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Premiership Winner 2013/14

:lol Aye, maybe I typed that out without thinking, it was nearly 1am man :)

Even allowing for that game to be tricky, it's still winnable and their position does seem to be in their own hands the way their final fixtures are set up. Like I said, I don't really see them winning but 14/1 does look a bit big especially if Arsenal continue to drop points. It's mainly for a view to trade, I think they'll beat Fulham tomorrow (don't be fooled by their point at OT, they are a very poor team (they must be to allow the opposition to put 82 crosses in)) while Arsenal could easily drop 2pts v Man Utd the same night.

I've just seen that Liverpool are 6.4 for a top-2 finish on BF and I've taken 7/2 with my ew bet - I did check the win market (14/1) which is why I backed with the bookies but overlooked the place part - obviously I should have had the win part with the books and place on BF. Crap.
 
Updated Betfair odds...

2.24 - Man City
2.74 - Chelsea
9.6 - Liverpool
11.5 - Arsenal
 
I'm taking some of Liverpool, that's just too high considering they have to play both City and Chelsea at home.
Best thing that could happen to Liverpool now is they go out of the cup and end up having one game a week because at the moment City, Chelsea and Arsenal look to have too much on their plates, more so City who need to reschedule tonight's match on what is already a clogged up fixture list.
 
On the face of things they made hard work of winning tonight, but they showed that they could dig in in difficult conditions, behind twice (first to a freak own goal) away from home against a side fighting for their lives, yet still had enough to win the game.

The fact they have so many goals in them is what gives them a squeak.
 
Same could be said of all the top teams at the moment Seen, they are all beginning to look a bit jaded, If Liverpool get down to one game a week; it could pay dividends for them.
 
Nah Slick, we dont want to be knocked out of the cup, it's not like we're in a European competition to have to prioritize. We might get knocked out but it wont be for lack of trying. It's only 4 games away from a final.
I agree with what your saying about the other teams having a lot on their plate, i reckon that gives us a chance and 15/2 looks a slightly generous price to win it imo.
 
As Seen said, tonight - although on the face of it could be viewed as a negative- shows that they have the faith the drive and the belief that they really are good enough. It would be easy for players to subconciously think they've overachieved and to accept that it really is all going to peter out but they didn't.


Even the best United champion sides had games against supposedly inferior opposition that they struggled in during the course of a season so I don't hol that against them.

Yet I don't see them winning it. The key is obviously City and Xhelsea's away form and, yes, they both need to go to Anfield but beating only one of the two would only serve to give the advantage to the other. For me, they would need to win both to win the title - and I don't see that happening.
 
I'd go along with all of that, ODM, it's gonna take some doing taking 6 points from those two home games, 4 points might just be enough though. Still a tough ask but my bet was always about value and a view to trade, 14/1 looked too big and they were cut to 11/1 without even playing (when Chelsea dropped 2 pts) and are now in to 8/1.

The question now is do I lay the win part off now or wait until they've played Swansea at home next. On paper they should win (4/11 - they are 7-1-0 v bottom half teams at home) so will shorten even more if they do, but dropped points there are they'll be back to 12/1.

I locked in a £38 free bet yesterday on them finishing top 2 (backed 13/2, layed 5.6) so I'm currently...

+388 ... champions
+88 ... runners-up
-40 ... 3rd or worse

...so I can lay £20 win part at 10.0 to leave me...

+208 ... champions
+108 ... runners-up
-20 ... 3rd or worse
 
I understood that your bet was about the movement in prices rather than what's likely to end up happening in May mate - mine was just general comments.

I'm a stickler for trying to get my stake back at the earliest oportunity myself. So much so that I'm convinced its been detrimental to my profits over the years. I can't reconcile that I'm a gambler through and through and yet a soon as a choice arises where I can get my stake back (and reduce my winnings, obviously) I amost always do it!

I can't remember off the top of my head what Liverpool's Feb/March fixtures are but you would have to see the top three falling down in a couple of their games each given the cup/European commitments.

That said, Liverpool went out to over the price that u backed them out when behind last night so, you could be right , one slip up could mean the end of ur chances to trade the win bet.

Similar dilemma to the one Punter had with his La Liga bet and only one man can make the call.
 
Arsenal, Chelsea and Man City all play their next league game on Sat 22nd while Liverpool play on the Sunday, Arsenal could easily drop 2 points v Sunderland and Chelsea likewise v Everton, even if they all win I can't see Liverpool going much bigger. I think I'll wait until after the Sat games.
 
