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Day 1 - Tuesday 13th March 2018
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ONEDUNME
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Little plug for Bet365, Paddy Power and Skybet who are the only ones going non-runner no bet on all races.
Bet365 deserve the most plaudits because they are also best odds guaranteed and will usually take a bet whereas Skybet are a joke of a company who will offer extra places on the day but will only let you have 80p each way on if you win a few bets with them. Paddy Power usually offer something extra on day one so I would advise anyone NOT to place a bet on antepost markets.
Sooooooo, I've obviously not taken my own advise because I'm impatient so, for small stakes, I've had a bit on Kaleshnikov each way at 8/1 in the opening race the Supreme Novice, currently best price 11/2 with anyone offering NRNB but, before anyone accuses me of boasting, most of the bets I place will go off at bigger prices on the day. They do every year.
In the Arkle, I'm on Footpad which I backed at 15/8 and again at 4/5 (now evens). Unusually, I do actually have one fancy on day one and this is it (and has been for a while now). As I see it, it's a two-horse race between that and Petit Mouchoir but this is the festival.
I haven't backed anything in race three the Ultima Handicap but I'm struggling to see how Singlefarmpayment can possibly be any shorter than 20/1. It's half that price. Brilliant run last year where it looked comfortable all the way round and finished 2nd in the same race. In the last 3 months it has fallen, finished 5th and pulled up. I wouldn't back it to finish, let alone win.
So get on it
Champion Hurdle - I've laid Buveur D'air for no good reason than the price is ridiculous (or was, with weeks to go before the race)
Mares Hurdle. Many of these will no doubt be entered into more than one race and, in any event, I can't see anything but an Apples Jade win.
National Hunt Chase. If today was the day of the race I'd be backing Presenting Percy and looking for at least two others at big prices. No bets placed yet.
Close Brothers Handicap. Gonna be at least three each way bets for me in this one and I haven't placed a bet yet but Movewiththetimes will probably be the first one at 10/1. I won't keep going on about how much JP McManus' horses have made me at the festivals over the years because I've done that every year.
I think Barney Dwan will be favorite on the day.
Bet365 deserve the most plaudits because they are also best odds guaranteed and will usually take a bet whereas Skybet are a joke of a company who will offer extra places on the day but will only let you have 80p each way on if you win a few bets with them. Paddy Power usually offer something extra on day one so I would advise anyone NOT to place a bet on antepost markets.
Sooooooo, I've obviously not taken my own advise because I'm impatient so, for small stakes, I've had a bit on Kaleshnikov each way at 8/1 in the opening race the Supreme Novice, currently best price 11/2 with anyone offering NRNB but, before anyone accuses me of boasting, most of the bets I place will go off at bigger prices on the day. They do every year.
In the Arkle, I'm on Footpad which I backed at 15/8 and again at 4/5 (now evens). Unusually, I do actually have one fancy on day one and this is it (and has been for a while now). As I see it, it's a two-horse race between that and Petit Mouchoir but this is the festival.
I haven't backed anything in race three the Ultima Handicap but I'm struggling to see how Singlefarmpayment can possibly be any shorter than 20/1. It's half that price. Brilliant run last year where it looked comfortable all the way round and finished 2nd in the same race. In the last 3 months it has fallen, finished 5th and pulled up. I wouldn't back it to finish, let alone win.
So get on it
Champion Hurdle - I've laid Buveur D'air for no good reason than the price is ridiculous (or was, with weeks to go before the race)
Mares Hurdle. Many of these will no doubt be entered into more than one race and, in any event, I can't see anything but an Apples Jade win.
National Hunt Chase. If today was the day of the race I'd be backing Presenting Percy and looking for at least two others at big prices. No bets placed yet.
Close Brothers Handicap. Gonna be at least three each way bets for me in this one and I haven't placed a bet yet but Movewiththetimes will probably be the first one at 10/1. I won't keep going on about how much JP McManus' horses have made me at the festivals over the years because I've done that every year.
I think Barney Dwan will be favorite on the day.
ONEDUNME
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Trends, comments and stuff
Atheraces says
Supreme Novices.
Positives
Four of the last 15 winners finished in the first five in the previous season’s Champion Bumper making it the best guide in recent seasons.
Trained in Ireland (notably by Willie Mullins)
Three runs or more over hurdles
Front runners
Contested last season's Champion Bumper
Negatives
Likely to start at under 3/1. Ten of the last 13 favourites to be sent off at 2/1 or shorter in the Supreme were beaten. Getabird 7/4 FAV
Beaten last time out
Ran on the flat
Not run during the last 45 days
Next Destination finished fourth in last year's bumper, won last time out. Has had 3 runs over hurdles. Not a front runner but has been handy in recent runs. Not trained my Mr Mullins but trained in Ireland by Mrs Mullins. Best price (with NRNB) 14/1
Unfortunately also has entries for two other races.
