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Npower League Two betting 17th Sep

slick

slick

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Saturday 17th September 2011
13:00 Port Vale 11/8 Draw 12/5 Shrewsbury 7/4
15:00 Acc. Stanley 5/4 Draw 12/5 Crewe 15/8
15:00 AFC Wimbledon 11/10 Draw 12/5 Cheltenham 9/4
15:00 Barnet 13/8 Draw 12/5 Oxford 6/4
15:00 Bristol Rov 11/10 Draw 12/5 Aldershot Town 9/4
15:00 Burton Albion 17/10 Draw 12/5 Swindon 7/5
15:00 Crawley Town 8/13 Draw 11/4 Bradford 4/1
15:00 Dagenham 6/4 Draw 23/10 Morecambe 13/8
15:00 Hereford 15/8 Draw 12/5 Gillingham 5/4
15:00 Macclesfield 8/5 Draw 12/5 Northampton 6/4
15:00 Torquay 13/10 Draw 23/10 Rotherham 2/1

Odds Skybet
 
This looks to me an even trickier set of fixtures than Tuesday! The games at Bristol, Hereford and Macclesfield look 'underish' to me and there are a few away sides who could do well, I can't see anywhere obvious where I disagree with the bookies. I'll look forward to seeing where Pete thinks the value lies.
 
Bristol Rovers v Aldershot: I've had my nibble (3 units) on under 2.5 at 10/11 with Hills. I'd prefer to wait for injury news, but the price is shortening quickly.

All of Aldershot's league games except our opener have been under, and that one needed an own goal. At the back we're solid enough. Going forward we're creating without being good enough to put the ball away. Someone is going to get a tonking soon, but I don't think it'll be against a side as good as Bristol Rovers.

I know less about Rovers, but the stats show they've struggled to score at home - three in four games. Their message board seems to think they've got their defence sorted, though. If that's the case I can't see us scoring many, but I can also see us being solid enough to stop Bristol scoring many as well, and I think unders is more likely than overs - and I know it'll be a ten goal thriller now!
 
Bookies have pushed league leaders Morecambe out to over 2/1 (11/5 @ Skybet) at Dagenham, who have picked up only one point from their last 4 games, yet 365 and Skybet have them as 5/4 to win the game :thinking
 
Punter said:
Bookies have pushed league leaders Morecambe out to over 2/1 (11/5 @ Skybet) at Dagenham, who have picked up only one point from their last 4 games, yet 365 and Skybet have them as 5/4 to win the game :thinking
Click to expand...

Strange...on paper I'd say that makes Morecambe a % or two too generous. Nothing on either club's message board, BBC or TeamTalk to suggest why Dagenham should suddenly become such heavy favourites. I agree: :thinking
 
My league 2 raitngs:

Accrington v Crewe
Back Crewe at prices over 3.15, best price 3.6

Burton v Swindon
Swindon are a value back at prices over 2.25, best price 2.6

Crawley v Bradford
Lay Crawley at prices under 1.78, current price 1.74

Torquay v Rotherham
Torquat are a value back a tprices over 2.38, best price 2.54
 
Morecambe continue to lengthen for no obvious reason, and I've taken them at 23/10. Morecambe and Dagenham have both started well, but it's the northernrs who have maintaned their good start, while Dagenham have dipped of late. Morecambe are waiting on the fitness of a couple of first teamers (Jevons; 18 goals last season) and McDonald (highly experienced midfielder). Jevons is less of a miss than he'd have been last season, with Danny Carlton outscoring him so far this year. Even in neither Jevons of McDonald make it, I'd still make the price generous - I have Morecambe at around 2/1; shorter with these two in the team.
 
I've taken Southend -0.75 v Plymouth (29/40, Bet365). Plymouth are the division's whipping boys, with only one point and a goal difference of -14 already. Reading the message board and player interviews, I get the feeling they're just happy to have a club at the moment.

Southend have found goals difficult to come by - only five sides have scored fewer. That's largely due to injuries and Southend may have a full compliment of attackers to choose from for the first time this season.
 
I like the look of Cheltenham/draw at Wimbledon at 4/6 or better - but I'm not with one of the few bookies offering this price so I'll have to leave it after Cheltenham came in overnight. Cheltenham have started solidly, while Wimbledon started spectacularly (in terms of playing style) but have fallen away, particularly with a 0-3 hope loss in midweek for which Seb Brown in goal was apparently blamed - with obvious possible confidence implications.

I've seen both sides at Aldershot in recent weeks. Cheltenham were solid but unspectacular; Wimbledon were awful and very lucky to come away with a draw - mainly thanks to our poor finishing :cry
 
Macclesfield v Northampton: I've taken under 2.5 at 5/6 with SkyBet.

Macckesfield are generally a solid rather than free-flowing side; of their nine goals eight came in two games - a home crushing by Wimbledon, and a win at Hereford where Bulls' keeper had a nightmare. While they are a bit porus away, Macc tend to be a bit tighter at home, where only two goals have been conceded. Macc also lost their atar midfielder (whose name escapes me) at the end of August.

Northampton have disappointed so far this season - I nearly had a small interest in them for promotion - but with three unbeaten there are signs they're getting into their stride. However, they are in the midst of an injury crisis. Akinfewa has a good record this season, but loanee Marlon Jackson (according to TeamTalk) will start up front alongside him. I know this means he'll get a hat trick, but one goal in 48 senior matches and a loan spell at Aldershot where he didn't set the world alight doesn't inspire me to think this'll be a high scoring game.
 
Bristol R under 2.5 :)
Macclesfield under 2.5 :banghead (I didn't see the goalfest coming)
Morecambe :)
Southend :)

A good afternoon overall and a special :dance for the mightly Aldershot.
 
Good shout on Morcambe guys , very Wise!!! gedditt??:dance
 
That's terrible Keem' :duh :)

Well done TC, another winning weekend :)
 
Good spot by Punter on Morecambe's drift. :beer

On current form the 9/4 with Hills on Hereford to go down looks worth taking and I've had a nibble - again as Punter predicted pre-season :thumb
 
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