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Premiership Relegation 2012/13
- Thread starter ONEDUNME
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Seen
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One way of looking at the relegation markets that has always served me well at this stage of the season is to look at the 'v bottom half' table...
http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/PR/vbothalf.html
...the logic being that these are the vital 6-pointers, lose these and not only are you getting nil points but you give your relegation rivals 3 points, while picking up points against top-half teams is all well and good but your result doesn't affect your rivals around you.
So QPR and VILLA are clearly in big trouble if they continue to fail to pick points up against bottom half teams. NORWICH are the interesting ones for me, they are 13th at the mo but have only won 2 of 11 v bottom half teams and are in freefall at the moment. I stuck £20 on them at 12/1 to go down before they played Newcastle (0-0) (I think they were only 9/1 on BF at the time, only 7.2 now). They have actually picked up more points v top half teams than bottom half teams, and as they are unlikely to carry on their good form v top half teams I can see them being sucked right in to it.
http://stats.football365.com/dom/ENG/PR/vbothalf.html
...the logic being that these are the vital 6-pointers, lose these and not only are you getting nil points but you give your relegation rivals 3 points, while picking up points against top-half teams is all well and good but your result doesn't affect your rivals around you.
So QPR and VILLA are clearly in big trouble if they continue to fail to pick points up against bottom half teams. NORWICH are the interesting ones for me, they are 13th at the mo but have only won 2 of 11 v bottom half teams and are in freefall at the moment. I stuck £20 on them at 12/1 to go down before they played Newcastle (0-0) (I think they were only 9/1 on BF at the time, only 7.2 now). They have actually picked up more points v top half teams than bottom half teams, and as they are unlikely to carry on their good form v top half teams I can see them being sucked right in to it.
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Villa 1 - 2 Newcastle
Newcastle had failed to win a single away game out of 16 this season (incl cups & europe), sorry Swoops but your team fully deserves to go down. Just 7 goals scored in 11 games v bottom half teams is simply pathetic!
Newcastle had failed to win a single away game out of 16 this season (incl cups & europe), sorry Swoops but your team fully deserves to go down. Just 7 goals scored in 11 games v bottom half teams is simply pathetic!
swooperman
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Oh we're in massive trouble, & I can't see where the 6 wins he's talking about are coming from, although I'm not sure it'll need that many points with the amount of teams involved. All of Norwich, West Ham & Fulham might not be clear yet
swooperman
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Think Villa have come out of the Arsenal defeat with confidence intact, although that may have been down to Arsenals week. Need the same against Man City now before massive games against Reading & QPR. Fulham & Sunderland at home are massive as well, as probably is Liverpool. i'd say we need 10 points from those 5 games plus possible fall back fixtures of Norwich & Stoke away. Not sure I see it tbh 
I've had a feeling last 2 weeks that Reading are blowing themselves out & theyre away at 3 of the top 6 in the next 4 with us at home in the mix. If we could win there its very possible to see none from 12 leaving too big a hurdle. They were played off the park at home by Wigan yesterday, who did the same to us.
Wigan have 5 of the next 7 at home against liverpool, Newcastle, Norwich, Swansea & spurs, plus QPR & West Ham away. Theyve got easily the best fixtures although May is tough but even then theyve got a fall back at home to us last day. Theyre down there for a reason & never get clear despite the odd impressive result. They win there 6 pointers though it seems, & although they cant keep getting away with it I think theyve done the hard part & they wont need anything last day. Out of those 7 games above I'd expect 11 points & only if they dont get them can I see them in trouble. I dont see Villa covering their potential points tally, but if Wigan were that good they'd be out of it so it cant be taken for granted.
S'oton have easyish home games. 3 points clear of Villa & Wigan already theyve got QPR, Albion, West Ham & Stoke at home plus trips to Norwich, Sunderland, Swansea & reading. They'll get 40 points i'd think.
The next 3 are massive for Sunderland. Fulham home, QPR away, Norwich home. Minimum 5 points from them, easy street.
Dont see Newcastle getting pulled in, although if they continue in the Europa I suppose it might happen.
West Ham, if they dont get anything from Spurs at home tomorrow, only have 4 home games left from 10, being Albion, Wigan, Newcastle & Reading. If anyone is getting dragged in, i've said all season it'll be them & I still think it.
QPR, forget 'em, theyre shit.
QPR, Reading & Villa down for me
I've had a feeling last 2 weeks that Reading are blowing themselves out & theyre away at 3 of the top 6 in the next 4 with us at home in the mix. If we could win there its very possible to see none from 12 leaving too big a hurdle. They were played off the park at home by Wigan yesterday, who did the same to us.
Wigan have 5 of the next 7 at home against liverpool, Newcastle, Norwich, Swansea & spurs, plus QPR & West Ham away. Theyve got easily the best fixtures although May is tough but even then theyve got a fall back at home to us last day. Theyre down there for a reason & never get clear despite the odd impressive result. They win there 6 pointers though it seems, & although they cant keep getting away with it I think theyve done the hard part & they wont need anything last day. Out of those 7 games above I'd expect 11 points & only if they dont get them can I see them in trouble. I dont see Villa covering their potential points tally, but if Wigan were that good they'd be out of it so it cant be taken for granted.
S'oton have easyish home games. 3 points clear of Villa & Wigan already theyve got QPR, Albion, West Ham & Stoke at home plus trips to Norwich, Sunderland, Swansea & reading. They'll get 40 points i'd think.
