Premiership Winner 2013/14

[ONEDUNME]

With potentially the most open Premiership for years, I thing it may be interesting to keep track of how the prices fluctuate. I back and lay throughout the season and can't remember the last time I had a losing season. Didn't make a penny last season as I was sitting on a profit on United and "re-invested" it with a view on the price drifting out so that I could lock in a profit. It never happened.

That was in total contrast to the season before where I was, literally, backing and laying right up to the final whistle.

Anyway, I haven't kept absolute track of the betfair odds pre-season but I think I'm right in saying that Chelsea were slight pre-season favs with City just behind them and United 3rd favs at over 5/2.

Prior to yesterday's City Swansea game, City were favs at around 7/4 (despite Chelsea's 2 wins from 2 - perhaps people were less than convinced with the performance). Of course, with City unexpectedly losing that game, the picture changed and by kick off time in the Man United Chelsea game tonight, City and Chelsea were both joint favs at about 5/4 apiece and United still around 11/4.

You would expect a winner of tonight's game would become clear fav but there seems to be a reluctance to back United which I don't quite understand. Maybe people aren't happy with no big name summer signing but I'm going with the proven formula and I'm with United (as I start off with every season).

 

[ONEDUNME]

Of course, I should mention the odds of the other runners just in case it turns into a real shock season (and I don't see why Spurs can't spring a shock to be honest, so I've put a little bit on them at around 25/1.

Arsenal are around 16/1and Liverpool and Spurs are currently around 20/1.

Everton 700/1 and everyone else at maximum 1000

 

[hotspur]

I will read this with interest.

You were a bit surprised that City remained favourites(before Cardiff) even after Chelseas 2 wins.

I believe there are 2 reasons for that:

a)because City have been well tipped in the Racing Post

b)because Chelseas price has already come down from 5-1 (before Mourinhio) to 2s (as of course you know)

 

[slick]

I was suprised to see United third favourites before the season kicked off, with their history of winning the Prem it was a bit of a joke, ok they have a new manager but so do City and United.
Can see the top 3's odds going up and down like a yoyo between now and Christmas, be even more interesting should Spurs or Liverpool put up a good fight this yr, as for Arsenal I think they will struggle to get a Champs league spot this season.

 

[hotspur]

I was suprised to see United third favourites before the season kicked off, with their history of winning the Prem it was a bit of a joke, ok they have a new manager but so do City and United.
Can see the top 3's odds going up and down like a yoyo between now and Christmas, be even more interesting should Spurs or Liverpool put up a good fight this yr, as for Arsenal I think they will struggle to get a Champs league spot this season.

But did you bet on them,slick? Man Utd I mean.

If when you saw Utd were 3rd favourites you didnt have a bet ,well thats why theyre 3rd favourites.

Because relatively few have been betting on them.

But theres also a good reason for not betting on them at the moment and thats because of their incredibly hard start to the season.

Playing Liverpool and City away and Blues at home in the first 6 games or so is very unusual.

That plus the lack of a marquee(?) signing ,plus the very large liabilities on Chelsea plus City being the most tipped team explains the odds.

(Not to even mention Rooney wanting away,now that hes probably staying)

 

[hotspur]

Personally,I think it may prove to be harder to profit from the price changes this season than in recent seasons.
(Though if City dont sort their defence out that may not be the case after all)

 

[ONEDUNME]

Personally,I think it may prove to be harder to profit from the price changes this season than in recent seasons.
(Though if City dont sort their defence out that may not be the case after all)

I absolutely, positively disagree with that statement. I'm 100% convinced that it will be easier to profit than in previous seasons, and I'll tell you why (very, very over-simplistically). Imagine a two horse race with City last season, United could be a point behind City going into a game with a game in hand and start the game favs at 4/5 because they are expected to win the game.midway through the game they are 1-0 up and go to 4/6 because they're looking good and playing well. The unexpected happens and they concede an equaliser with 30 minutes to go. They are still expected to go on to win so the price goes back to 4/5. However, they concede again and go on to lose the game. They are now a point behind in the title race and are 5/4 second favs.

