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Prem handicap betting

That's that settled then. Just do me a favour and don't bother mentioning what the opinion of the RP or RFO is in a discussion (especially after the event). I might as well tell you what my mate Keith down the pub says.

Before the age of the internet, you would often hear people shouting about how great the Sun and Mirror tipsters were because they'd got four or five winners on the day. If the people shouting had taken the time to actually analyse how good these people were - as I did (and I accept that they are forced to make a selection in every race regardless of the strength of the opinion they might have on those races but, on the flip side, it is what they are actually paid to do) they would find that they would be no more successful following their tips than they would have by puking on the racing page and backing the ones where the carrots landed.

It's the blind stupidity of assuming that the "experts" actually know what they're talking about that irks me.
 
ONEDUNME said:
That's that settled then. Just do me a favour and don't bother mentioning what the opinion of the RP or RFO is in a discussion (especially after the event). I might as well tell you what my mate Keith down the pub says.

Before the age of the internet, you would often hear people shouting about how great the Sun and Mirror tipsters were because they'd got four or five winners on the day. If the people shouting had taken the time to actually analyse how good these people were - as I did (and I accept that they are forced to make a selection in every race regardless of the strength of the opinion they might have on those races but, on the flip side, it is what they are actually paid to do) they would find that they would be no more successful following their tips than they would have by puking on the racing page and backing the ones where the carrots landed.

It's the blind stupidity of assuming that the "experts" actually know what they're talking about that irks me.
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Yes.And what irks me is that you seem to have thought-and probably even still do!-that I dont know that!!

Jesus fucking Christ.

I ve read quite a lot of books about markets in my time and pretty much the number one rule of any kind of investing is,


DONT LISTEN TO EXPERTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Edit;experts should read 'experts'


BUT the interesting thing about antepost accumulators ...is that.......

the 'strategy' BREAKS MOST OF THE 'RULES' of gambling:eek:


To such an extent that it helps to know what the experts are saying.

Now Im not gonna say any more or else I shall be criticised etc.

But if my antepost accumulator thread makes a very good profit the question will be, HOW?
 
Ok, so if we can get back to analysing the current handicap table and betting.....


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The market seems to have this down to a 2-horse race to finish bottom at the moment, but the projected end-figures suggest it could be a lot more competitive than that, with at least another 3 teams easily capable of finishing bottom of the handicap. At this moment you'd have to say West Brom and Swansea are the value at 12.0, with West Brom really struggling to win games (just 1 win in last 14 and that was a 1-0 win over 10-man Newcastle via a late penalty) and Swansea who have just 1 win in 10 (against the woeful Fulham) and are currently managerless. West Ham can't be counted out either and even could even be pulled in to it.

Going back to the two teams who head the market, I think the odds are the wrong way around. Certainly Man Utd are having a nightmare season but with Mata on board and Rooney and Van Persie back, surely they'll be capable of picking plenty of points up. They lost at Stoke on Saturday but it was a wind-affected game which was a leveller and by all accounts they should have got something from the game. They'd won their last 6 games when up against bottom-half teams prior to that.

Fulham on the other hand, well, I watched them last night in the cup against Sheff Utd (2nd bottom of League One) and they were nothing short of FUCKING ATROCIOUS. They were actually a disgrace to their (few) fans who turned up, it was one of the worst games I've ever watched and laughed quite a bit when Sheff Utd scored a 120th minute winner. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if they failed to win another game this season. To avoid finishing bottom of the hcap they are going to need to hit at least a point per game which looks impossible. They have the worst home record in the league and by far and away the worst defensive record overall, and have been haemorrhaging goals lately (441614223 - 27 in last 9 games, av 3 per game) and have a daunting set of fixtures coming up...

09-Feb-14 A Manchester United
12-Feb-14 H Liverpool
22-Feb-14 A West Bromwich Albion
01-Mar-14 H Chelsea
08-Mar-14 A Cardiff City
15-Mar-14 H Newcastle United
22-Mar-14 A Manchester City
30-Mar-14 H Everton


6 games v top-8 teams (Fulham's record v top-9 reads 0-0-11) and the two games against bottom-half teams are away. How many points are they going to get from this run? Maybe 4 or 5 maximum, and that's being kind. Surely they can't get a result on Sunday in the key game v Man Utd (Man Utd 2/9, Fulham 16/1) and defeat there will surely see them go favourites on this market.

There's £40 at 3.05 on Fulham, my head is saying take that now even though they're a winner in my book having had some on at 12.0 previously. Man Utd are my only losers (of the teams who can win).

Opinions?
 
Also, Fulham are 15/8 (Coral) to finish bottom of the Premier League, surely that looks a good price considering they are currently effectively 3 points adrift and have that tough run of fixtures coming up?
 
You'd think so Seen, be Interesting now to see how Swansea shape up now Laudrup has been sacked, he's a very good manager so i wouldn't be surprised to see them slipping further down the league.
 
