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Eurovision Song Contest Betting 10th - 14nd May 2022

Beanie

Active Member
As inevitable as another wave of Covid but much more enjoyable, Eurovision is coming round again.

All songs now confirmed, Recap below:


Pretty weak year this year, a lot of complete dross (I know, I know, what do you expect...)

Ukraine worthy favourites based on the current European situation - is easy to see them topping the televote (not to mention the huge Ukrainian diaspora which is dispersing throughout Europe). I'm not sure that the juries will oblige the fairytale ending though.

Very possible that Ukraine will continue to shorten, particularly in the days before the contest, and driving some value in the other contenders.

Sweden strikes me as the most complete package at the moment and anything around 6/1 or 7/1 which is coming up from time to time offers some great each way value, as it's difficult to see it outside the top 4 given the level of competition. Big backing track/string composition will carry the song on the night, and Sweden will get it's usual heavy dose of jury love.

Best value I can see at the moment is Armenia Top 10 @ 3/1+. Eastern European countries singing western chart friendly songs in English always gets me very interested. The song is slightly dull for a Eurovision entry, but I think its a little underrated - the Lumineers-esque sound will find some jury love imo, and the recorded backing vocals will carry the song well. Good price for a country with a solid diaspora vote (although this type of entry may not motivate the expats to much extent.)

UK entry our best for years - engaging singer with a great voice, memorable song, and solid scope for a captivating stage show. Left hand side of the scoreboard beckons.
 
Bloody hell, this has soon come round again.
As you say Beanie, under the current climate it would be hard to bet against Ukraine.
Saying that Russia will still probably finish above us if they are allowed to enter.
 
Russia already banned slick - everyone saying our sanctions should be tougher but tbh I dont think you can get anything bigger than being kicked out of Eurovision :eek:
 
Heard the British entry for the first time on the radio this week and it didn't sound too bad.
I wouldn't read too much into that mind as everybody still seems to have it in for us lol.
 
UK up to 2nd favourite :eek and Ukraine into heavy odds on. Back tomorrow night with some semi final 1 thoughts.
 
Semi final 1 - quick thoughts. Not high in confidence, so low stakes.

As with the outright, the value in the winner market rests entirely on how strong you think the Ukraine vote will be on both sides of the scoreboard.

The number of casual Eurovision voters is lower in the semi finals compared to the final, so while they should still command a good televote score I think they may not be significantly ahead of the strong televote songs like Norway, and to a lesser extent Greece.

Greece and Netherlands both should do well on the jury vote as well sung, 'authentic' entries, and consistent scoring on both sides of the coin suggests some value in Greece to win the semi at 4.50, and Netherlands top 3 @ 6/4. (Reminder that and bets on these markets sees your money tied up until after Saturday night when the semi final placings are revealed). Norway are likely to be nobbled by the juries.

10 to Qualify:

The certainties:
Ukraine
Greece
Norway
Netherlands
Portugal

The likelies:
Armenia
Albania

Just in:
Moldova
Latvia
Lithuania

Just out:
Austria
Iceland
Switzerland
Croatia

Also Ran:
Slovenia
Bulgaria
Denmark

Iceland (7/4) and Lithuania (2/1) both odds against but i can see the juries pushing one of these over the line, so worth a small play. Croatia's price looks too big, although I think they will just miss out.
 
Also, keep an eye on the Twitter pages on TellyStats during the show for in play betting opportunities.
 
Iceland and Lithuania both progressing at nice odds - Lithuania looked good on the Twitter stats too.

Not entirely sure how Switzerland snuck in there - almost zero impact on social media so juries must have given that a leg up as well.
 
Thanks for the write up guys, gonna place some bets today. I cant be bothered backing Ukraine at odds on. Like you say Beanie not 100% the juries will oblige. If you win you have to host the year after right? I cant see Ukraine wanting to host it next year. Looking for bets to oppose them. Prob will do my brains like every other year lmao.
 
