has a much more controlled backhand, he has, for me, one of the best backhands in the game, especially on clay. Melzer really has no luxury for where he can win cheap points by targeting either side.

Once Melzer gets into rallies with a player good on clay, whether its a fast clay surface or not, he struggles. Stan's been in brilliant form and pushed Del Potro all the way, I cannot see a hope in hell for Melzer even sneaking a set here.

I'm going big, but I don't recommend you lot follow how big, this is a personal thing.

£241

9/10 in the confidence stakes


This is how well Del Potro had to play and ultimately SERVED! to beat Wawrinka in Estoril!

A, Radwanska vs S, Errani, Over 19.5 games @ 17/20 with Unibet

Radwanksa has only jus arrived back from injury and she did not impress me for the most part of her match against Azerenka, yes is was Azerenka and yes most people get crushed by her now a days, but she really was poor.

I'm not fooled by her win over Li Na the round earlier and I can see a tough, tight tussle here for her.

This line is ridiculous, Errani is a clay court specialist, what you would call a clay court specialist, she hustles and harries and doesn't really ever give a player cheap points.

There's also the +4.5 game handicap but I much prefer the games line.

£31

7/10 in the confidence stakes

Isner to beat Cilic @ 4/6 with StanJames

You have got to be shitting me?

A you have got to be shitting me moment, the odds on this will plummit, no doubt...

Isner has evolved so much as a player over the past year, we've seen him school Tsonga on the surface, Simon on the surface, F, Lopez on the surface (Well that one was close, admittedly) .. he's taken Rafa to 5 sets @ the French bloody open, on the surface... how in the World StanJames are being so generous with this price with Isner against, essentially, a player that really, quite frankly, isn't all that, on the surface.....

Cilic has little defensive qualities and to beat John Isner, you need them, its not rocket science to know if you can't defend well against this bloke you are in danger.

He'll need to serve better in tie breaks to beat John here and I'm afraid he's not very clutch and doesn't play the bigger points as consistently well as John does.

Tight sets, but John will prevail.

£81

9/10 in the confidence stakes

Kerber to beat Li Na @ 10/11 with Unibet

Li Na is still living off reputation, she was so erratic against Kerber and I don't see why she would all of a sudden spring into playing good clay court tennis, without spraying unforced errors, on a consistent basis.

She's all over the shop, literally!

One thing you need to beat Kerber is consistency, it doesn't matter how well you play in spurts, this girl will make you pay! She is a cool, calm and collected player is Kerber and her quite somewhat comprehensive victory over Venus Williams has given me confidence to go that extra yard on this one.

£33

6/10 in the confidence stakes ... but only because its WTA ... I still think this would take a really contrasting performance from Li Na with from her last match on clay.7

Federer vs Raonic, Total tie breaks 2+ @ 7/1 with William Hill

This bet doesn't need explaining.

£11

2/10 in the confidence stakes
 
Sorted, thread gone and user delled.

Welcome to Betnod again m8 and GL with your picks.
 
Hello,

I follow ImLovinIt at

Isner to bt Cilic @1.730 Pinnacle (2/10)
Wawrinka -1.5 sets > Melzer @1.877 Pinnacle (2/10)

and I am going against last year's finalists in WTA

Hradecka +7 > Kvitova @1.855 Pinnacle (2/10)

7 games seems is too much IMO. Hradecka has got powerful serve, and is not exactly lame
on clay. She played final in Barcelona last year. Kvitova is last year's Madrid winner , so it could
be risky to go against her, but she is known to be able to produce high number of errors if
she gets nervous, and the big serve of Hradecko should add to this. They met once (US Open
2 years ago) and the result was 6-4 7-5 for Petra.

Ivanovic + 4.5 > Azarenka @1.813 Pinnacle (2/10)

Vika not playing her best tennis so far here in Madrid. The match with Hlavackova
clearly demonstrated that. She makes unusually high number of errors, and
while one would expect quick end of the second set against (injured !) Hlavackova
after Vika was a break up, she was broken back, and the second set went to tie-break.
Now Anna actually leads H2H 2-1, and if Hlavackova was able to cover this handicap,
Anna should perform at least as that.

