S
Sports_Fanatic
Guest
Got a little more time on my hands post Christmas, so I was wondering how a season would pan out betting wise if you layed the favourite for all tournaments.
So this is a test at low stakes which I hope to maintain for the season. Plan is as follows:
1) PGA tour events only
2) Lay the favourite before the tournament starts, after round 1 or 2 judge if they are in contention. For many, I think they'll fall away quick due to the strength in depth. For those that are at the head of the field, my perception is the odds won't shorten drastically over the first 2 rounds so I can come out of the bet by backing them at this stage if necessary, thereby minimising any loss.
I think the key issue may be having the bank to make this work if you were trying for bigger stakes, but still interested to see. I'll hopefully try and update this thread before every tournament.
So example, the bet for the first event, the Hyundai tournament of champions, will be lay Steve Stricker at 9.8. Potential liability 17.6pts, potential profit (after commission) 1.9pts.
This will be a slight risk for the first event being a limited field, but probably mitigated by being first of the tournament so no current form for the bookies to base the odds on. Future weeks I'd expect the favourite to be shorter odds e.g. if Mclroy or Woods are playing.
So this is a test at low stakes which I hope to maintain for the season. Plan is as follows:
1) PGA tour events only
2) Lay the favourite before the tournament starts, after round 1 or 2 judge if they are in contention. For many, I think they'll fall away quick due to the strength in depth. For those that are at the head of the field, my perception is the odds won't shorten drastically over the first 2 rounds so I can come out of the bet by backing them at this stage if necessary, thereby minimising any loss.
I think the key issue may be having the bank to make this work if you were trying for bigger stakes, but still interested to see. I'll hopefully try and update this thread before every tournament.
So example, the bet for the first event, the Hyundai tournament of champions, will be lay Steve Stricker at 9.8. Potential liability 17.6pts, potential profit (after commission) 1.9pts.
This will be a slight risk for the first event being a limited field, but probably mitigated by being first of the tournament so no current form for the bookies to base the odds on. Future weeks I'd expect the favourite to be shorter odds e.g. if Mclroy or Woods are playing.