Western Ryder finished fifth in last year's bumper and has had more than three runs over hurdles but beaten last time out, not trained in Ireland. Again, not the front running type. Best price 33/1
Atheraces says
Supreme Novices.
Positives
Four of the last 15 winners finished in the first five in the previous season’s Champion Bumper making it the best guide in recent seasons.
Trained in Ireland (notably by Willie Mullins)
Three runs or more over hurdles
Front runners
Contested last season's Champion Bumper
Negatives
Likely to start at under 3/1. Ten of the last 13 favourites to be sent off at 2/1 or shorter in the Supreme were beaten. Getabird 7/4 FAV
Beaten last time out
Ran on the flat
Not run during the last 45 days
Next Destination finished fourth in last year's bumper, won last time out. Has had 3 runs over hurdles. Not a front runner but has been handy in recent runs. Not trained my Mr Mullins but trained in Ireland by Mrs Mullins. Best price (with NRNB) 14/1
Unfortunately also has entries for two other races.
Western Ryder finished fifth in last year's bumper and has had more than three runs over hurdles but beaten last time out, not trained in Ireland. Again, not the front running type. Best price 33/1
ONEDUNME
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Arkle Positives
Trained by Willie Mullins or Henderson
Highest rated hurdler
Won or placed at festival (notably a novice hurdle)
Ran in the November Novices’ Chase, Henry VIII Novices’ Chase or Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase
Negatives
5 Year old
Likely to start 12/1+
Not officially rated 142+
Favourite Footpad seems to tick most of the right boxes. Even money
Trained by Willie Mullins or Henderson
Highest rated hurdler
Won or placed at festival (notably a novice hurdle)
Ran in the November Novices’ Chase, Henry VIII Novices’ Chase or Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase
Negatives
5 Year old
Likely to start 12/1+
Not officially rated 142+
Favourite Footpad seems to tick most of the right boxes. Even money
ONEDUNME
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Ultima Handicap. Last year's winner made something of a mockery of previous trends, being the first winner rated over 150 in 35 years but, for what it's worth
Likely to start in first four in betting (although, as Seen has pointed out, favorites don't do well so make of that what you will).
Won last time out
Won or placed at a previous festival
Prepped over hurdles (notably the cleeve hurdle)
Owned by JP McManus
Trained by Jonjo O'Neill, David Pipe, Alan King or Neil Mulholland
Negatives, Aged 11+ and trained by Paul Nicholls
The only last time out winners I can see with a previous festival place are Coo Star Sivola 10/1 (been money for it recently) and Gold Present 8/1
Likely to start in first four in betting (although, as Seen has pointed out, favorites don't do well so make of that what you will).
Won last time out
Won or placed at a previous festival
Prepped over hurdles (notably the cleeve hurdle)
Owned by JP McManus
Trained by Jonjo O'Neill, David Pipe, Alan King or Neil Mulholland
Negatives, Aged 11+ and trained by Paul Nicholls
The only last time out winners I can see with a previous festival place are Coo Star Sivola 10/1 (been money for it recently) and Gold Present 8/1
ONEDUNME
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Champion hurdle positives
Trained in Ireland or by Nicky Henderson
Finished in the first four at last season’s Cheltenham Festival
Contested the Fighting Fifth Hurdle (for each-way purposes)
Negatives
Five-year-olds (for win-only purposes)
Aged 10+
Not run during the same calendar year
Unplaced in last year’s race
Odds on fav Buveur D'air?
Trained in Ireland or by Nicky Henderson
Finished in the first four at last season’s Cheltenham Festival
Contested the Fighting Fifth Hurdle (for each-way purposes)
Negatives
Five-year-olds (for win-only purposes)
Aged 10+
Not run during the same calendar year
Unplaced in last year’s race
Odds on fav Buveur D'air?
Punter
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As mentioned in the early thoughts thread i fancy SIZING TENNESSE. Runs in the National Hunt Challenge Cup for Amateur riders. Got the going he'll appreciate, knows the course well. My only concern is a different joc in saddle. I'm on E.W @ 10/1
Kegman
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A few i got on ante post are now favs so I've scored a few points so just need them to win now.
1.30 Getabird (ante) / Western Ryder (ew)
2.10 Footpad (ante) but think Saint Calvados will give it a good race
2.50 Singlefarmpayment
3.30 Faugheen (ante) / My Tent Or Yours (ew)
4.10 Apples Jade
4.50 Jury Duty
5.30 Any Second Now / Mister Whitaker
I haven't backed all the short prices favs tomorrow but I have done a short priced treble for the week and first one goes tomorrow.
Apples Jade
Un De Sceaux (Thursday)
Laurina (Thursday)
Good luck everybody and let's hope all the horses come home safely and that the bookies take a pumping.
1.30 Getabird (ante) / Western Ryder (ew)
2.10 Footpad (ante) but think Saint Calvados will give it a good race
2.50 Singlefarmpayment
3.30 Faugheen (ante) / My Tent Or Yours (ew)
4.10 Apples Jade
4.50 Jury Duty
5.30 Any Second Now / Mister Whitaker
I haven't backed all the short prices favs tomorrow but I have done a short priced treble for the week and first one goes tomorrow.
