Euro 2012 play offs 15th November

[ThunderCelt]

Stan James down to 6/1 now but still 7/1 with PP. Personally, I wouldn't back them at that price. If I'm reading it correctly (and I may not be) they would have to get past Germany in the Semi's and Spain in the final. I'd need 9/2 just for them to do that.

I'm assuming they'll get to the semis and then the 6/1 will be generous enough to oppose them. Of course, I've made assumptions in my betting before...

 

[hotspur]

ODM,I dunno about TC but if I was betting holland at 6s(let alone 7s) I would only need them to get to the semis(to make a profit)/break even.
also,Id probably have Germany and Spain as savers(DEF Spain)

 

[swooperman]

Bosnia outplayed.....Bosnia should have beat Portugal which one methinks

Dont see either Ireland or Croatia risking injuries or anything, just keep ball, they simply dont have to win

 

[rcgills]

Thanks Hotspur . I won't leave it long tho' as (according to Wikipedia) the Dutch are among the top 4 seeds and could well have one of the 'easier' routes so I assume they'll shorten a bit.

As there are 2 relatively weak co-hosts in Ukraine and Poland who are automatically top-seeded, that means the top 4 seeds are going to be Ukraine, Poland, Spain and Holland, with the 2nd seeds Germany, Italy, and I'd guess England and France? On that basis, I'd say it's almost more of an advantage to be in the 2nd group of seeds and hoping to draw one of the hosts.

 

[ONEDUNME]

ODM,I dunno about TC but if I was betting holland at 6s(let alone 7s) I would only need them to get to the semis(to make a profit)/break even.
also,Id probably have Germany and Spain as savers(DEF Spain)

Presumably you mean you'd be laying at the semi stage if you're talking about breaking even. At the prices they are, by the time you'd hedged your Holland bet and put your saver money on Germany and Spain, I doubt you'd make any sort of profit worth having.

I know you're the antepost man hotspur - throw some hypothetical figures at me

 

[hotspur]

Well ODM,I havent worked em out yet...thats IF i were to bet on holland.
I wiil get back to you after England go 1 up!

 

[hotspur]

I can say,for now, that I would be reassessing as the tournament went on.....and I wouldnt necessarily be aiming to profit whichever team won,merely limit losses

 

[ONEDUNME]

As there are 2 relatively weak co-hosts in Ukraine and Poland who are automatically top-seeded, that means the top 4 seeds are going to be Ukraine, Poland, Spain and Holland, with the 2nd seeds Germany, Italy, and I'd guess England and France? On that basis, I'd say it's almost more of an advantage to be in the 2nd group of seeds and hoping to draw one of the hosts.

Spot on RC - about the advantage I mean. The teams would be Germany, England, Italy and Russia. 50% chance of drawing an absolute dud from the top seeds plus two other's that they've got a good chance of beating, wheres Spain and Holland are guaranteed to get one tough team in their group.

 

[ThunderCelt]

As there are 2 relatively weak co-hosts in Ukraine and Poland who are automatically top-seeded, that means the top 4 seeds are going to be Ukraine, Poland, Spain and Holland, with the 2nd seeds Germany, Italy, and I'd guess England and France? On that basis, I'd say it's almost more of an advantage to be in the 2nd group of seeds and hoping to draw one of the hosts.

I'd assumed Holland win the group and then put out one of the hosts (who I'm assuming would qualify second) in the quarters, but I can't argue with your scenario either.

 

[ONEDUNME]

That either of the hosts will qualify is a bet in itself. Obviously past world cup and euro's have shown us that the unexpected can happen.

 

[Yorkieacer]

I have no idea how Montenegro arnt winning there all over Czech missed 2 easy chances the latest a header from inside the 6 yard box, all over them 3.40 for them currently looks good with how there playing Czech got everyone back

 

[hotspur]

right ODM,Im watching Frasier so dunno if England have scored...
All I can say is this.....firstly,I doubt that any antepost prices on the euros will,at any point be value.
I usually concentrate on top goal scorer markets.
2nd) any antepost bets I did would therefore,to a lagre extent,be for entertainment/interest purposes.
3rd) TC says that Holland are value,they may be but even if not they are a team that has a very good chance of getting to the semis so a good size bet on them is something I would consider
4th)but,if I did,I would certainly have Spain as a saver even though they are not value.if they get kod before the semis...the price on holland would fall significantly.if they get to the semis then i would/coulld well be on holland and Spain.
5th)as far as Germany is concerned,my saver on them would probably not be as big as the one on Spain...but I would assess this bet only once I have read extensively the racing post ,the racing and football outlook and,of course,taken on board the thoughts/advice of all the tipping sites I belong to..

okie dokie so foigures...if I HAD to bet right now I would have £200 on holland,£160 on Spain.380 on Germany at best odds.

and the point is ,I would reassess my position at the QF stage.
as for laying,I tend not to lay,whoever holland face in the semis I would place a bet on their opponents the size of which would reflect,once again,everything I read about their chances/price.
hope some of that makes sense...or is it time for me to retire

 

[hotspur]

that should be £80 on germany

 

[ONEDUNME]

£440 staked for a profit of

£1160 If Holland win
£120 if Spain win

Loss of £80 if Germany win

Mmmm. Makes sense. Of course you've then got your additional hedge bets (same principle as laying I suppose) to dilute your winnings further.

What I like to do at the knock out stage is to lay my team over 90minutes. That way, only if they win over 90 minutes do you dilute your winnings. If they go on to lose on pens or ET you get a bit back and if they go on to win on pens or ET you have increased your pot.

 

[hotspur]

the point is that I may decide not to hedge on holland(especially if they were playing England)in the semis or only hege a small amount or they may be playing Germany

 

[hotspur]

I think the point is ODM I am happy to take a risk if I like the position-I am a pro gambler after all.
its just that I have the option

 

[slick]

I have no idea how Montenegro arnt winning there all over Czech missed 2 easy chances the latest a header from inside the 6 yard box, all over them 3.40 for them currently looks good with how there playing Czech got everyone back

Tell me about it Yorke, Montenegro possession is unbelievable but they can't put the bastard ball in the net.
still 15 mins to go yet.

 

[slick]

, you won't beleive some of these Montenegro misses, you just feel in won't be their night and will get sucker punched.

 

[slick]

And there it is, Czechs 1-0 up.

 

[hotspur]

thats a good idea re the 90 mins