So the price has fluctuated between 4/6 and 5/4 in the space of one game.

Now imagine that, instead of being one point behind one team, they are one point behind both City and Chelsea going into the above game. Granted they will not be as short as 4/5 going into the game because they have twice the competition, so lets say that they are just a shade of odds on at 10/11, being expected to win the game. They go a goal up and shorten to 4/5 (still shorter than if it were a 2 horse race). When the final whistle blows and they have lost, they are not a point behind one rival, but two - with the odds of both slipping up, greater than the chance of one team having a bad run. They are therefore more likely to be around the region of 7/5.

I also disagree that most people need the fucking Racing Post to tell them who is likely to win the Premiership

 

[ONEDUNME]

Latest prices with 25 mins gone in the Man City Hull game and no movement despite the fact that Hull have had at least as many good chances as City.

Man City 2/1 3 on betfair
Chelsea a shade over at 3.3 (9/4 ish)
United still an amazing (in my view) 3/1+ (4.3)

 

[ONEDUNME]

65 mins ish gone in the Man City Hull game and City and Chelsea both together at 3.25. In fact, as I type, Chelsea go very very slight favs at 3.2. This is what I mean about the prices fluctuating. If City score, they will shoot to around just over the 7/4 mark I would say.

 

[ONEDUNME]

Standings and prices on the day of the first Manchester derby with three teams at 3/1.

Chelsea 10pts from 5 games 3/1 (4.1)
Liverpool 10 from 5 14/1 (15)
Arsenal 9 from 4 7/1 (8.2)
Spurs 9 from 4 11/1 (12.5)
Everton 9 from 5 (250)
City 7 from 4 3/1 4.1
United 7 from 4 3/1 4.1

With apologies to Southampton who have as much chance of winning the league as I have of shagging Cheyl Cole (i.e, no chance as I'm not answering her phone calls).

Arsenal or Spurs could go top today if they win, so if you think they have a squeak of winning the league and you think they're nailed on today, you could do worse than to back them at 7/1 or 11/1 respectively and lay them later today to leave a free bet. I'd estimate that Spurs could be around 11 to lay leaving a free bet to win £15 for your tenner (which you get back).

 

[swooperman]

Arsenal look the value to me there, & that was at 0-0, but someones scored downstairs

 

[swooperman]

I'll clarify that. i'm assuming arsenal scored in everyone's downstairs, but they definitely have in mine

 

[hotspur]

I absolutely, positively disagree with that statement. I'm 100% convinced that it will be easier to profit than in previous seasons, and I'll tell you why (very, very over-simplistically). Imagine a two horse race with City last season, United could be a point behind City going into a game with a game in hand and start the game favs at 4/5 because they are expected to win the game.midway through the game they are 1-0 up and go to 4/6 because they're looking good and playing well. The unexpected happens and they concede an equaliser with 30 minutes to go. They are still expected to go on to win so the price goes back to 4/5. However, they concede again and go on to lose the game. They are now a point behind in the title race and are 5/4 second favs.

So the price has fluctuated between 4/6 and 5/4 in the space of one game.

Now imagine that, instead of being one point behind one team, they are one point behind both City and Chelsea going into the above game. Granted they will not be as short as 4/5 going into the game because they have twice the competition, so lets say that they are just a shade of odds on at 10/11, being expected to win the game. They go a goal up and shorten to 4/5 (still shorter than if it were a 2 horse race). When the final whistle blows and they have lost, they are not a point behind one rival, but two - with the odds of both slipping up, greater than the chance of one team having a bad run. They are therefore more likely to be around the region of 7/5.

I also disagree that most people need the fucking Racing Post to tell them who is likely to win the Premiership

Hmmm,

So you are actually betting while the games go on unless Ive completely misunderstood(its early).

Well,in that case ,what youve just written may well be right.

