Was looking at various stuff for the management markets & had an idea. Writing this whilst keeping half an ear on Swansea/Spurs but that's not going to affect what I'm thinking whatever the result, neither is Albion/Everton regarding the info I'm looking at, & then there's over a weeks break due to the FA Cup.
With the bottom half of the table so tight, there's obviously a large amount of '6-pointers', & with 16 games to go & a small break, I thought it was an idea to look at the correlation of remaining fixtures as, obviously, the breakdown of opponents is likely to be important (or absolutely fuck all to do with it
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A lot depends whether you think both ends of the table will go to the wire, meaning fewer dead games. The bottom will, but will the top? If Man City continue to score 11.2 goals per game, probably not but I don't think it'll be over far before the end.
That's the other end though, this is the bottom.
There's only 6 points between the bottom 11, & only 3 between the bottom 7. I've always believed, as a Villa fan, that not enough teams can cover it to drop us in it, but it's certainly possible. Everyone still thinks Norwich are in trouble, including me, yet they're only 1 point behind Villa, & nobody but nobody's mentioning Hull, so there's a lot of potential disasters waiting to happen.
For the purposes of this, I've divided the table into 3 parts. Yes, Man Utd aren't what they were but they're still Man Utd so the first part is the top 7. Newcastle are in the middle ground for me, not going to make any impact higher & with 36 points they're not getting dragged in as you won't need 40 with the amount of teams involved. I almost put S'oton in with the Toon, being 7 points clear of Villa, but with what's going on at the club the small potential of them going into freefall is there, & Pocchetinno might walk yet so I've kept them involved down below, they have after all only take 9 points from the last 33, making it a bottom 12.
So, ignoring Newcastle altogether, the bottom 12's fixtures are divided into 4 columns. Home v bottom 12, away v bottom 12, home v top 7, away v top 7.
S'oton 3, 6, 4, 2
Villa 7, 3, 1, 4
Hull 3, 7, 4, 1
Norwich 3, 6, 4, 2
Stoke 4, 6, 3, 2
Swansea 7, 4, 1, 3 (not including today but Spurs just scored)
Albion 4, 6, 4, 3
Palace 4, 5, 4, 2
Fulham 4, 5, 2, 4
West Ham 5, 4, 3, 4
Sunderland 7, 1, 1, 6
Cardiff 6, 4, 1, 4
The difference in games played is only a couple of sides don't have Newcastle to play so for these figures they've got an extra game, plus Albion haven't played yet this weekend.
Things that jump out are: everyone has either 9 or 10 games against teams around them, except Sunderland who have only 8. In their favour is that 7 of them are at home but against that they've got 6 trips to the top 7. It is at least in their hands but you'd imagine they need to win 5 of those 7 to get anywhere near 36 points to give themselves a fighting chance.
West Hams fate is likely to be decided in February, where after playing Chelsea they've got Swansea, Norwich & S'oton at home with Villa away. They need at least 7 points from those, which would put them on 25 with 11 to play. Any less than that & it looks a bit like Everest on top of K2
Also they play spurs & Man City last 2.
Both Swansea & Villa have 7 home games against the bottom 12, meaning you'd think there'd be enough chances to get out. That's not as clear cut as it sounds as Villa are better away & have only 8 points at home, but you'd think that 3 wins & 2 draws from those 7 would do enough. Also Villa are better against better sides when they don't have to try & do much other than counter so the 4 away against the top 7 might produce the odd point. Play like last night & no problem
I don't see it, but then I'm biased. Swansea's itinerary is very similar, the complication possibly being the Palace game is sraight after the Napoli double header. What's their record like after Europa games?
Cardiff's fixtures are again very similar, but they need to find their feet & fast. Only 7 home games but 6 against the bottom 12? In their own hands but I fear for them.
Stoke haven't got many home games against the others but they're always hard to beat at home so they could get a couple of draws against the bigger boys, & if Palace can continue their revival there's 13 from 15 games they can get something from. Can they keep it going? They're odds on to go but he's doing some job.
I don't see Fulham getting much away no matter who they're playing & their GD is a train wreck. Their 6 home games are enormous, 4 against the bottom 12. 3 wins from 4 & a draw in the other? That means they still need an away win & 4 draws for 36?! Don't see it.
Hull have 7 at home & have made signings, but only 3 at home v the bottom 12. Yes they've got some steel & might get a couple of home draws v the big boys but they need 2 wins from those 3 at home. Nick one away & they need 4 or 5 draws from somewhere. i don't see them going down & nobodys talking about them although I thought their price might be longer due to that. there's potential to get dragged in with their fixture list though.
I've never really considered S'oton but with their problems they could gift a few points out to other sides. not a helpful fixture list but it'd need a Devon Loch, or a Paul Jewell's Wigan
Norwich. as big as 9/2. To my mind that's fucking enormous. 7 home games but only 3 against the lower sides, bearing in mind they have Newcastle at home next so although I'm ignoring the Toon that fixtures massive. GD is bad so if they lose next up, they need 2 home wins from 3, plus 1 away & 4 draws for 36. That's a lot, they need something against the Toon. there's not a lot of faith in Hughton & he could be managing at 75 & still be seen as inexperienced
Swansea 2 down.
Palace have got to keep it all going as you feel a crack & morale dropping & there's no way back, but they're giving themselves a chance. Norwich @ 9/2 is must bet in my eyes, & I think Fulham @ Evs will go with them. Then for me it's 1 of Sunderland (Evs to 6/4) West Ham (6/4) Cardiff (Evs & just below) & Palace.
Palace are no value at all for me @ around 8/11 but they've got to keep doing it all right with no fuck ups. If I was going to stick my neck out I'd say Norwich, fulham & Cardiff
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