Punt's weekly coupon

[Punter]

Sunderland v Newcastle United

Adam Johnson, £6 Anytime scorer @ 7/2
Adam Johnson, £2 First scorer @ 12/1
Adam Johnson, £2 Last scorer @ 12/1

Betvic

 

[Punter]

Week 10, no return

At the week 10 mark, probably a quarter of the way in, summary...

I'm shit and i'm lucky to be in profit. Just 2 profitable weeks out of the 10, of which included 4 weeks without any return at all.
I need to try and stick to 1X2 markets as much as possible now.
Also a note to self , go ante post betting in weeks 9 and 10 next year instead, presuming international breaks are the same.

Total Staked To Date £300.00
Total Returned To Date £516.87

Talking of Ante Post bets, i'll post mine in here now...

(From here http://www.betnod.com/threads/npower-league-two-betting-18th-august.1320/page-2 )

Bradford City
10 e.w @ 22/1 VCBet
2.50 e.w @ 20/1 Hills
5 @ 20 Betdaq

Oxford Utd
6 @ 16 VCBet
4 @ 7/2 VCbet (for promotion)

I've also just added one last bet on Bradford again. Gillingham are flying and dont look like stopping but with only a quarter of games played i like the place value on Bradford, i really cant understand why they are still so big. They've recruited well and have used Alan Connell sparingly, he will start scoring regualy for them in weeks to come. Bradford sit 5th at present time, 12pts behind the leaders.
My call is Gillingham, Port Vale and Bradford will be bunched at the top for the automatic promotion places. I can see Fleetwood dropping into the Playoff positions with Rotherham, Cheltenham and one other.

Bradford £20 e.w @ 22/1 Paddy Power, 3 places, 1/4 odds

I also have £3 win and place on Gateshead, which i can forget, along with the Oxford bet.

 

[slick]

You should go with the picks you have in the predictor league ya stuffy cnut, another week when I thought I'd clawed a few points back only to see you get another bastard correct score draw banker bonus

 

[hotspur]

Week 10, no return

At the week 10 mark, probably a quarter of the way in, summary...

I'm shit and i'm lucky to be in profit. Just 2 profitable weeks out of the 10, of which included 4 weeks without any return at all.
I need to try and stick to 1X2 markets as much as possible now.
Also a note to self , go ante post betting in weeks 9 and 10 next year instead, presuming international breaks are the same.

Total Staked To Date £300.00
Total Returned To Date £516.87

Talking of Ante Post bets, i'll post mine in here now...

(From here http://www.betnod.com/threads/npower-league-two-betting-18th-august.1320/page-2 )

Bradford City
10 e.w @ 22/1 VCBet
2.50 e.w @ 20/1 Hills
5 @ 20 Betdaq

Oxford Utd
6 @ 16 VCBet
4 @ 7/2 VCbet (for promotion)



I've also just added one last bet on Bradford again. Gillingham are flying and dont look like stopping but with only a quarter of

games played i like the place value on Bradford, i really cant understand why they are still so big. They've recruited well and

have used Alan Connell sparingly, he will start scoring regualy for them in weeks to come. Bradford sit 5th at present time, 12pts behind the leaders.
My call is Gillingham, Port Vale and Bradford will be bunched at the top for the automatic promotion places. I can see Fleetwood dropping into the Playoff positions with Rotherham, Cheltenham and one other.

Bradford £20 e.w @ 22/1 Paddy Power, 3 places, 1/4 odds

I also have £3 win and place on Gateshead, which i can forget, along with the Oxford bet.

I can explain why Bradford are 20-1 Punter.

If either of the 4 teams above them in the betting win the league the bookies would lose much more money than they would if Bradford were to win-even at 20s.

Without those liabilities Bradford would probably still be 16s(their true odds probably being anything from 12s to 22s) as Gillingam are still so far ahead and,according to the Burton boss,are easily the best team they've played and should win the league comfortably.

You can be sure that the bookies read that and also know that many "clued up" punters would have read it.

CRUCIALLY ,1000s of punters prefer to do antepost accas rather than tie up their money for 7 months on a single(indeed I am really surprised that so many people on here bet singles even on ante post markets!).And also crucially most of those people bet on the teams that are already TOP(or at least 2nd)

Hence its those teams the bookies need to keep onside.

