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Latest Eurovision Odds

slick

Administrator
Joined
Jul 26, 2011
Messages
15,802
Points
113
Outright - Eurovision Song Contest 2012
22 May 20:00

5.50 Sweden
7.00 Russia
9.00 Serbia
10.00 Denmark
11.00 Ireland
11.00 Norway
15.00 United Kingdom
17.00 Germany
21.00 Greece
21.00 Cyprus
21.00 Ukraine
21.00 Turkey
26.00 Iceland
26.00 Romania
26.00 Azerbaijan
26.00 Italy
34.00 Estonia
34.00 Slovenia
41.00 Hungary
41.00 Spain
51.00 Austria
51.00 Israel
51.00 Moldova
51.00 Armenia
51.00 Belarus
51.00 Lithuania
51.00 France
67.00 Belgium
67.00 Finland
67.00 Switzerland
67.00 Macedonia
67.00 Bosnia & Herzegovina
81.00 Croatia
81.00 Slovakia
101.00 Latvia
101.00 Montenegro
101.00 San Marino
101.00 Bulgaria
101 Albania
101.00 Malta
101.00 Holland
101.00 Portugal
101.00 Georgia

Odds William Hill
 
I have no idea which of these odds is off, but a decent freeroll or sure win.

'Nul points?'
Yes: 11.0 @ SportingBet
No: 1,25 @ Bwin

~12% sure win right there, or a freeroll for which ever you prefer :p
 
I'd suggest it's the 1.25 thats off. Any song that qualifies from the semis will score points in the final. That leaves the big 5 + Azerbaijan. Whether it be through friends guaranteeing atleast some return(such as Ireland/Malta to the UK, Austria to Germany etc) or the random jury spread, every song will get atleast something. Only in the 100% televote days was a 0 a realistic prospect I think. I'd have the price around 1.10 or less.
 
yeah, my thoughts exactly. 1.25 seems high.. There hasnt been 0 points in a while..
 
hehe, I tried to log-in into my VC account, and it was closed. Found this e-mail from last summer after eurovision

"We are contacting you today to advise that a business decision has been taken by our Senior Traders and I must inform you that betting Account Number [XXXXXXX] has now been closed and no further business may be executed on your behalf. "

No reason given why, but I did crush VC on eurovision betting, so I guess they didnt like that. Strange though. This has never happened to me before. Hope VC doesnt give out awesome odds, as it seems this decision wont be overturned :( Also, had some money in there. Sent them e-mail to get it back. Frustrating!
 
hehe, I tried to log-in into my VC account, and it was closed. Found this e-mail from last summer after eurovision

"We are contacting you today to advise that a business decision has been taken by our Senior Traders and I must inform you that betting Account Number [XXXXXXX] has now been closed and no further business may be executed on your behalf. "

No reason given why, but I did crush VC on eurovision betting, so I guess they didnt like that. Strange though. This has never happened to me before. Hope VC doesnt give out awesome odds, as it seems this decision wont be overturned :( Also, had some money in there. Sent them e-mail to get it back. Frustrating!

I've also been booted by VC. And Eurobet, and Bet365, and Bet24 (well, the last two have limited me to single dollar bets). It sucks soooo bad.
 
Anyone know if Bluesquare is a "copy" of some other site, or if it's standalone?

With "copy", I mean like Eurobet and Coral. Or Sportingbet and what'stheirname... 1X2bet?
 
a few weeks ago PaddyPower gave 8.0 for Irelant NOT to qualify, which I thought is great value. It dropped to 6.0. But no Bwin is giving 7,5 for them not to qualify. I like those odds.. I mean, I assume one can always sell it away with a small profit if you get scared. @ betfair the odds seem to be around 1.25. Bwin seems to think that out of the countries they have listed Ireland is the most certain to qualify. Even more so than Greece for example. That is just off. 1.05 for them to qualify is ridiculous 8)

Anyone else who likes the 7,5 not to qualify? Am I off with my estimations here? Someone?
 
a few weeks ago PaddyPower gave 8.0 for Irelant NOT to qualify, which I thought is great value. It dropped to 6.0. But no Bwin is giving 7,5 for them not to qualify. I like those odds.. I mean, I assume one can always sell it away with a small profit if you get scared. @ betfair the odds seem to be around 1.25. Bwin seems to think that out of the countries they have listed Ireland is the most certain to qualify. Even more so than Greece for example. That is just off. 1.05 for them to qualify is ridiculous 8)

Anyone else who likes the 7,5 not to qualify? Am I off with my estimations here? Someone?

They've lowered it to 5.00 now, which seems more in line. 7.50 was probably some value, yeah.
 
Bwin has lots of new bets, some head to heads and "will both qualify" bets. I think there is value in a few of them, and I'm betting small on all of these. Not big, since I dont like going big before rehearsals, but if I think there is value I need to take it, right? :p

Iceland vs. Ireland: Iceland 1.75
Turkey vs. Greece: Greece 1.72
Will both Bosnia and Slovenia qualify for the final: Yes 1.8 (I know some people think Slovenia will not qualify, and Croatia will take its place. I'm not one of these people though. Bosnia is like 85% I think, and in my mind Slovenia is quite certain and therefore I like this bet.)
How many points will the winning song receive? 260 or less: 2.15
(Need to do some more thinking and calculations, but I think this is a good bet. Last year Azerbaijan got 221. There is a big difference there. And this year 42 countries, last year 43. Not a big difference but something. And this year people seem to think the quality of songs is very high, which would mean the points are divided more evenly. I'm one of these people, I think this is better than average year when it comes to the quality of the songs. Lena, which somewhat crushed got 246 points with 39 countries. that is close to 260 if there would have been 42 countries like this year. I know there is Rybak who walked away with it and broke all records, but this year it's not gonna be like that. Loreen does not have the same kind of following as Rybak had. I feel like this year we will have a rather close fight, and I'm putting a small bet on this as well. I think the only country that has a chance to make it over 260 is sweden, but since many nordic countries have decent songs I dont see it happening.)
 
Thought these two markets over at Paddy Power were kind of interesting:

Who will Ireland award maximum points to?

Lithuania 15/8
Sweden 10/3
United Kingdom 9/2
Russia 6/1
Denmark 7/1
Estonia 10/1
Romania 20/1
Spain 20/1
Italy 22/1
Germany 66/1
Azerbaijan 66/1
France 80/1

Who will UK award maximum points to?

Ireland 1/2
Sweden 9/4
Russia 9/1
Greece 11/1
Romania 12/1
Turkey 12/1
Italy 20/1
Denmark 33/1
Spain 33/1
Azerbaijan 50/1
Germany 50/1
France 80/1

The UK gave Jedward 12 points last year so yeah, odds-on is almost justified unless one of the other performers pick up support and every country weirdly singles out that one performer which sometimes happens.

Why is Lithuania favourite to get Ireland's top marks though!? Coochy-coochy-betting-coup!?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurovision_Song_Contest_2011
 
UK's top 3: Sweden, Ireland & Spain.
Ireland's top 3: Sweden, Germany & Estonia

...and Sweden run away with it.
 
UK's top 3: Sweden, Ireland & Spain.
Ireland's top 3: Sweden, Germany & Estonia

...and Sweden run away with it.
They certainly did,receiving a total of 372 points including 18 sets of douze points,15 points short of Alexander Rybak's record for "Fairytale" in 2009.
 
It seems to happen every other year that the favourite does indeed romp away with it but sometimes there is a genuine contest.

Next year might be more competitive.
 
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