I put only 2 pts on each game, because it's Wednesday today, and I usually suck on Wednesdays :)
 
Mixed bag on followed selections. Isner was HUGE disappointment.
I watched his match, and this guy looked drunk or something...
WTA was quite fine
homunculus said:
Hradecka +7 > Kvitova @1.855 Pinnacle (2/10) 6-4 6-3 :thumb
Ivanovic + 4.5 > Azarenka @1.813 Pinnacle (2/10) 4-6 4-6 :thumb
Click to expand...

today's profit not bad considering it's Wednesday. Looking forward to Thursday.
 
Well done with the Isner pick man.

Yh, I hit big with Stan but that was about it, caught a few in-plays though, healthy profit.

Djokovic vs Wawrinka, (+1.5 sets handicap) Wawrinka @ 6/5 with Boylesport

Well so far Wawrinka has been my money maker, earn't me quite a buck over the last couple of weeks and I'm going to stick with him depsite the fact he is now up against, yes, the World number 1, reigning Australian Open, Wimbledon and US Open Champion.

That sounds quite off-putting doesn't it? But no it doesn't, because Djokovic isn't the most professional player in the World, he may be the best, but he's not the most professional. Listen to me, HIS GRANDDAD DIED!

I don't believe with what's gone on, Djokovic's mind is in the right place for tennis ATM, I doubt there's much clarity to how he strategises points and he's shown in recent matches to be simply a parady of his former self on court.

Stan is playing, literally some of the most sumtious tennis of his life, his movement has been unbelieveably good and that is something which is so pivotal in needing to even jus push Novak. If your movement isn't World class, you are fried, Tsonga proves this, great ball striker is Tsonga, but he doesn't move like Ali, even though he looks like him. Not only has Stan the movement to keep with Djokovic in rallies, but he also has the tenacity, his commitment to the cause recently has been second to none. I feel he knows now is the time to stamp his mark on the tennis World and where better other than a Masters 1000 in the heart of Europe? Well, there's the Grandslams, but you get my drift..

In the lead up to the Monte Carlo final he had umpteen mental lapses, but he got away with it, due to the inferiority of the opposition. Come the final, those mental lapses continued and against Rafa, you can't have those. Infact, with how-many he was having you can't have those against a talented top 20 player in form showing calmness under pressure.

Stan may lack a certain sense of belief due to only having recorded one victory over the bloke in however many matches, but that lack of self belief, if it does hit in, won't hit in until he is a set up and close to victory, until then I fancy the bloke to be as in "the zone" as he has been and to really make Novak pay for of these mental lapses.

Also....

Novak Djokovic
Yesterday
Today I played my first official match on blue clay and I have to admit I was not very happy. Next time i have to bring skates instead of shoes, it was sooo slippery. Dani played really good match and gave me a lot of trouble. I have to focus on next match now and hopefully It will be better than today.

Here was his reaction on his facebook page, Novak's main strength beyond anything else, that's even his backhand, IS HIS MOVEMENT. Being able to move well for him is the difference between him being ranked number 1 in the World and jus a player that lurks around the top 10 mark. Its that counter attacking quality that makes him soooooo good. Against Stan, in this form, up against these sorts of backhands, he'll need to be moving pretty well to clean out in a two set victory.

I know what you guys are probably thinking, yes the slippery conditions are going to effect Stan as well, but he has had an extra match on this surface, whereas Novak has only had one and against really awful opposition may I add.... where he even dropped a set.

£224 ... again, this is a personal bet and I wouldn't recommend ... bla bla

:D :D

I'm jus doing it coz its a good luck omen now. lol

9/10 in the confidence stake
 
Man, Isner pick was a mistake, but who could have known in advance that Big John is going to
tank in this tournament. Not going to touch him until he shows some good performance again.

Anyway this is what stroke me today

First I am also jumping on Wawa train, because I did not like what I saw in Djoker vs Gimeno-Traver.

Wawrinka +4 > Djokovic @2.03 Pinnacle (3/10)
Basically see above.

Dolgopolov vs Tsonga over 22.5 games @1.971 Pinnacle (3/10)
Tsonga is favourite in this match, but Jo not that dangerous on clay, and Dolgo, though you never know
with him before the tournament starts, did show against Seppi that he means it in Madrid. They played
four times against each other, and three times this went full distance (including two Grand Slam matches).
The only time Jo dealt with Dolgo in two (6-4 6-4) was Metz i-hard last year - conditions that favoured
Jo big time (at home and on i-hard).