Hey Jez - They don't have to host - if a country cant or elects not to the EBU can select a different one. The assumption is that if Ukraine wins then a country like the UK would probably step in.

There is a suggestion that the EBU doesnt really want Ukraine to win (as they often like to frame the contest as 'non-political' and a Ukraine win would sit against that narrative somewhat.) So its possible they give Ukraine a slightly less favourable running order (they already drew 1st half - running order decided tonight and contenders in 1st half usually get placed 10-12 in running order).

However, running order may not matter - good chance that Ukraine would win the public vote from any position, and running order is less important for juries.
 
Hey Jez - They don't have to host - if a country cant or elects not to the EBU can select a different one. The assumption is that if Ukraine wins then a country like the UK would probably step in.

There is a suggestion that the EBU doesnt really want Ukraine to win (as they often like to frame the contest as 'non-political' and a Ukraine win would sit against that narrative somewhat.) So its possible they give Ukraine a slightly less favourable running order (they already drew 1st half - running order decided tonight and contenders in 1st half usually get placed 10-12 in running order).

However, running order may not matter - good chance that Ukraine would win the public vote from any position, and running order is less important for juries.

Great post Beanie thanks. I wouldn't like to host the fecking thing after not even winning it! Extremely good point about them not wanting to appear political. Unfortunately that seems to have not mattered a jot in the past.
 
Before i finalise my bets and 10 to progress, some useful links for tonight:

Jury review (note these star ratings are jury ratings, by someone who is very solid at reading the jury scoring):


https://www.escdaily.com/live-jury-...urovision-2022-vocal-assessment-of-all-songs/

Summary in running order (using rehearsal clips):


TellyStats (watch the Twitter 'sentiment' rankings as the show progresses for an idea of the public vote - usually lots of in play value)

https://tellystats.com/Eurovision2022/Stats/TwitterLive
 
A generally low quality semi, and low stakes for me to keep powder dry for the final. In terms of a winner I cant see Sweden being trumped, but at 2/5 theres nothing to get excited about. 5/1+ on Estonia nabbing a top 3 appeals a little - good looking guy with guitar singing a western chart friendly song is a good recipe for solid scores on both sides of the scoreboard.

For qualification, ive already had some Azerbaijan at 4/6 based on the extremely strong vocal, and anything above 1.50 looks good enough. Im sure they will have bought the Maltese/SM juries as well .

Belgium around 1.6-1.7 ill probably have too - theres red flags against a lot of songs in this semi so I can see all the well sung, innoffensive songs making it.

For my 10th spot ill go with Malta purely because they are usually, ahem, a bit dodgy, and theres a few similarly dodgy countries in this semi. In a low scoring semi a few brown envelopes are probably enough.

The certainties
Sweden
Poland
Australia
Estonia

The likelies
Czech Republic
Finland
Serbia

Borderline in
Azerbaijan
Belgium
Malta

Borderline out
San Marino
Cyprus
Romania
Georgia

Unlikelies
Israel
Ireland

Beyond redemption
Montenegro
North Macedonia
 
Azerbaijan and Belgium both land the qualification.

Romania the only one I didnt have - be interesting to see how close it was, and what just missed out.

Running order now published, and jury final tonight.
 
Quick final rundown, a grouped prediction of where they finish, and some bets that caught my eye.

21st-25th

Iceland
Germany
Romania
France
Finland

Bets - Germany are current favourites to finish last and there’s a good chance they do, but at the prices i’m much more interested in the 40/1 on France or 18/1 on Iceland (unibet offered me 53 pence at 40/1 so took a bit more at 33/1 at Boyles). The French song is quite jarring and I have them struggling with both jurors and the televote.

16th-20th

Switzerland
Czech Republic
Belgium
Norway
Azerbaijan

Bets - Purely speculative, but Twitter impact for Norway was extremely limited during the semi final and I dont detect any significant sign of it catching the public’s imagination. Juries will show it little love. Prices looks like it will settle around 5/4 for them to miss the top 10, and 9/1 for them to miss the top 15 which looks appealing.