I was referring to betting after the games are completed,because thats what I do and,so far as Im aware-I could be wrong-its what most people do.

Also,my quote says "it may be harder...... " not "you may find it harder..."


I still believe that most people will/would/may find it harder to profit from price changes in The Premiership market this season than in previous seasons.

If you yourself find it easier thats because this appears to be an area of expertise on your part and also because you are betting while the games go on.

Obviously,if you are betting while the games go on then in a 3,4 or 5 horse race there will be many more opportunities to bet in running.



As for your comment about The Racing Post, Im really not sure what point youre answering?


Did I say or imply that people need to read The Post to have an idea who is going to win The Premiership?

Its my belief that if a team has been tipped in The Racing Post antepost then this has an affect on their odds.

Not necessarily immediately-in fact usually not immediately-but in the amount they change for a period thereafter.

( As for why this should be,I dont really mind. I just try to make money from this belief/'knowledge' but the logical reason would be that odds compilers believe that The Racing post does in fact have some influence on where some of the money goes.)



AS far as I gather,you fundamentally disagree with this.


No problem ODM.


One thing Im bound to point out though -for any neutrals,you understand-is that I have come to this conclusion after many

years of reading The Racing Posts preseason pullout-which has many ,many tips and excellent

information (and also your hated RFO's tips)and thus I have been able to see whether this happens.

OF COURSE,its all very subjective but IF you yourself havnt avidly read their preseason tips over many years due to your

skepticism/knowledge/whatever then maybe,just maybe I am in the better position to judge?

 

[ONEDUNME]

You may be right in thinking that the RP may have an impact on the way that people bet on the lower leagues but the Prem? Nah. You have to take into account that only fans and gamblers bet on the lower leagues whereas all sorts of idiots chuck money at Premiership games. As a result, they are more likely to place a bet as a result of the closed season signings and/or the news they hear on the 24 hour TV football updates than anything they read in the RP.

The very idea that people chose to back the richest club in the world to win the Prem based on an RP write up rather than the fact that they'd made the better signings or that the manager that had been responsible for their success for the last god knows how many seasons is just laughable.

then maybe,just maybe I am in the better position to judge?

Nope

 

[ONEDUNME]

Days like today prove that I'm right and hotspur is talking shit. There has never been more opportunity for price fluctuations



Current prices
Man City 3.5
Chelsea 4.3
Arsenal 5.4
Man United 8.2 (yes 7/1)
Spurs 9.6
Liverpool 13.5
Everton 180

 

[Colbro]

Walking out of Villa Park today I kept thinking about this thread and how the odds must have changed during the day.

Definitely something I am going to keep a closer eye on through the season

Everton - 180.00

They are the only unbeaten team so far and could be third on Monday night

 

[ONEDUNME]

A vivid indication of what I'm talking about

Arsenal or Spurs could go top today if they win, so if you think they have a squeak of winning the league and you think they're nailed on today, you could do worse than to back them at 7/1 or 11/1 respectively and lay them later today to leave a free bet. I'd estimate that Spurs could be around 11 to lay leaving a free bet to win £15 for your tenner (which you get back).

If you'd fancied Arsenal or Spurs last week, you could have...

Backed Arsenal at 7/1 and be laying them at 9/2 for a free bet

Backed Spurs at 11/1 and be laying them for 9/1 for a free bet

 

[swooperman]

7/1 on United ??????? I thought 7/1 on Arsenal last week was good, but 7/1 United after 6 games when nobodys breaking clear????? I was kicking myself for not backing Arsenal in the summer, but not now

 

[peleus]

I'll still have my money on Arsenal on their next game!

 

[Andrew Scaife]

It's certaingly a three horse race now:

Arsenal
Chelsea
Liverpool

Arsenal have got 79.2% of their available points thus far and have won with decent margins (as have Chelsea), but also consider that Arsenal have 6 goal scorers on their squad (Chelsea 5 and Liverpool only 3) ... Arsenal will win this season.