The lack of a top class finisher is a major worry for me, Swoops, especially with Walcott out and Ozil not really firing. Giroud is not consistent enough and is out of form, missing chances which he should be scoring.

In stark contrast to Liverpool, they're starting games very slowly - they've failed to score in the first half in 9 of their last 10 games (0000200000).
 
ONEDUNME said:
I'm a stickler for trying to get my stake back at the earliest oportunity myself. So much so that I'm convinced its been detrimental to my profits over the years. I can't reconcile that I'm a gambler through and through and yet a soon as a choice arises where I can get my stake back (and reduce my winnings, obviously) I amost always do it!
Click to expand...


I've began to do the same over the past couple of years and feel exactly the same. I've tried convincing myself not to lay unless my bet goes odds on in recent weeks but another part of me keeps saying getting my stake back is the right thing to do.

I took Liverpool pre season @ 38 knowing that they were way too high, £20 with a lay bet in mind. But i've since, during the season convinced myself to firstly get my stake back and then later on convince myself they cant win it. I layed them off @ 15 and again @ 6.6 when they topped the table at Christmas. Of the over £700 i stood to make, i've wiped £500 off in lays for a £30 profit if they dont win it. Daft really isnt it.
Not that i'll be bothered about the £500 i wiped off if they do win it, i'll be in cloud cuckoo land anyway if that happens and wont give a toss. But if it had been another pick with same situation, i guess i'd be feeling a little sick about it.

Anyway, they cant win it, so i've made the right choice.

Seen, i was just looking at the straight forecast betting and trying to work out if this type of bet could help you, maybe get another edge too? :thinking
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/straight-forecast

I think Arsenal are gone personally Swoop. Europa league for them next season.
 
Of the over £700 i stood to make, i've wiped £500 off in lays for a £30 profit if they don't win it. Daft really isn't it.
Click to expand...

There's nothing wrong with trading a free bet or locking in a profit - those who say it's cowardly are living in the past. The way we're able to gamble has transformed over the last 10 years or so, it's totally different now - almost every bet I make now is with a view to trade a positive position.

Of course it's all relative to the current situation of the original bet, if you just lay off every bet as soon as the odds shorten then you will be throwing money away, but laying the right price will make your bets more profitable long term.

I remember a couple of years ago my brother had backed over 6.5 goals in a game at something like 60.0, there had been 6 goals scored after 70 mins and he stood to win something like £1,800 and he could have layed off at something like 1.2, he let it ride and there were no more goals :duh He just couldn't bear the thought of winning less than he was going to when he put the bet on, even though he could have greened up to win £1,500 guaranteed - from a £30 stake. Crazy.

At 14/1 Liverpool were too big, now they are probably the right price at 8/1, so now looks the time to trade.
 
Mind, it would be nice to be able to green up on a single race, I've lost on every fucking race today :ohwell


v5mp.png
 
Unlucky Seen but I know how it feels.
8/1 for Liverpool does look about right and if that's the case the price for Arsenal has a lot of value to it considering they still hold a 2 point advantage over Liverpool, those prices have obviously been fixed with the remaining fixtures taken into account where Arsenal look to have a tough run in and if that's the case then City's is nearly as bad if not worse with a League cup final to consider.
That's why I said I fancied either Chelsea or Liverpool for the title.
Punt I didn't mention it would be better if Liverpool went out of the cup just for their sake and playing one game a week, but it also piles up Arsenal's fixture list which would work in Liverpool's favour.
Should Arsenal go out of the cup and also go out of the Champs league which will happen in all probability; then expect Arsenal's odds to drop for the title, Liverpool going out of the cup could prove vital if they want to win the Prem and believe me looking at the fixture list they have a great chance.
I think Chelsea will do it but should they slip up then imo Liverpool look the most likely to take advantage when I look at the top 4's remaining fixtures.
 
Cheers Slick - it was certainly a test of patience today but I finally had a good win in the 8.45 Dundalk to win a chunk back, only lost £29 in the end which I'll happily take.

As for the Prem winners, I'm sure there will be further twists and turns before the end.
 
Punt I didn't mention it would be better if Liverpool went out of the cup just for their sake and playing one game a week, but it also piles up Arsenal's fixture list which would work in Liverpool's favour.
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Good point Slick, i didn't think of it like that.
 
Arsenal haven't a cat in hell's chance of getting past Bayern but the way the FA cup has worked out; they will get a good run if they get past liverpool, that takes them out of the premiership equation.
 
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