ODM's Alternative Aintree Thread

[traeth]

odm comes up trumps with this post in the Welsh footie thread

Gullinbursti in the last tomorrow, currently 9/2 fav and Cloudy Lane ew at 8/1 in the 340.

My big tip would be that the horses that ran at Cheltenham will be over-backed (and therefore undervalue) because

a/ The people who backed them with either be chasing losses on them (if they lost) or backing them "with the bookies money" (if they won)

b/ People who have never heard of them before Cheltenham with now have them on their radar.

I'd advise anyone to look at the horses that haven't run at Cheltenham as they are likely to have been laid out especially for this meeting whereas the Cheltenham horses have (mostly) been trained to peak four weeks or so ago. Don't let double figure prices put you off.

The likely exceptions tomorrow are the 2oclock race (Big Bucks at long odds on) and the 305 where all the main contenders ran at Cheltenham. and I also fancy Pearl Swan to defy my own logic in the 230 tomorrow. 5/1 available with paddy power. each way bet at 1/4 odds looks good to me.

I've done an e.w. lucky fifteen
Pearl Swan...n.r.
Burton Port ...2nd
Cloudy Lane...1st
Gullinbursti ...nr

Thanks a lot ODM , a great way to get more reading that boring welsh football thread

 

[ONEDUNME]

Feel free to post a link from my thread Traeth

 

[traeth]

what about tomorrow mate?

i see that Gullinbursti is in the 4:15 tomorrow

 

[ONEDUNME]

what about tomorrow mate?

Well, given what I said about considering non-Festival horses (and the fact that Paul Nichols is in much better form than he was four weeks ago), I'll be backing Siviniaco Conti to beat Champion Court in the 230 race. Will probably go off second fav. Currently 15/8 with Betfred and Ladbrokes.

For the same reasons, Poqulin is worth an ew bet in the 305 (four bookies showing 8/1 on oddschecker - likely to be shorter tomorrow)

414 race,Gullinbursti does look a good ew bet (generally 12/1, some bookies give 1/4 for a place and some 1/5) but my win money will be on Cotton Mill. Absolutely gutted when it threw the jockey off when travelling very strongly at the festival. I'm convinced it would have won. It remains to be seen how much damage that has done to it mentally. I don't thing the price -5/1 with most bookies - justifies an ew bet because I think it will either win or not run it's race, so for the sake of two places I'll forgo the ew and go for the win.

This was one of my biggest bets of the festival so, ironically, I'm doing exactly what I warned of in the first post and chasing my losses on it

 

[traeth]

decided to go with Poqulin e.w. and a win lucky fifteen of:

Siviniaco Conti
Poqulin
Triangular
Cotton Mill

thanks again