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Over 1.5 acca's

Hey buddy I wanna follow but i cant see odds for over 1.5 goals for Holland Jupier League at bet365 :(((
 
I think that the 6 Dutch 2nd div sides could well be worth an acca all to themselves , don't forget that this is a league where over 83% of all games this season have ended Over 1.5 goals.

Funny you say that jtw as I stick a blind bet on the O1.5 accy and the O2.5 accy every Friday night when the bulk of their games are played.

The O1.5 accy lands more often than it should (it won last week).

View attachment 124

And the O2.5 accy will drop in every now and again (I've had winners at 40/1, 35/1, 32/1...).

If anything, it's a nice fun bet for a Friday night. Lots of pings on the live score service!
 
Unlucky this time Wayne :ohwell and thats for helping out Radoslav , it took me a couple of looks to find the odds on 365 .

5/5 for the system tonight , lets hope for the same tomorrow :crossfingers
 
Eredivise -
RODA 3.58 v VVV 4.0 @ 1.12 [3-11] 3-1

Dutch 2nd -
ALMERE 3.50 v MAASTRICHT 3.42 @ 1.17 [4-8] 1-2

VOLENDAM 4.08 v DORDRECHT 3.17 @ 1.15 [5-5] 1-1

HELMOND 3.33 v TOP OSS 3.77 @ 1.14 [8-5] 2-1

TELSTAR 3.08 v GO AHEAD 3.50 @ 1.175 [3-13] 0-2


SATURDAY
--------
Dutch 2nd -
FORTUNA 3.08 v SPARTA 3.42 @ 1.19 [8-11] 1-0
angry.gif


WOLVES 3.46 v BLACKBURN @ 1.22 @ 1.22 [4-5] 0-2

PETERBORO 3.69 v BLACKPOOL 3.92 @ 1.2 [4-6] 3-1

CARLISLE 3.35 v BURY 3.17 @ 1.22 [5-6] 4-1

FRANKFURT 3.00 v 1860MUNICH 3.27 @ 1.22 [7-6] 3-1

HEERENVEEN 3.75 v EXCELSIOR 3.08 @ 1.07 [5-2] 4-2

MALAGA 3.33 v LEVANTE 3.00 @ 1.25 [11-10] 1-0
angry.gif


GALATASARAY 3.29 v G'BIRLIGI 3.29 @ 1.16 [11-7] 2-0


SUNDAY
------
MAN UTD 4.00 v WEST BROM 3.00 @ 1.16 [10-11] 2-0

D DRESDEN 3.42 v INGOLSTAT 3.33 @ 1.25 [6-6] 0-0
eyes.gif


DE GRAAFSCHAP 3.36 v AZ ALKMAAR 3.08 @ 1.14 [4-8] 0-2



Decent strike rate imo but unfortunately damage was done to both bets by FORTUNA and MALAGA .

I've been considering how to try and eliminate these and hopefully next week should see the posting of selections using a new set of criteria , these will be -

1 - How strong the League involved is with regards to Over 1.5 goals , e.g they must have a % of Overs of 75%+ , which at the moment will be BELGIUM , EPL , ENG 1 , ENG 2 , BUNDESLIGA 1 , BUNDESLIGA 2 , EREDIVISE , DUTCH 2nd and DENMARK SAS.
* The FRENCH LIGUE 1 may be included after todays results are known.

2 - The selections will then be sorted by how many games in the past 4 league games they have scored [ as opposed to how many they have scored in those 4] with those not scoring in 0,1 or 2 from the 4 being removed .

3 - The average goals scored either at home or away [whichever applies ] MUST BE OVER 1.0


I'm hopeful these criteria will give us 4-6 selections each week to have a wager on .

I will , however , continue to highlight EVERY game where both teams have scoring average's over 3.00 so as to keep an open mind but the above criteria will run until the end of the season
 
and MONDAYS all come before 2 are even finished !!

MONDAY
------
CAMBUUR 3.92 v AGOVV 3.83 @ 1.105 [10-11] 2-0 with 15 mins to play

ARSENAL 3.08 v NEWCASTLE 3.23 @ 1.18 [16-5] 1-1 after 15 mins

TRABZONSPOR 3.60 v SIVASSPOR 4.00 @ 1.18 [8-6] 2-1 ft
 
Firstly sincere apologies for not posting earlier , due to work , Cheltenham and other silly diversions .

Because of these i failed to post the selections for this weekend which included 5 games played tonight......and of course all 5 finished Over 1.5 goals .
Nevertheless here's the list in full , with tonight's scores added in .

