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Horse racing bets Saturday 24th March (inc' Lincoln Hcap discussion)

F

fcbasher

Guest
I once picked the winner of the Lincoln back in 1991,the winner that day was Amenable ridden by Alex Greaves claiming 3lb and trained by David Barron.The horses profile was four straight wins on the all weather , sounded good , put that with a handicap weight of 8-01!!! and a jockey claiming another 3lb,popped its head in front about a furlong out and won by a length and a half.

Kynren 33/1
Again trained by David Barron,profile 3111,winner at Redcar,Newmarket and Carlisle on both soft and good/firm,given a h'cap weight of 8-10,is my shout for this cavalry charge.
 
Good luck mate.

Don't know much about this race but I always remember it because when I first started work in the early 80's my boss used to do the times cryptic crossword and was stuck on one question, can't remember what the clue was but I worked it out to be 'The Lincoln Handicap'.

I couldn't have got off to a better start on my first day working there lol, it's always stuck in my head ever since.
 
lol,the race is basically a cavalry charge of about 20 odd h'cap runners over a mile.Winners come from a wide range a prices,so if you're shrewd enough to find one ahead of the handicapper you'll be well rewarded.
 
I'd guess that the clue was which is the first classic race of the season slick. It's a race that I'm familiar with, at least in terms of its place in the calendar as it's always ran around my birthday. As such, I used to often go on race trips with with my old man starting I was just old enough to officially drink.

I have no idea how well I've ever done in the race betting-wise but I have to say I do like your selection Basher. I love a progressive, lightly raced horse in a cavalry charge like this and if you back enough of them each way at good prices (especially with extra place offers on the day) you will make a profit in the long term.

There are just the 70 odd of them in the race so far :lol so it would be pretty pointless placing a bet just yet (no NRNB yet) and even more pointless going through the form for every runner but I have looked at your chap and I have another couple that I like the look of

Zabeel Prince. I'm inclined to ignore a horses bad run when it gets to October time onwards, even it it has only had four or five runs during the season. This is a lightly run horse that has plenty of scope for improvement. It's running style (it likes to be at the head of affairs -often pulling itself their despite the jockey) lends itself to a decent option to be backed each with a view to putting in a lay bet at shorter prices for the win. Currently 16/1 with 4 places. I may even have a small ew bet without the NRNB safety net.

The other one I like the look of is Ballard Down, a horse I entered into my tracker last May and won at 16/1 later in the year. I would imagine the going is likely to be soft on Saturday and even if there's some heavy in there that will still suit this beast
 
Here’s an interesting experiment for you, five random numbers, 5, 7, 11, 13 and 25.

Without knowing the final line ups for Saturday’s race or obviously the other big sprint handicaps this season, what do u think the chances woild be if making a profit if you backed those five horse numbers at 2pts for win if under 10/1 and 1pt ew if 10/1 and over?

Rediculous idea but I think you may be surprised. I’d like to know what odds anyone might give of being in overall profit at some stage during the season. If u think that 6 places are regularly offered on these races i reckon theres a good chance that you’d find yourself in the black if u shopped around for prices,
 
Nah it was a cryptic clue something about an American President, I didn't even know what the Lincoln handicap was at time but I worked out the clue and said Lincoln Handicap with an unknowing look and my new boss said Bingo, that's it like it was a Eureka moment, It really impressed him lol, fcuking impressed me too tell the truth as the only crossword I ever did were the coffee break in the Mirrior.
 
Ill throw in number 15 as a reserve in case of a non runner and start the trial from saturday. any handicap sprint with 20 runners or more.

comments welcome
 
Bloody hell , can you two do me a favour, crosswords , impressing your boss, and a play it by numbers strategy, We want people's views on the Lincoln!!!! So will you two kindly sod off to the games thread.I want apologize to everyone wanting to talk horse racing
 
Fuck them, this is far more interesting than discussing 75 horses, 50 of which won’t even be running.

:lol
 
That's a valid point Onedunme, I didn't even realize there was still that many left mate ☺️
 
ONEDUNME said:
Here’s an interesting experiment for you, five random numbers, 5, 7, 11, 13 and 25.

Without knowing the final line ups for Saturday’s race or obviously the other big sprint handicaps this season, what do u think the chances woild be if making a profit if you backed those five horse numbers at 2pts for win if under 10/1 and 1pt ew if 10/1 and over?

Rediculous idea but I think you may be surprised. I’d like to know what odds anyone might give of being in overall profit at some stage during the season. If u think that 6 places are regularly offered on these races i reckon theres a good chance that you’d find yourself in the black if u shopped around for prices,
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You're right, it is a ridiculous idea. Only an idiot would do that.

