English Premier League betting 26-28th April

[Punter]

lol. I'm just getting shit from everywhere at the minute, people ripping into me about Sunday. Even the son law went over the top, LOL'ING IN MY FACE! with Gerrard cock up, and he's a Villla fan! Cnut.

 

[Seen]

Do you always try and level out (to a degree) Seen? In most cases i mean. Or if you fancy something reasonably strongly then go for gold with it and have smaller prizes if you get it wrong. More often than not which do you tend to do?

Well, 99% of my betting is in-running on the horses, and I always try and 'green up' when I can though not necessarily leveling out (things happen too quickly to be precise as I input my bets manually and use good old brain-power to work out the maths rather than an automated one-click trading assistant). But that style of betting is a different concept altogether, while my Liverpool bet was, as I stated in my original post, always meant to be a fun bet with a view to trade - I didn't really expect Liverpool to win but I was confident that 14/1 was far too big and would shorten, I was originally going to lay off the win part and keep the place part to give some interest for the rest of the season, but when 'pool kept on winning every game it gave me the opportunity to lock in a decent profit.

I know you've said previously that you're kicking yourself for laying so much of your Liverpool bet off, but it's always easy in hindsight. I remember a couple of years ago my brother had backed over 8.5 goals in a match, he had a tenner on at something like 180/1, so he stood to win £1,800. On the 70 min mark there had been 8 goals and he rang me up to ask for advice, I told him to lay off at the 1.5 or whatever it was to guarantee a decent return whatever happened (could have locked in around £1,200 profit at those odds) but he said "nah, there's 20 mins left, there's got to be another goal" and left it and it ended on 8 goals. He threw away £1,200 simply because he couldn't bear the thought of winning £600 less if there was a goal. Barmy.

Hedging your bets is something which very much boils down to the individual, how confident a gambler you are, how well you cope with losing runs, what kind of form/financial situation you are in - certainly not something that can be put down as black and white. Very rarely will you be able to call a trading bet to perfection - my Liverpool bet went well but my first lay off was at 9/1, had I waited a couple of games I could have laid at less than half those odds.

 

[Punter]

Thanks, i was hoping to read something like that, especially this part..

Hedging your bets is something which very much boils down to the individual, how confident a gambler you are, how well you cope with losing runs, what kind of form/financial situation you are in - certainly not something that can be put down as black and white. Very rarely will you be able to call a trading bet to perfection

I'm not going to focus on my Liverpool bet to much as although i'd not played it very well at all, the closer they got to the top of the league, the more i felt i wanted insurance.

I think i could of done better with my CL too, as i cant see much past Real now and if Atletico go out tonight, although a profit, i'll feel i've come out a bit short. I've probably done best out the 3 with my La Liga hedging.

I'm an absolute cnut for hitting the self exclude button on Betfair a few yrs ago. I did it twice in 3 yrs so i doubt i'll get my account back. Betdaq dont have the market up, i really could of done with laying Gerrard for SPOTY 2014 last week at odds on.

 

[ONEDUNME]

"Hedging your bets is something which very much boils down to the individual, how confident a gambler you are, how well you cope with losing runs, what kind of form/financial situation you are in "

...and how greedy you are. I would always, always, get at least some of my stake back given the opportunity. In fact, I sort of subconsciously factor it into my bets now- as in, if I were to back a horse at 9/1, I would (given the time and opportunity) put in a lay of around 2/1 or 3/1 as insurance. Likewise, if I'm looking at a price of 5/1 for a football/golf/motor-racing/tennis/whatever bet, I'm actually seeing 7/2 or4/1 in my mind.

I've had discussions on this before with Seen and I probably think I'm over cautious but it's become my style now and I never, ever begrudge the money that I've missed out on because I know there's nothing worse than near misses costing money.

On the subject of backing and laying Liverpool, I thought they were too big a price at various stages of the season but never, ever thought they'd actually win it. I backed them at 13 and 17 in September and laid off and then backed as high as 24 in January and when I got the chance to trade out at 16 I nearly snatched their hands off. I've just looked at my back and lays and, if I'd just stuck to backing and laying Liverpool I'd be sound

Potential net loss on Liverpool alone £238. Potential win £3176. So I have them at average odds of around 13/1- clever me - just a shame about the other bets

Last weekend's Liverpool Chelsea and the Man City matches cost me a few hundred in running (which is part of my hedging/laying process - one that's made me an overall profit considering Liverpool's winning streak and the City/Chelsea "shock results) but if Liverpool go on to win the league it will have saved me a four-figure sum because it gave me the opportunity to be able to lay some of City off at around 4/5 (previously around 4/1 before kick off) so even if Liverpool lift the title and I end up losing - which I think may well happen, I'm happy to have reduced my potential losses compared to the balances I was looking at this time last week. And if City go on to win, again I won't bemoan what I could have won, I will just be happy to have dodged a bullet with the big loss I was anticipating.

 

[Punter]

I would always, always, get at least some of my stake back given the opportunity. In fact, I sort of subconsciously factor it into my bets now- as in, if I were to back a horse at 9/1, I would (given the time and opportunity) put in a lay of around 2/1 or 3/1 as insurance.

Yes, i've been doing this on all my horses picks. I think it's probably cost me more doing it this year, so far. But i'm still of the opinion that it's the right thing to do. Every time.

The prem outright has been brilliant to back and lay in this year with 4 or more teams in the running for it, throughout. If Liverpool win it i've cocked it right up but as i've already mentioned it's turned out to be an insurance bet for me. Liverpool +£10, Chelsea £309, Man City £320. I only ever stood to lose £20 at most and had locked a profit in by 1st of September so i'm not going to complain.

I might have one more lay bet yet, i'll see how things are looking with 10 minutes of the season to go.

 

[peleus]

Too bad I missed this. Grats with the winners!