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Beanie's Golf System

Beanie

Active Member
A system from......elsewhere....where it finished up with around a 10% yield, but will start again from scratch here.

When I say in running i'll just stick to pre-round bets as in round bets aren't verifiable.

Selections are based on two things:

a) how well players 'respond' to poor holes - I noticed that a lot of those that came into contention in the closing rounds of tournaments are those that have been following up bogies or worse with birdies or better on the holes immediately after the setback. The mental side of golf is very important and it seems that this factor serves as a good indicator for who is 'in the zone' in that particular week.

For example, a player can be leading after a low round, but if they rattled off six birdies early on but failed to make any further after their first bogey, then often when further bogies come in later rounds, which they will do, those players often struggle to stabilise their rounds, and when under pressure can begin to sink down the leaderboard without a trace. The converse seems to be true as well, or atleast I hope to prove it is.

b) a player's 'winning potential' - likewise, getting over the finishing line can be a tricky thing in golf, particularly for those that haven't won before, for those that are playing alongside experienced players in the final group, or for those that know a strong pack is chasing them, even if a) is true.

So based on a combination of those things, I'll attempt to judge a player's 'winning potential', add it in to a) and come up with some value punts.

What often seems to happen is that despite great form, great course record etc etc, a players mindset can vary wildly from week to week, and this can make pre tournament betting a bit of a struggle, and so I've found 2 rounds minimum are needed on which to base these decisions, and so bets will only be made prior to rounds 3 and 4.

---------------------

Small stakes start in the Portugal Masters tomorrow:

1pt Peter Hanson @ 6.8
1pt Thomas Bjorn @ 6.8
0.75 pts Christian Nilsson @ 7.80
 
The 'b' part is made up of a few things AS.

The most obvious one being whether they have won before, how regularly they win when in contention, other factors like age (being young is often a good thing in terms of players who havent won before) - also knowing what players are playing for. There's a lot of pros who each year are scrapping to keep their tour card for the year after - if they fail then it's a year back on the challenge tour, or worse, the end of their life as a touring pro golfer. If one of those pros finds themselves in contention, then they are less likely to attack and go for the win as finishing top 5 and securing a big cheque is the most important thing. Conversely, players with little to gain by finishing high up (Mickelson a prime example) will just go for everything on the final day.

So it's not much of a 'system' as such - quite a bit of opinion goes into the 'b' part. This week was small stakes as it was a bit of a birdie fest - the 'a' generally needs there to be quite a few bogies around to be at it's most reliable, and there were very few this week.

-2.75pts so far - more next week (NB historical stats are +20% European tour, -11% PGA tour, so generally not bothering with the latter!)
 
Yeah in good positions with 6 or 7 holes to play, but both struggled to get anything going as Tom Lewis (young 'un who made his name at the Open this year) stormed away down the back 9. Hanson attacked almost every pin in an attempt to get the birdies to stay in contention and paid the price with a very messy finish, Nilsson didn't ever look comfortable on the run in.
 
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