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Double Chance

K

Korona

Guest
Hello everyone I want to proof a new system that I am working on.
If I am in the wrong thread then no doubt someone will tell me.
basically it is betting on outsiders but giving them a double chance.
I am going to start with a bank of 200 and each bet will be 5

Hearts v Hibs X or 2 @ 1.91
Last 27 meetings at Tynecastle Hibs have got something in 50% of the games

Rio Ave v Olhanense X or 2 @ 1.73
Olhanense have a 100% record away to Rio Ave (even though they only played 2 games)

Nacional v Benfica 1 or X @ 2.25
Last 9 games at home Nacional have taken something from Benfica in 5 of them

Vitoria Guimares v Beira mar X or 2 @ 1.91
Since 1998 they have met 14 times and Beira mar have lost 4
 
Good luck with this Mate :thumb

I Like your thinking clap
 
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All the best.

Am I correct in thinking you are backing the outsider and draw, in effect laying the fav. Sorry if I haven't understood it fully but I am declining with age.

Cheers beamer
 
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Yes you are right there beamer, nothing wrong with your age.
Didn't think that way but must check the odds ...... don't usually think about laying, well sometimes but not with betfair
 
Hearts v Hibs X or 2 @ 1.91
Last 27 meetings at Tynecastle Hibs have got something in 50% of the games

Rio Ave v Olhanense X or 2 @ 1.73
Olhanense have a 100% record away to Rio Ave (even though they only played 2 games)

Nacional v Benfica 1 or X @ 2.25
Last 9 games at home Nacional have taken something from Benfica in 5 of them

Vitoria Guimares v Beira mar X or 2 @ 1.91
Since 1998 they have met 14 times and Beira mar have lost 4

Hearts v Hibs 2-0 :frown
Rio Ave v Olhanense 0-1clap
Guimares v Beira Mar 0-3 clap

Waiting on Nacional 2moro for a half decent start, maybe they can take Benfica as they could not beat Birmingham.
 
Nacional v Benfica 0-2 :frown

Olhanense and Beira Mar returned 18.20

Bets 4
Wins 2
Bank 198.20
 
Four for the weekend, few dodgy ones coming up.

Morecambe v Crawley 1 or X @ 1.73
Morecambe have a good non league record against Crawley

Plymouth v Port Vale 1 or X @ 1.73
Plymouth got a bad start to the season but, if there previous record against any team counted this is who they would want to play. Have beaten Port Vale in their last four outings.

Villareal v Seville X or 2 @ 1.73
The Villareal defence maybe still shell shocked from the hammering Barca gave them. last 22 fixtures Seville have got something 16 times.

Pacos ferreira v Sporting Lisbon 1 or X @ 2.00
Lisbon have had a poor start to the season so Pacos can continue there good home record against them.
 
Good luck with this,

Not quite sure I understand your logic on some occasions though, it seems slightly contradictory at times. In the first week you seemed to be concentrating mainly on that precise fixture (i.e. played at the same venue, rather than all meeting between those two sides), whereas this week you seem to be taking all meetings, home or away, into account (or at least you do for the Villarreal and Port Vale games, not looked at the others).

Also, how do you decide how far back you look in the H2H? Plymouth may have beaten Port Vale in their last 4, but go back a bit further and they've won 7 lost 7 in the last 14. Sevilla might have a good record overall against Villarreal, but at Villarreal's ground they've lost 3 of the last 4.

Not intending to criticise, obviously it's your system and you're the one who determines the selections, just curious, that's all :thumb
 
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Curiosity sometimes solves a problem. Thanks rcgills for the comments and you are right about using the precise fixture.
Debateable how many seasons to go back.for the h2h especially with the amount of transfers.......take Man C as an example.
Any suggestions?

For this weeks matches
Morecambe have won 2 out of last 3 against Crawley.
Plymouth have won last 2 at home to Port Vale
Seville have got something away to Villareal in 6 of the last 11 (take your point of view on the Villareal home record):crossfingers
pacos Ferreira have lost 3 out of the last 9 at home to Sporting.
 
Not sure what to suggest really, Jtw is probably the one to ask there, given the success of his H2H system.

Personally I do take past meetings into account, but generally speaking I try not to attach that much importance to them (by which I mean I'd have to have other more convincing (to my mind) arguments in favour of backing a team, I'd be unlikely to consider a team solely based on H2H), certainly in the lower divisions. The top divisions normally have a reasonable amount of stability (barring situations like that at Man City), whereas at lower teams as you say there are so many comings and goings each season that you can potentially end up with 9 or 10 new players from one season to the next, in which case the past record isn't really going to have that much of an influence.

Clubs' situations can often change too - just look at the cases of Crawley (now rich) and Plymouth (now broke) from your selections.
 
Morecambe v Crawley 1 or X @ 1.73 6 - 0 clap

Plymouth v Port Vale 1 or X @ 1.73 0 - 2 :embarassed
Villareal v Seville X or 2 @ 1.73 2 - 2 clap

Pacos Ferreira v Sporting Lisbon 1 or X @ 2.00 2 - 3 :embarassed

Morecambe and Seville pay 17.30
Another loss

Bets 8
Wins 4
Bank 195.50
 
Three games this weekend.

Parma v Chievo X or 2 @ 1.8
Chievo have managed something 5 out of the last 8 visits to Parma

Seville v R.Sociedad X or 2 @ 2.38
Sociedad have got results in 50% of last 10 games at Seville.

Man U v Chelsea X or 2 @ 2.00
Best record at Old Trafford recently. Chelsea have won 4 and drew 6 of the last 16 games at Manchester.
 
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