I've had a few tentative thoughts but it's difficult when you don't know what horses are going to what races. Obviously everyone likes to watch the class horses run but as a betting proposition they are no use to man nor beast. In fact, I've laid the short priced favorites for small stakes in the hope that they will either not make it to the starting line or will fall or otherwise get themselves beat.
For me, you may as well throw the form book out of the window for Cheltenham week. It's all bollocks and if you don't believe me, you can look at the results for any year and look at the relevant racecard. If it was all about pounds and ounces and previous winning margins there would be no 66/1 winners. If I had someone in front of me who was going into their first festival asking if I had any advice, I'd say, don't let any price put you off your pick. Whether you're following a certain jockey, or a stable, or backing horses that you've backed previously or whether you're actually spending hours studying form, I'd say decide how much you're going to have on a bet and put the same amount on a 20/1 shot as you would a 2/1 shot. You will make more money in the long term backing at prices over 10/1 than you will backing at under 10/1 and you only need maybe one winners and some places to make a profit over the 28 races.
I'd also advise not to back ANYTHING based solely on something that some geyser (no matter how highly respected) said on one of the preview nights or in the newspaper or internet article. Likewise, don't let any of them talk you out of backing anything with a comment that they won't get the trip or like the ground or some other shite.
My own approach is to not take the gambling too seriously for that week. It's mainly a fucking lottery so I don't invest too much time studying, only to find that the horse that has only ran once in the last year pops up to win at 25/1 because that win gave it just the rating that it needed to get into a particular race and the trainer was holding it back because it knew it was fully capable of winning that race with that handicap mark.
I tend to back horses/jockeys/trainers that I have backed before. I do (slightly contradicting what I've just said) like to be with horses that ran well (not necessarily winning) in the big Irish meetings around Xmas time as they often throw up profit making horses. I reckon those runs often make a trainers mind up IF a horse is going to run at the festival and, if so, in which race.
The jockey's I'll be following this year are Jack Kennedy, the Bowen brothers, Briony Frost and Richie Mclernon if he has any rides.
There's nothing particularly genius about picking out these jockeys as many will be on the first four of them but the thing is to back them on EVERY ride (prices permitting - obviously you can't back them all in a 10 runner race at 5/1 or something daft
) and not just the ones they're at the top end of the market on because they will pop up with big priced winners and places to put a smile on the faces of the faithful.
I set out every year in the knowledge that I'm unlikely to get my money back by the end of the week but I almost always do better than expected and often return a profit. I'm just hoping this weather doesn't ruin the week.