Right, I'm off to apply my '3rd letter R' system the the Grand National :thumb
 
Seriously this is getting out of hand, there are lots of expert punters like myself that want to air their views and tips on this race,and all were getting is mockery.I won't bother asking a mod to step in , it would be like throwing a wet sponge on a blazing fire :rant
 
fcbasher said:
Seriously this is getting out of hand, there are lots of expert punters like myself that want to air their views and tips on this race,and all were getting is mockery.I won't bother asking a mod to step in , it would be like throwing a wet sponge on a blazing fire :rant
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That sounds like a good game. How big a fire are you thinking of and how many attempts would you need. Maybe we could make it a team competition. Sounds like a cracking way to spend a Saturday afternoon.
 
ONEDUNME said:
That sounds like a good game. How big a fire are you thinking of and how many attempts would you need. Maybe we could make it a team competition. Sounds like a cracking way to spend a Saturday afternoon.
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Possibly mate,lets ask the guys.What do you think guys? Any questions fire away.
 
Going - soft (Thursday)

Only Ballard Down left from our original picks,I took 16/1 1/4 odds with bet365

Paddypower go five places,but are 14s with 1/5 odds a place.
 
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I've just looked at the first race on the card, the 150, the Cammidge Trophy. I've gone through each horse without looking at the prices because I know that that sways my opinion, as much as I try not to. There are only 11 runners and to say I've narrowed it down to three doesn't sound very impressive but I'll be backing two of them and I'll be keeping a track of how I fair over the races that I study and then decide whether the time spent doing it (it isn't a quick exercise) is worthwhile or whether I'm wasting my time.

Mr first choice is number 8 Perfect Pasture. Ran will at this course and this distance in November (and in a class one, as tomorrow's race) and won on its two runs prior to that. Runs tomorrow on the same rating as then and I like its chances a lot.
10pt win 9/2

Second choice is number 3 Ice Age. 5yo, looks progressive. I'm happy to dismiss its last run on the all weather and the run before that which was on heavy ground. Scored a hat trick on turf on good-soft and yielding to soft last year (admittedly class 2 best) but is open to improvement and well worth an each way bet at 12/1
5pt ew 12/1 Coral, 3 places 1/5 odds.

Third choice (and reserve in case one of the others is a non runner) Number 8 Teruntum Star 15/2. Not big enough for an each way bet so I would be looking to back this as an insurance bet with money back if it finishes in the first three. I'd expect around 9/2 (for ten points, if, as I say, one of the other two doesn't run.

Plus a couple of quid on the reverse forecasts for all three.
 
ONEDUNME said:
There are just the 70 odd of them in the race so far :lol so it would be pretty pointless placing a bet just yet (no NRNB yet) and even more pointless going through the form for every runner but I have looked at your chap and I have another couple that I like the look of

Zabeel Prince. I'm inclined to ignore a horses bad run when it gets to October time onwards, even it it has only had four or five runs during the season. This is a lightly run horse that has plenty of scope for improvement. It's running style (it likes to be at the head of affairs -often pulling itself their despite the jockey) lends itself to a decent option to be backed each with a view to putting in a lay bet at shorter prices for the win. Currently 16/1 with 4 places. I may even have a small ew bet without the NRNB safety net.

The other one I like the look of is Ballard Down, a horse I entered into my tracker last May and won at 16/1 later in the year. I would imagine the going is likely to be soft on Saturday and even if there's some heavy in there that will still suit this beast
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Zabeel Prince isn't in the race and will run in the mile race instead (where I will back it).Ballard Down is currently 14/1 but I'll risk getting a lower price tomorrow with maybe another place on offer. 5pt ew.

The draw has taken me towards Lord Glitters. Goes on any ground and this track will suit it. The trainer combination absolutely need to be considered in EVERY big sprint race throughout the whole season but, as I said, the draw is perfect for this animal tomorrow. It's a hold up horse and will need pace for it to latch onto if it's going to win. The fact that it's drawn 9 will mean that the jockey will be able to find that pace wherever it comes from on the track and will be able to position his horse to follow it.
5pt win 13/2

3rd choice would be Chelsea Lad. Oisin Murphy rides it for the first time. Has been raced at further than this on its last races. Will race up with the pace and if the pace is on his side it could well reward at 16/1. Price is drifting but it will go on any ground so that's not going to be a worry whichever way the weather goes overnight.

Backing all three (should be extra places on offer tomorrow) and a couple of quid on all three reverse forecast.
 
Zabeel Prince is the joint fav for the Unibet Doncaster Mile. 2/1 Available, I'll have 15 points on it
 
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