Well I had thrown all of my betting eggs in one basket, relying on Man Utd to beat Fulham on Sunday, only for the spastic fuckers to fuck it right up. The 'Fulham to finish bottom' @ 15/8 still looks okay but them to finish 'bottom of the handicap' now looks perilous as Man U are favs - that 3-point turnaround with the late equaliser will probably prove costly. Luckily I was able to trade a nice profit on the game (layed Man U @ 1.18 pre-match, then backed them back at 6.0 before they scored and then a little on the draw at 21.0 when it was 2-1) which covers all possible losses plus a little more, so the worst case scenario is a small win - lucky to get out of it. Still can't believe how toothless Man U were in the box.

Just goes to show how you should never totally rely on one result, no matter how certain the result looks.
 
Seen said:
Just goes to show how you should never totally rely on one result, no matter how certain the result looks.
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Which is why I'm looking for longer term markets at this point in the season. West Ham not to be relegated. Waiting for QPR to get to 10/11 or even money to get promoted from the championship (Possibly not showing enough to be considered favourites for automatic promotion but I see them as favourites if - when - they make the play-offs). Then the odd upset doesn't wipe you out.

Lost a small fortune on Sunderland knocking United out of the cup but just had to hold my hands up and say that that was deserved. A late goal is always a kick in the knackers though
 
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Very much looking like a 3-horse race now, on current form and upcoming fixtures I think Sunderland should be favourites, their confidence is at rock bottom and seem incapable of beating even the poorest of teams.

Next fixtures are...

Spurs A
Everton H
Man City A
Chelsea A

...I'll be staggered if they pick up more than one point from those 4 games.
 
Got £6.46 matched @ 10.0 on Sunderland to finish bottom of the handicap yesterday (already my biggest winner in the book, no harm in going to the well again), not sure what idiot layed me but perhaps they've done their maths wrong. They should be no bigger than 2/1 imo and are likely to be odds-on after those next 4 games, unless they can somehow completely turn the form book upside down and inside out.
 
I agree that 2/1 is about the right price but that's because I think it is precisely a three horse race. By which I mean it could well come down to the final day looking at the fixtures. I know that most are expecting United to beat Newcastle today but that's not a given and even if they do, they could easily get beaten away at Everton.

Fulham have two winnable games at home to Norwich and Hull and, by my calculations, that could put them and United within a point or two of each other going into the final game. United have Southampton away which won't be easy and Fulham have Palace at home. Both could go either way.

Sunderland's advantage is that they have two more games to play and even if you class those two games as away to City and Chelsea it doesn't mean they can't pick up a point or two. Unlikely I know but Wigan going to City and winning was unlikely too and they (Sunderland) gave a decent performance against the team that's top of the table for 60 minutes or so a couple of weeks ago.

So, in summary, when we get to this stage of the season, shocks happen (just ask Chelsea) and I wouldn't be surprised to see Sunderland take points from Spurs, Everton or United but I reckon if they take four points from Cardiff and West Brom at home, this market will go into the last game of the season with the possibility of any of the three ending up at the bottom of the handicap.
 
Fulham and Man Utd both won today leaving Sunderland even more likely to finish bottom of the handicap. Fulham are now 2 points above them (in the hcap) and although Sunderland have 3 games in hand, Fulham have by far the easiest run-in and there's no point having games in hand if you are not good enough to win them. Man Utd are on a bit of a roll (5 wins from last 7 league games) and you'd have to fancy them to win their last 3 home games. The vast majority of Sunderland fans have resigned themselves to the fact that we are going down.

Current Betfair odds (back / lay)

1.55 / 3.5 - Man Utd
2.42 / 3.5 - Sunderland
3.45 / 4.7 - Fulham

The lack of liquidity makes Man Utd's price look artificially short (that's my £200 trying to lay 1.55, which would be massive value) but when the market fills out the odds will probably be something like...

3.0 Man Utd
3.0 Sunderland
4.0 Fulham

The 9/1 I got matched at yesterday was far too big, you'd think people would do their homework before putting their money down.

After todays games I did have a fiver saver on Swansea @ 15.0 as they have a tiny squeak of being dragged in to it if the above 3 all suddenly hit form.
 
I do agree with you ODM that this market is highly likely to go right to the last game of the season. At this moment in time I wouldn't take the 2.42 about Sunderland and I don't need to (I'm looking to lay off now), but I do think they'll be odds-on after their next 4 games. Of course a win at Spurs would change all that but it's highly unlikely.
 
Spurs 5-1 Sunderland

I told you we were shite :embarassed
 
My fault Seen. I backed you for a top half finish as well as being top North East club. Sorry man.
 
Fuck me, no doubt you backed Dozy Altidore to be top scorer an'all, eh? :duh
 
:lol

Now hang on a minute, i aint taking the blame for that!!
 
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