The teams are listed followed by the scoring average's , how may games from the last 4 in which the team has scored and finally the average goals scored either at home or away [whichever applies]

AGOVV [3.77 , 3/4 , 1.46] v FORTUNA [ 3.75 , 4/4 , 1.58] odds = 1.14 2-4
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DORDRECHT [3.62 , 3/4 , 2.15 ] v EMMEN [3.23 , 3/4 , 0.77] 1.14 3-0
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EINDHOVEN [ 3.00 , 3/4 , 2.0] v CAMBUUR [ 3.31 , 4/4 1.54 ] 1.18 1-1
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GO AHEAD [3.92 , 3/4 , 2.46] v WILLEM [3.31 , 3/4 , 1.77] 1.16 1-3
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FC OSS [4.50 , 3/4 , 2.33] v ZWOLLE [3.08 , 4/4 , 2.00] 1.16

FRANKFURT [3.00 , 4/4 , 1.0] v D DRESDEN [3.50 , 3/4 1.42] 1.16 3-0
smile2.gif


COLCHESTER [3.17 , 3/4 , 1.66] v HUDDERSFIELD [3.50 , 4/4 , 2.25] 1.25
ACCRINGTON [3.19 , 3/4 , 1.62 ] v NORTHAMPTON [3.06 , 4/4 , 1.31 ] 1.25

DORTMUND [3.33 , 3/4 , 2.66] v W BREMEN [3.15 , 2/4 , 1.15] 1.16
HAMBURG [ 3.15 , 3/4 , 1.23] v FREIBURG [4.08 , 2/4 , 1.15 ] 1.22

TWENTE [ 3.67 , 4/4 , 2.75] v FEYENOORD [3.33 , 4/4 , 1.75] 1.16
UTRECHT [ 4.08 , 2/4 , 2.16] v GRONINGEN [3.25 , 2/4 , 0,83] 1.2
PSV [4.67 , 3/4 , 3.33] v HEERENVEEN [3.42 , 3/4 , 2.17] 1.11
AZ ALKMAAR [3.25 , 3/4 , 2.66] v NAC [3.00 , 3/4 , 0.92] 1.12

KOGE [3.44 , 4/4 , 1.22] v AALBORG [3.20 , 3/4 , 1.6] 1.28

Applying the new criteria removes DORTMUND , HAMBURG , UTRECHT [all v teams who have only scored in 2 of their last 4 matches ] and DORDRECHT who play EMMEN [ave home goals are only 0.77.

I suggest an acca on the remaining 6 , thats COLCHESTER , ACCRINGTON , TWENTE , PSV , FC OSS and KOGE [Denmark]
 
AGOVV [3.77 , 3/4 , 1.46] v FORTUNA [ 3.75 , 4/4 , 1.58] odds = 1.14 2-4
smile2.gif

DORDRECHT [3.62 , 3/4 , 2.15 ] v EMMEN [3.23 , 3/4 , 0.77] 1.14 3-0
smile2.gif

EINDHOVEN [ 3.00 , 3/4 , 2.0] v CAMBUUR [ 3.31 , 4/4 1.54 ] 1.18 1-1
smile2.gif

GO AHEAD [3.92 , 3/4 , 2.46] v WILLEM [3.31 , 3/4 , 1.77] 1.16 1-3
smile2.gif

FC OSS [4.50 , 3/4 , 2.33] v ZWOLLE [3.08 , 4/4 , 2.00] 1.16 1-0
angry.gif


FRANKFURT [3.00 , 4/4 , 1.0] v D DRESDEN [3.50 , 3/4 1.42] 1.16 3-0
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COLCHESTER [3.17 , 3/4 , 1.66] v HUDDERSFIELD [3.50 , 4/4 , 2.25] 1.25 1-1
smile2.gif

ACCRINGTON [3.19 , 3/4 , 1.62 ] v NORTHAMPTON [3.06 , 4/4 , 1.31 ] 1.25 2-1
smile2.gif


DORTMUND [3.33 , 3/4 , 2.66] v W BREMEN [3.15 , 2/4 , 1.15] 1.16 1-0
eyes.gif
[But no bet was advised so...
smile2.gif

HAMBURG [ 3.15 , 3/4 , 1.23] v FREIBURG [4.08 , 2/4 , 1.15 ] 1.22 1-3
smile2.gif


TWENTE [ 3.67 , 4/4 , 2.75] v FEYENOORD [3.33 , 4/4 , 1.75] 1.16 0-2
smile2.gif

UTRECHT [ 4.08 , 2/4 , 2.16] v GRONINGEN [3.25 , 2/4 , 0,83] 1.2 3-1
smile2.gif

PSV [4.67 , 3/4 , 3.33] v HEERENVEEN [3.42 , 3/4 , 2.17] 1.11 5-1
smile2.gif

AZ ALKMAAR [3.25 , 3/4 , 2.66] v NAC [3.00 , 3/4 , 0.92] 1.12 0-0
eyes.gif
[again no bet so
smile2.gif
]

KOGE [3.44 , 4/4 , 1.22] v AALBORG [3.20 , 3/4 , 1.6] 1.28 1-1
smile2.gif


Applying the new criteria removes DORTMUND , HAMBURG , UTRECHT [all v teams who have only scored in 2 of their last 4 matches ] and DORDRECHT who play EMMEN [ave home goals are only 0.77] and NAC [only 0.92 ave home goals]

I suggest an acca on the remaining 6 , thats COLCHESTER , ACCRINGTON , TWENTE , PSV , FC OSS
cry.gif
and KOGE [Denmark]


Well you'd never believe it , one let us down !!!