Monfils to bt Berdych @3.55 Pinnacle (1/10)
This is speculative bet. I am always willing to go against Berdych on clay when he plays
with decent player in this part of season. He lost 1st round FO last year against Stephane
Robert (rank about 150), and IMO this match is a coin toss. Monfils played good against
Kohli, which was not tired at all after his Munich win, and had an easy match vs Andreev
that retired. Gael is therefore relatively rested, which is always vital with him.

Also going for WTA

Wozniacki +5 > Serena Williams @ 2.07 Pinnacle (3/10)
Hehehe, the story about Wozniacki's bad shape stroke the market. But actually, she is not
that bad. She dealt with huge bomber Mona Barthel in two, and actually defeated Serena this
year on her home soil in Miami 6-4 6-4. Serena rolls in clay season, that's true, but IMO
this is lack of respect to reality. Woz despite not being in her best shape now is a fighter, and is not
going to give up that easily.

and I took early that one:

Li Na to bt Azarenka @2.880 Pinnacle (2/10)
The odds already dropped from the opening 3.071, and I expect this to drop all the way to
the time the match takes place tomorow . Vika not at her best, playing 63 76 against injured
Hlavackova, and Li Na rolls in Madrid. Li Na had nice win over Kerber this week, and after all,
she defeated Vika last year in FO quarterfinal 7-5 6-2. I rate her chances really good.

GL.
 
Changed the title for you, Homunculus :thumb

Like the look of most of them, with the possible exception of the Wozniacki +5 - I've been impressed with what I've seen of Serena so far in this tournament. Admittedly 5 games is a pretty big handicap to clear, but looking at Serena's recent results (in particular at Charleston, beating Stosur 6-1 6-1 in the semis and Safarova 6-0 6-1 in the final), I reckon if she's in the mood, she's more than capable of clearing it.

On the other hand, Serena does say she's not a morning person, and this is a fairly early start, so maybe that might count against her a little bit.

Good luck to both of you anyway.
 
Woz and Dolgo doing thir job, I am adding some more plays,
and namely a wimpy solid treble
Del Potro(vs Cilic) x Ferrer(vs Almagro) x Federer(vs Gasquet) @ 1.78 Pinnacle (2/10)

and

Del Potro - 4 > Cilic @1.862 Pinnacle (1/10)

Cilic 1st serve percentage is terrible, Delpo solid against Youzhny, I reckon Delpo is going to
punish Cilic severely. Ferrer is clearly better than Almagro at present days. Federer vs Gasquet
might seem risky as Gasquet did actually beat Federer last year in Rome, but after having seen
Fedex yesterday against Raonic, I trust him he will grind out the victory.
 
homunculus said:
Wawrinka +4 > Djokovic @2.03 Pinnacle (3/10) 6-7 4-6 :thumb
Dolgopolov vs Tsonga over 22.5 games @1.971 Pinnacle (3/10) 7-5 3-6 7-6 :thumb
Monfils to bt Berdych @3.55 Pinnacle (1/10) 1-6 1-6 :duh
Wozniacki +5 > Serena Williams @ 2.07 Pinnacle (3/10) 6-1 3-6 2-6 :thumb
Click to expand...
homunculus said:
Del Potro(vs Cilic) x Ferrer(vs Almagro) x Federer(vs Gasquet) @ 1.78 Pinnacle (2/10) (6-2 6-4)x(7-6 3-6 7-6)x(6-3 6-2) :thumb
Del Potro - 4 > Cilic @1.862 Pinnacle (1/10) 6-2 6-4 :thumb
Click to expand...

Not bad. Li Na vs Vika still pending.
update
homunculus said:
Li Na to bt Azarenka @2.880 Pinnacle (2/10) 6-3 3-6 3-6 :duh:puke
Click to expand...

