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Horse racing bets Tuesday 14th March

145 Southwell. If two races had gone differently, I'm convinced that this animal would be going off tomorrow at 4/6 instead of the price that it currently is which is 11/8. Gnaad ran well last month and was unlucky to be beaten by a nose by a then 58 rated "Hot Stuff". Hot stuff was then beaten into 3rd by a head by a 65 rated horse on its next outing but that doesn't tell the whole story as it got loose before the race and expended a lot of energy. I know these things aren't scientific calculations but Hot Stuff is a good 6lb better than its official rating in my view. Likewise, Gnaad reared badly at the start in ITS next run and was left at the back, then ran on, then met traffic problems, then ran on to be 3rd. I've looked at the favorite's only run and it's hardly terrifying. 11/8 is a big bet for me to get the Cheltenham week off to what will no doubt be a bad start to a bad week financially:lol

Roxyfet 435 Sedgefield. Win bet at 5/1 and two places at 2.4 on betfair

Good luck to all at the start of a busy week for many of us
 
I should clarify that Hot Stuff'ss last race was a handicap and therefore it would be expected to finish alongside the horse rated 65 given the weights but my point is that it would have been likely to have finished well ahead of it had it not been for the circumstances. The distances between the first, second and fourth indicate that it looked to be a decent guide to the relative handicap marks.
 
2.25 Southwell - IMJIN RIVER - Second in this last year but only one decent effort recently. Needs a return to form, but is competitively priced at 16's to do so.

3.45 Southwell - STUN GUN - Has four fibresand wins to his name and real claims if at best. Well below form last three starts though so comes with risks attached at 10's.

4.25 Southwell - SPICE MILL - Goes on the surface and claims on best form. Does have stamina to prove, but no unduly worried on that score.

5.00 Southwell - CRAKEHALL LAD - First showing in a while last time out and based on that the 12's does look big.
 
10.25 Vaal - GREY GLORY and CLAREMORRIS - GG is lightly raced, makes his stable debut, has the first time blinkers and has a top jockey up. Soild EW bet in this 8 runner event at 7's. C'M is the stable 2nd string and has disappointed last two starts. Did show plenty on first 3 starts though and has been a single figure price each time. Bit different today at the early 20's and would expect her to open at nearer 14's on course.
 
Shocker from Grey Glory, but Claremorris was 3rd at 20's.

11.00 Vaal - Taking a chance with 3 in this maiden -

THE HUNTING GAME ( Good improvement latest and has placed twice over this distance. Form chance at 7's )
STREET AFFAIR ( Low level maiden, but does have speed. Very best form gives him a squeak at 66's )
SURFERS PARADISE ( Unraced stablemate of THG and is related to winners. Top young jockey booked and a big debut run would not surprise at 9's )
 
11.35 Vaal - SPUTNIK PLAIN and ORSON - SP has has raced around the turn and was much improved last 2 starts. Decent chance at 8's with top jockey engaged. Orson did not improve for his 2nd run, but too early to give up hope as is nicely bred and represents a top trainer. Speculative EW at 20's

12.10 Vaal - KINGS CREEK - Bit better last time and does have a chance at the weights. Drop back in trip should suit and fair EW chance at 12's.

12.45 Vaal - FRAPPACHINO - All 4 career wins this trip and whilst not too consistent lately, does appeal at 28's

2.40 Vaal - VIKING CREEK and ANTONIUS CHARM - Pair of lively " rags " at 25's and 40's respectively.

3.10 Vaal - CATCH A THIEF - Fair form, is back off a nice short break and will be coming late at 7's

6.45 Wolverhampton - SURROUND SOUND - Sneaking one in from tonights meeting and this one did run well last time. Slight step up in trip looks fine and has won at the track. Should be thereabouts at 8's.
 
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