I again must apologise for the late posting of the selections as i'm sure with a bit more use of the Friday games i think we'd be showing maybe a slight profit instead of a 10 pt loss to start us off.

On the plus side , unless we consider total luck as a factor , i did manage to find 2 of the 3 that lost .

Until the end of the season each bet will be placed to return just over double the stake .

So thats the bank on 90pts .

One other thing to note is that i won't be posting mid-week games

This weekend's selction will be posted by Thursday evening at the latest .
 
BOLTON [3.21 , 2/4 , 1.21] v BLACKBURN [3.79 , 3/4 , 1.43] No bet BOLTON only scored in 2/4 games
CHELSEA 3.57 , 3/4 , 2.21] v SPURS [3.07 , 3/4 , 1.57] @ 1.22

CRAWLEY [3.22 , 4/4 , 2.16] v ROTHERHAM [3.32 , 3/4 , 1.63] @ 1.25

MAINZ [3.23 , 4/4 , 1.23]v H BERLIN [3.08 , 1/4 , 1.00] @ 1.28 No bet BERLIN only scored 1/4 games

BOCHUM [3.00 , 2/4 , 1.46] v INGOLSTADT [3.08 , 3/4 , 0.85] @ 1.25 No bet both fail , Mainz only 2/4 scored ,Ingolstadt ave under 1.00]
D DRESDEN [3.15 , 2/4 , 1.92] v MUNICH 1860 [3.08 , 1/4 , 1.54] @ 1.22 No bet both fail last 4 games scored in.

HEERENVEEN [3.92 , 3/4 , 2.30] v DEN HAAG [4.00 , 1/4 , 1.15] @ 1.08 No bet DEN HAAG only 1/4 scored
DE GRAAFSCHAP [3.23 , 1/4 , 0.92] v FEYENOORD [3.23 , 4/4 , 1.77] @ 1.18 No bet DE GRAAFSCHAP only 1/4 scored
AJAX [3.92 , 4/4 , 2.83] v PSV [3.23 , 4/4 , 1.77] @ 1.16

ALMERE [3.46 , 3/4 , 1.92] v FC OSS [3.71 , 4./4 , 1.36] @ 1.115
VOLENDAM [3.92 , 3/4 , 2.23] v SPARTA [3.23 , 2/4 , 2/08] @ 1.175 No bet Sparta only scored in 2/4
ZWOLLE [3.62 , 3/4 , 2.61] v AGOVV [3.69 , 3/4 , 0.85] @ 1.11 [Over 2.0 goals] No bet Agovv ave under 1.00
HELMOND [3.31 , 4/4 , 1.69] v GO AHEAD [3.38 , 4/4 , 1.54] @ 1.175
WILLEM [3.00 , 3/4 , 1.84] v DORDRECHT [3.08 , 3/4 , 0.77] @ 1.16 No bet Dordrecht ave under 1.00

Well there's more rejected by the rules than left to bet on so it'll have to be a 5-timer ALMERE / HELMOND / AJAX / CRAWLEY / CHELSEA which pays 2.33 on bet365
 
Selections for this weekend are -

CARLISLE [3.26 , 3/4 , 1.84] v HUDDERSFIELD [3.33 , 4/4 , 2.17] @ 1.25
BLACKBURN [3.27 , 4/4 , 1.46] v MAN UTD [3.07 , 4/4 , 2.27] @1.18

LEVERKUSEN [3.0 , 3/4 , 1.61] v FREIBURG [4.08 , 3/4 , 1.31] @ 1.2
DORTMUND [3.15 , 3/4 , 2.53] v STUTTGART [3.08 , 3/4 , 1.46] @ 1.14

GRONINGEN [3.31 , 3/4 , 2.0] v HEERENVEEN [3.62 , 3/4 , 2.08] @ 1.14
TWENTE [ 3.54 , 3/4 , 2.53] v RODA [4/08 , 4/4 , 1.15] @ 1.11

FC OSS [4.23 , 4/4 , 2.23] v WILLEM [3.36 , 3/4 , 1.86] @ No odds from 365 yet
VOLENDAM [3.71 , 3/4 , 2.14] v ALMERE [3.36 , 3/4 , 1.36] @ No odds from 365 yet