Got some new plays for today at slihtly higher stakes

Dolgopolov +4.5 > Del Potro @2.02 Pinnacle (5/10)
Del Potro had nice win against Cilic (as expected), but he looked a bit tired
IMO. Dolgo is beast on clay, and DelPo being a 1.18ish fav over him is unjustified.
Cilic had awful 1st serve, and made the life easy for Delpo, but Dolgo was quite
fine in this respect, and just scored two nice wins over big hitters Seppi
and Tsonga. I would not be that surprised if Dolgo won this, but I stay in nice
priced plus HCP. They met twice on hard so far, and Dolgo covered the hcp in both matches.

Djokovic vs Tipsarevic over 20.5 games @1.926 (5/10)
Djoker getting better and better on smurf clay. But his matches with Tipsa are
always tight battles. Tipsa even defeated him in last year's London Masters Final.
Everytime these two met, and the match did not end WO or RET, it went
over this line.

Hradecka +5 > Stosur @1.990 Pinnacle (3/10)
I keep riding Hradecka here. I backed her on +7 hcp against Kvitova,
and I keep backing her against Stosur. This girl is tall and has got powerful
serve, and knows how to play on clay. The wins over Kvitova and Makarova
should have given her confidence. Stosur struggled a bit in R1 against big hitter
Martic, I reckon one break a set is what Lucie can achieve in this match.
 
Hradecka (+4.5 games) vs Stosur @ 2.2 with Betfair

Shes beaten Kvitova in straights, it was pretty comprehensive today as well. Its shown already this Madrid Masters, that those shitty slippery blue clay courts are pathetic as its somewhat hard to change direction on. That's why the big hitters are excelling, their game is based around not moving so much anyway... right?

Stosur is renound for struggling against big hitters and the conditions don't suit her, this was proven in her long tussle against Mchale, who also prefers faster surfaces.

The courts are faster than generic clay courts as I've said before and with the sort of percentages Hradecka's been serving, I can it being a long hard tussle for same this one.

£41

6/10 in the confidence stakes

Hradecka vs Stosur over 19.5 games @ 1.76 with Betfair

Odds are a little silly for this line considering all that I've said.

£41

7/10 in the confidence stakes
 
Berdych to beat Verdasco 2-0 @ 1.98 with Betfair

As I've said this surface suits big hitter, Nadal could barely defend yesterday and his rally shot was so shallow that Verdasco was T-ing up and using his footwork to get around the ball onto his favourite forehand.

Berdych won't allow Nando the time to do this, Nando will have his moments of head-caseness during the match and once he goes a break down I see Berdych hitting massive serves and unleashing the forehand, Nando might stay with him and make one set relatively tight, but in the end, Tomas will prevail quite easily.

6/10

£51
 
Oh well, Dolgo was disgusting. Though the Dolgo+4.5 bet loss was tight, and basically it
was about who will serve first. But I could not see coming this:

Dolgo 1st serve % in
vs Anduchar 52%
vs Seppi 47%
vs Tsonga 61%
vs Del Potro 31% :puke:cry
 
update to lost Li Na vs Vika bet:
homunculus said:
Dolgopolov +4.5 > Del Potro @2.02 Pinnacle (5/10) 3-6 4-6 :puke:cry
Djokovic vs Tipsarevic over 20.5 games @1.926 (5/10) 6-7 3-6 :thumb
Hradecka +5 > Stosur @1.990 Pinnacle (3/10) 7-6 7-6 :thumb
Click to expand...
basically I broke evens (+0.6 pts) today.

And I take this one SF early

Berdych to bt Del Potro @2.56 Pinnacle (10/10)
The odds are no doubt a result of H2H (3-2 for DelPo, last 3 matches won by DelPo).But I have
been watching the matches of both, and I was hoping for Brdy around 1.8-1.9 in which case
I would have grabbed it without hesitation. 2.56 was huge surprise. Thank you bookies. Now
why? Delpo's last two wins (Cilic and Dolgo) were determined by rather poor service games
from the opponents (Dolgo 31% first serve in, oh my lord, Cilic 42%), and DelPo's huge serve.
Actually, Dolgo was better in longer rallies, but was punished in his 2nd serves, and too high
number of unforceds. Berdy, on the other hand, rolls in thi tournament and I was wrong to go
against him in the Monfils match. He did not lost serve (offered only 3 breakpoints), not to speak
about a set in this tournament so far, and won all 3 matches in straights. DelPo lost serve 4
times in 4 matches, and had to play tie-break against Youzhny. He also seemed to me little bit
tired in his last two matches, he was moving slow (that's why he was worse in longer rallies),
and in his today's match it seemed to me he has problems with his right shoulder. All in all, I
rate Berdy's shape better now, and I am willing to put the substantial part of my this week's
profit on this match. The 10/10 mark is not confidence (which would mean certainity), but it
reflects the fact that I am willing to put maximum allowed stake on this. I shall give plus HCP
a thought after the line appears on Pinny.