Apples Jade
Un De Sceaux (Thursday)
Laurina (Thursday)
Good luck everybody and let's hope all the horses come home safely and that the bookies take a pumping.
ONEDUNME
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Good to see The Racing Post Spotlight writers sticking their necks out for tomorrow...
FAV
FAV
FAV
FAV
FAV
3rd FAV
FAV
No wonder they're putting the price of the paper up with top tipping like that
S
SAMOAN
Guest
1.30 - DAME ROSE - Grade 2 Bumper / listed hurdle winner and fair fourth last time out at Donnie. Suspicion she might just prefer better ground, but does have enough form on the going to merit consideration and definite place prospects on her best form. Tongue tie added and for me, looks a little big at 66's.
2.50 - COGRY - Goes on the ground, is a capable stayer and has won last 2 course starts. Not in the best of form lately, but a revival here would not be a huge shock at 16's.
5.30 - KAYF ADVENTURE - May not be up to this level, but arrives here in decent form and does have plenty of form on the ground. Fair upset potential at 33's.
2.50 - COGRY - Goes on the ground, is a capable stayer and has won last 2 course starts. Not in the best of form lately, but a revival here would not be a huge shock at 16's.
5.30 - KAYF ADVENTURE - May not be up to this level, but arrives here in decent form and does have plenty of form on the ground. Fair upset potential at 33's.
ONEDUNME
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The light type is my orginal post and the bold is my update
130
Sooooooo, I've obviously not taken my own advice because I'm impatient so, for small stakes, I've had a bit on Kaleshnikov each way at 8/1 in the opening race the Supreme Novice, currently best price 11/2 with anyone offering NRNB but, before anyone accuses me of boasting, most of the bets I place will go off at bigger prices on the day. They do every year.
I was looking at adding Mengli Khan with the excellent Jack Kennedy on board but, as much as I try to let the prices not put me off, an overnight drift from 8/1 to 16/1 can't be anything but a massive positive so I've replaced it with Summerville Boy at 8/1 with a firm offering money back as a free bet if you lose the first race.
My outsider at a bigger price is Us and Them (another good young jockey on board). 40/1 4 places 1/4 odds but I've gone 5 places at 33/1 with Bet365.
In the Arkle, I'm on Footpad which I backed at 15/8 and again at 4/5 (now evens). Unusually, I do actually have one fancy on day one and this is it (and has been for a while now). As I see it, it's a two-horse race between that and Petit Mouchoir but this is the festival.
Nothing to add to that. This is my most fancied horse of the week but, this being day one, the money I have down on it won't reflect that. Nothing worse than doing your stash on the first day. I've had a wee forecast on PM and Saint Calvados in that order in case my falls.
I haven't backed anything in race three the Ultima Handicap but I'm struggling to see how Singlefarmpayment can possibly be any shorter than 20/1. It's half that price. Brilliant run last year where it looked comfortable all the way round and finished 2nd in the same race. In the last 3 months it has fallen, finished 5th and pulled up. I wouldn't back it to finish, let alone win.
So get on it
No doubt I'll be proven wrong but the price for SFP still baffles me. Best price 8/1 at the moment. I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't finish.
Coo Star Sivola which I backed ew on 1st of March at 12/1 and I'm going for each way bets on the Bowen brothers on Minella Daddy and Shantou Flyer, both 20/1 5places 1/5 the odds.
Champion Hurdle - I've laid Buveur D'air for no good reason than the price is ridiculous (or was, with weeks to go before the race)
I can't even remember why I backed Elgin but Apparently I have ew at 20/1. I'm adding and ew bet on Wicklow Brave at 14/1.
Mares Hurdle. Many of these will no doubt be entered into more than one race and, in any event, I can't see anything but an Apples Jade win.
Short as it is, I've got to go Apples Jade and an each way on Jers Girl at 14/1
National Hunt Chase. If today was the day of the race I'd be backing Presenting Percy and looking for at least two others at big prices. No bets placed yet.
Presenting Percy won't run in this race and is favorite for a different race. I'm abandoning the each way and going for three to win Jury Duty, No Comment and Sizing Tennessee (using a free bet) 6/1, 9/1 and 9/1. I've also had a reverse forecast on Jury Duty and Sizing Tennesee and if that wins, including the returns from the win bet, I won't be down on the day.
Close Brothers Handicap. Gonna be at least three each way bets for me in this one and I haven't placed a bet yet but Movewiththetimes will probably be the first one at 10/1. I won't keep going on about how much JP McManus' horses have made me at the festivals over the years because I've done that every year.
I think Barney Dwan will be favorite on the day.
I backed Barney Dwan a week or so ago (8/1 and is now 10/1) and I added Any Second Now last night at 13/2. My each way bet is Jack Kennedy again on Tycoon Prince 16/1.
Good luck to all