HORSENS [3.00 , 3/4 , 1.5] v AALBORG [3.09 , 3/4 , 3.09] @ 1.3
 
CARLISLE [3.26 , 3/4 , 1.84] v HUDDERSFIELD [3.33 , 4/4 , 2.17] @ 1.25 2-1
BLACKBURN [3.27 , 4/4 , 1.46] v MAN UTD [3.07 , 4/4 , 2.27] @1.18 0-2

LEVERKUSEN [3.0 , 3/4 , 1.61] v FREIBURG [4.08 , 3/4 , 1.31] @ 1.2 0-2
DORTMUND [3.15 , 3/4 , 2.53] v STUTTGART [3.08 , 3/4 , 1.46] @ 1.14 4-4

GRONINGEN [3.31 , 3/4 , 2.0] v HEERENVEEN [3.62 , 3/4 , 2.08] @ 1.14 1-3
TWENTE [ 3.54 , 3/4 , 2.53] v RODA [4/08 , 4/4 , 1.15] @ 1.11 2-0

FC OSS [4.23 , 4/4 , 2.23] v WILLEM [3.36 , 3/4 , 1.86] 1-1
VOLENDAM [3.71 , 3/4 , 2.14] v ALMERE [3.36 , 3/4 , 1.36] 3-1

HORSENS [3.00 , 3/4 , 1.5] v AALBORG [3.09 , 3/4 , 3.09] @ 1.3 1-0
angry.gif
Yet again one game lets the system down !!

This weekend there is only 3 qualifying games -

CHELSEA [3.33 , 3/4 , 2.06] v WIGAN [3.00 , 4/4 , 1.00] @ 1.16
MAN U [3.67 , 4/4 , 2.66] v QPR [3.00 , 4/4 , 1.07] @ 1.12
ALMERE [3.57 , 4/4 , 2.00] v GO AHEAD [3.57 , 4/4 , 1.5] @ 1.14

Thats spurred me on to take up Lorro's challenge about finding a way to incorporate the UNDER 3.5 goals market .
Still using soccerstats.com i've changed the criteria from that which i've used in the Over 1.5 section .
Here i'm looking at the Trends scetion of the leagues and concentrating those home sides who have a home average of 1.00 and UNDER who are playing against teams who have away averages of 1.07 and UNDER , the total number when added together has to be 2.0 or Under.
The theory being simply teams who don't score many at home against teams who don't score many away from home ...simplesssss.

Argentina - ARSENAL [1.00] v OLIMPO [0.50] Under 3.5 @ 1.25

Eng Champ - NOTTS FOREST [0.95] v BRISTOL CITY [0.70] @ 1.33

Eng L2 - HEREFORD [0.95] v PLYMOUTH [1.05] @ 1.22

France 2 - AMIENS [0.80] v METZ [0.53] @ 1.16
MONACO [1.00] v NANTES [0.80] @ 1.22

Serie A - CESENA [0.79] v BOLOGNA [1.07] @ 1.22

Mexico - PUEBLA [0.71] v TOLUCA [1.00] @ 1.3
PUMAS [0.67] v PACHUCA [1.00] @ 1.25
SAN LUIS [0.67] v JAGUARES [1.00] @ 1.275

Spain - GETAFE [1.07] v SP GIJON [0.93] @ 1.3

If nothing else the odds are better than the Over 1.5's !!



So here we go , remember this has been untried and we're in at the deep end .

For betting i would split the 10 into 2 groups with the lowest average aggregate in one group and the next 5 in the other so it's -

Acca 1 - ARSENAL [Arg] / NOTTS F / AMIENS / PUMAS / SAN LUIS .

Acca 2 - HEREFORD / MONACO / CESENA / PUEBLA / GETAFE.
 
Acca 1 - ARSENAL [Arg] / NOTTS F / AMIENS / PUMAS / SAN LUIS:cry . -10pts

Acca 2 - HEREFORD / MONACO / CESENA / PUEBLA / GETAFE.
banana.gif
returned 30.69pts


Hard pressed for time [ and enthusiasim tbh] so here's the picks for this weekend -

Arg - SAN LORENZO v GODOY @ 1.18 , ARGENTINO'S v BELGRANO @ 1.16

Austria - WIENER v KAPFENBERG @ 1.25

France 2 - LE MANS v AMIENS @ 1.18 , METZ v MONACO @ 1.2.

Romania - CEAHLAUL PIATRA v BRASOV @ 1.2 , OTELUL GALATI v STEAUA @ 1.16 , SPORTUL v ASTRA @ 1.23

Bet 1 - WEINER / CEAHLAUL / SAN LORENZO / ARGENTINOS / LE MANS .

Bet 2 - ALL 8
 
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