adding

Hradecka to bt S.Williams @8.88 Pinnacle (1/10)
This again is a speculative bet. Actually, Hradecka has already been in four WTA finals
(has won none), so playing SF should not be that big mental stress for her. Also,
she already met Serena once last year in Cinci, and it ended 3-6 6-7. So she know
she can play competitive against Serena. Now Serena is known to exhibit mental lapses
when the things do not go the way she wants (just remember last year's US Open final
against Stosur, and her loss to Makarova this year in AO).This bet is based on the assumption
that Serena loses her nerves after Lucie places her 15 or so aces in the court, and collapses.
Alternatively, you can get nice +6 hcp above evens, but because my main bet of the day is
berdy vs DelPo, and I do not want to split funds that much because I trust Berdy more than
bloody WTA, I place just a small amount on speculative bet, because I would be pissed off if
this went through and I missed it.

edit 2: I could not resist, I am adding
Hradecka + 6.5 > S.Williams @2.00 Pinnacle (5/10)
Too tempting considering Hradecka in top form.
 
ImLovinIt said:
Hradecka (+4.5 games) vs Stosur @ 2.2 with Betfair

Shes beaten Kvitova in straights, it was pretty comprehensive today as well. Its shown already this Madrid Masters, that those shitty slippery blue clay courts are pathetic as its somewhat hard to change direction on. That's why the big hitters are excelling, their game is based around not moving so much anyway... right?

Stosur is renound for struggling against big hitters and the conditions don't suit her, this was proven in her long tussle against Mchale, who also prefers faster surfaces.

The courts are faster than generic clay courts as I've said before and with the sort of percentages Hradecka's been serving, I can it being a long hard tussle for same this one.

£41

6/10 in the confidence stakes

Hradecka vs Stosur over 19.5 games @ 1.76 with Betfair

Odds are a little silly for this line considering all that I've said.

£41

7/10 in the confidence stakes
Click to expand...

Oh yh baby!
 
ImLovinIt said:
Berdych to beat Verdasco 2-0 @ 1.98 with Betfair

As I've said this surface suits big hitter, Nadal could barely defend yesterday and his rally shot was so shallow that Verdasco was T-ing up and using his footwork to get around the ball onto his favourite forehand.

Berdych won't allow Nando the time to do this, Nando will have his moments of head-caseness during the match and once he goes a break down I see Berdych hitting massive serves and unleashing the forehand, Nando might stay with him and make one set relatively tight, but in the end, Tomas will prevail quite easily.

6/10

£51
Click to expand...

SIc!
 
S, Williams vs Hrdenka, over 18.5 games @ Evens with Unibet

Ridiculous line!

Yes, Serena is a brilliant returner and yes she absolutely shitted on Sharapova, BUT Hrdenka has been serving missles and her groundstrokes have been mother chodding stupidly devastating!

Serena needs to break her twice in atleast one set for this line not to meet and who says Hrdenka won't take her to a tie break in one? Or a 7-5?

£250

7/10

Yes, yes, I know, I jus feel this girl's in the zone right now and on the surface Serena's going to have a battle on her hands breaking through!

Azerenka to beat Radwanska 2-0 @ 1.8 with Coral

Its gonna happen again and all the more reason this time, Radwanska won't be able to push even a jot on this surface against the World number 1.

£150

8/10 in the confidence stakes

Del Potro vs Berdych, Over 22.5 games @ 1.94 with Betfair

Massive servers these both, both with lethal forehands and both suit this surface down to the bloody T.

Both are in amazing form!

One tie break is a surety and the chances of a double break in 1 set are very low ... should go to 3 sets but if either wins in 2 ... you'd still fancy this line to be met.

£300

9/10 in the confidence stakes
 
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