The next 3 are massive for Sunderland. Fulham home, QPR away, Norwich home. Minimum 5 points from them, easy street.
Dont see Newcastle getting pulled in, although if they continue in the Europa I suppose it might happen.
West Ham, if they dont get anything from Spurs at home tomorrow, only have 4 home games left from 10, being Albion, Wigan, Newcastle & Reading. If anyone is getting dragged in, i've said all season it'll be them & I still think it.
QPR, forget 'em, theyre shit.
QPR, Reading & Villa down for me
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Long way to go yet Swoops and one team in the relegation battle will usually have a good run in.
I had Reading, QPR and Villa or Southampton to go down and when Southampton got rid of Adkins thought you may have struck lucky but it may now not be the case although I'm half expecting the Saints bubble to burst.
I must admiit it's not looking good for Villa though, looking at your fixture list and being kind I predict 12 points in the remaining games which just won't be enough but then again only 4 short of the usual 40 point safety barrier which with 11 games to go is not impossible to achieve, it's going to boil down to picking points away from home in your last 5 away fixtures.
I had Reading, QPR and Villa or Southampton to go down and when Southampton got rid of Adkins thought you may have struck lucky but it may now not be the case although I'm half expecting the Saints bubble to burst.
I must admiit it's not looking good for Villa though, looking at your fixture list and being kind I predict 12 points in the remaining games which just won't be enough but then again only 4 short of the usual 40 point safety barrier which with 11 games to go is not impossible to achieve, it's going to boil down to picking points away from home in your last 5 away fixtures.
C
Colbro
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Next weekend could be interesting.
Wins for Villa v Qpr, ManU v Reading and Wigan v Newcastle would leave Reading and QPR on 23 points with only 8 games left .
Wins for Villa v Qpr, ManU v Reading and Wigan v Newcastle would leave Reading and QPR on 23 points with only 8 games left .
swooperman
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QPR worry me. I still think they'll go but being confident again they could take us with 'em
ONEDUNME
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Massive win for Villa yesterday. If you're only going to get a limited amount of wins on the run in, best getting them against your fellow strugglers. Don't know if anyone has mentioned yet but Villa's last game is against Wigan and could be a straight shoot out. Effectively the first premiership play off final of the year
There could be nothing in it in goal-difference by then either so could be very very interesting
There could be nothing in it in goal-difference by then either so could be very very interesting
swooperman
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I cant find anywhere who Wigans game in hand is as it obviously hasnt been arranged yet due to the FA Cup. I have a sneaking feeling Wigans continued involvement will hinder them
ONEDUNME
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You'll be pleased to know it's away at Man City mate. Should have been played this weekend but obviously postponed due to Wigan playing Everton in the cup and yet to be rearranged.
C
Colbro
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I think it's Man City away.
swooperman
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Bit of a result that, & my temptation is that like Reading have done the question is whether they can keep the run of performances up, ignoring Liverpool obviously. Reading look doomed the last 4 games, & as well as QPR have done, if they lose at Villa its a 7 point gap & that I think is too much for them to get out, though not big enough for Villa to be safe. S'oton arent safe yet, & a draw or a Stoke win today would be interesting
C
Colbro
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Excellent result yesterday but seems a bit strange to think that at the moment next time Villa step out on to a pitch they could be back in the bottom 3.
I guess the secret is now out about Guzan and we may struggle to keep him next season now too.
I guess the secret is now out about Guzan and we may struggle to keep him next season now too.
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Are Sunderland worth a bet at 4/1?
Just 3 points from last 7 games and next games are Man Utd (H), Chelsea (A), Newcastle (A)
We will get no more than 1 point from those games if we're lucky (might hold Newcastle to a draw but won't beat them, we never do), all it takes in that time is for Wigan to pick up 3 points (and they easily could v QPR next) and Sunderland are just ONE POINT off relegation.
After Newcastle we play Everton (H) who have long been our bogey team, probably lose that one too (especially if we've lost at the Sports Direct WongaDome, fans will be unforgiving), then away to Villa who are playing so much better than us.
Surely the 4/1 can't get any bigger for at least two games?
Just 3 points from last 7 games and next games are Man Utd (H), Chelsea (A), Newcastle (A)
We will get no more than 1 point from those games if we're lucky (might hold Newcastle to a draw but won't beat them, we never do), all it takes in that time is for Wigan to pick up 3 points (and they easily could v QPR next) and Sunderland are just ONE POINT off relegation.
After Newcastle we play Everton (H) who have long been our bogey team, probably lose that one too (especially if we've lost at the Sports Direct WongaDome, fans will be unforgiving), then away to Villa who are playing so much better than us.
Surely the 4/1 can't get any bigger for at least two games?
swooperman
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Very good points
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I just want to throw in a disclaimer here...while everyone knows that I'm an absolute genius at horse racing betting 
I have to admit that I am the worlds biggest spastic when it comes to footy betting - seriously, it's unbelievable, everything I touch on it turns to a massive lump of shit 
So expect a shock result when Man Utd visit Sunderland in 2 weeks.
I have to admit that I am the worlds biggest spastic when it comes to footy betting - seriously, it's unbelievable, everything I touch on it turns to a massive lump of shit So expect a shock result when Man Utd visit Sunderland in 2 weeks.