11th-15th

Armenia
Serbia
Lithuania
Moldova
Portugal

Bets - Serbia building a head of steam for a top 10 but I think it may be just online hype driven by a fervent Serbian fanbase. It may get a top 10 televote with much Balkan help, but I can see a low jury scoring pushing it out of the top 10. 2/1 ish to miss the top 10 worth a small play for me. Moldova should go fairly big on the televote too but again, im expecting it to be hobbled by its jury score.

Skybet had a market for Armenia to beat Finland earlier at evens - hoping it pops back up.

Portugal at 3/1 for top 10 seems more than fair too. Social media/spotify been stronger than i would have expected for a song of that type.

6th to 10th

Netherlands
Estonia
Australia
Poland
Greece

Bets - All of these look reasonable value to me for a top 10, but perhaps the best is Australia @ 3.25. It will do well with juries and showed reasonably well on social media during the semi final.. There may be some anglo-leaning bias in that but the plum draw and ‘social acceptance’ message also give a boost. Poland at 1.75 decent odds too. Estonia reportedly a bit shaky for the juries tonight.

Netherlands to beat Norway @ 5/6 with Skybet

5th - Spain - Expecting a top 5 televote score but jury scoring likely to be more patchy.due to the suggestive lyrics and sexual nature of the staging.

4th - UK - Best result in donkeys years in store for the UK imo. I think it will be atleast top 2 with the juries, and might even lead going into the public vote - juries always reward good vocals, even more so on difficult songs. However, I have this lower top 10 on the televote so the question is if the jury score is enough to see it hold onto the top 4.

3rd - Italy - Juries are a sucker for the Italian entries and this one oozes class again. The running order is poor but I have this top 3 with the juries and top 10 on the televote.

2nd - Ukraine

Winners - Sweden

In truth, I think Ukraine is the most likely winner as there’s a good chance they annihilate the public vote, to cover for a lower top 10 jury rank. There’s now large Ukrainian communities throughout Europe, and viewers across the continent will throw a vote their way along with one for their favourites, all adding up to what might be an insurmountable public vote score.

However, at 2/5 I cant see much value, and think there is good chance Sweden might pip it at the post. In what is a poor year, since the Swedish final I’ve thought that the default, polished pop package may have enough, and other than the Ukraine storyline I havent seen any other songs progress beyond it. Its a jury bait song and should be a safe top 3 with them, and its showing well on social media metrics and itunes/spotify, so a top 3 in the televote is realistic too from a great running order position.

Top 4 should be a lock, so good each way terms make this the one for me @8/1 ew or 12/1 win only.

So in summary, bets I think are worth a look:

Sweden ew @ 8/1
Australia top 10 @ 3.25
Poland Top 10 @ 1.75
Netherlands to beat Norway @ 5/6
Norway not to finish top 10 @ 5/4
Portugal top 10 @ 4.00
Norway not to finish top 15 @ 10/1
Serbia not to finish top 10 @ 2/1 (although Im hoping for better odds in running)
France to finish last @ 40/1
Iceland to finish last @ 18/1
 
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I lumped on UK in running @ 12.0 , was a good performance. Also took Moldova and Portugal top 10 @ 2.75 and Iceland top 10 @ 17.0.

I will no doubt get the rug pulled out completely from under me but as always I am loving it. Komp would have been all over this, this night of the year always makes me think of him. Rest In Peace.
 
I think the juries will prob kill songs like Moldova and Estonia (but UK good chance of being up there during the jury points.)

Spain doing well on the socials during the show, they may be giving Ukraine a run for their money on the televote.

And absolutely right Jez - the main reason I'm into this stupid contest is Mick and Komp. Used to spend months chatting with them about all the songs - finding obscure audio clips from a Lithuanian pub to find out whether their entrant they could sing. I think about them both every Eurovision night too.
 
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