They aint worried about offering a bit of value on teams lower down(whether its place value or not)because most pros wouldn't want to tie up significant money on a single for so long on and most non-pros are betting tiny amounts.


As for any place value-bookies are more than happy to allow anyone to bet each-way on a single.

Its people attempting to steal place value in multiple bets that they restrict.


NOW,I suspect that this is an example of one of my posts that some people find objectionable as I apparently come across as a guru.

WELL,Hey!

Either Bradford are value or they aint.If they are AND Punter, at least, thinks its OBVIOUSLY value there MUST be a logical reason.

If anyone on here has a better one than the one Ive given I would sincerely love to see it.

Im still learning about ante post markets

 

[hotspur]

NB Having said all that,it cannot be emphasised enough that ,because of the over rounds on ante post markets,there are very few genuinely value prices available during the season.

 

[Punter]

You should go with the picks you have in the predictor league ya stuffy cnut, another week when I thought I'd clawed a few points back only to see you get another bastard correct score draw banker bonus

Stuffy? I hope that doesnt mean lucky up your way I even posted up last weeks banker score in the weekend thread, nobody listened! ....not even me
But yes, i'm flying in that comp', 216th out of 71,815 at present Maybe i should follow my banker score, 3 correct from 8 so far.

Hotspur you are probably right, but if i was a bookie i wouldn't have them in double figures even for those reasons. They are my banker e.w antepost bet of the season.
They've got plenty of good league 1 and 2 players in their squad, they are the best supported and many a team have their blips from now until xmas, i think Bradford have already had theirs.
They'll be as short as 5/1 by the end of January.


Week 11

(Tues)
Bolton DNB @ 23/20
Ipswich @ 11/8
Bradford @ 6/4

£2 Trixie, Betvic

 

[slick]

Nice one Punt, the Bolton DNB was a cracking pick, just a pity those bastards Derby let you down.

 

[Punter]

Not a brilliant choice of staking from me there Slick and i haven't got a clue why i'd want to back a team at the wrong end of the table. Bradford were my main target for a bet all along and i tried boosting with a trixie, i got a bit greedy. £8 staked, £5 returned from that bet.

I'm a bit pissed off i didnt place this bet straight after last nights games as i could of taken Bradford at the weekend again @ 15/8, i've come back today and they're into 13/8 now....

Bradford @ 13/8
Hereford @ 15/8

2 x £9 wins
1 x £4 double.

That's my £30 total staked for week 11

 

[Punter]

Having a tenner on top again..

Gareth Bale to score/Spurs to win, £6 @ 100/30
Gareth Bale to score 2 or more, £3 @ 10/1
Gareth Bale Hat-trick, £1 @ 50/1

 

[Punter]

Bale scores Spurs win, wasn't enough for a profitable weekend the way i went about my staking though. Hereford drew, Bradford lost.

Week 11
Staked £40
Returned £31

Total Staked To Date £340.00
Total Returned To Date £547.87

 

[Punter]

Week 12

Hereford v Shrewsbury, DRAW
£14 win @ 12/5


Forest Green Rovers @ 5/2
Van Persie, score/win @ 9/5
Hereford v Shrewsbury, DRAW @ 12/5
£1.50 Trixie = £6

 

[Punter]

Van Persie the only winner last week, no returns.

Total Staked To Date £360.00
Total Returned To Date £547.87

No coupon this week, i've spent my allowance on an Ante Post bet instead..

Liverpool, Top 4 finish @ 9/1
Bradford City, promotion @ 7/2

£30 double at Betvic

 

[Rushinrogan]

Brave call putting Liverpool in the top four. They need to improve a heck of lot for that to happen. Good luck anyway.

 

[Punter]

Cheers Rushin' and yes you're right Liverpool do need to improve, but then again so do Arsenal and Spurs.

I see you're a gooner Rushin and i've nothing against Arsenal at all but you've become a bit of a buy, sell, buy sell club in recent seasons, not much continuity there anymore. Brilliant football some games but not consistant enough. I think Arsenal got found out at home to Chelsea and they know they're not top 3 anymore.
The other thing that i think might go against Arsenal this season is that they've qualified for the Champions League for 15 consecutive seasons now, without winning it, i just get the feeling that, that run has a chance of ending with the current squad and the way the board are going about their business. I could be wrong of course but selling RVP after Song and Fabregas, Toure, Adebyor, Clichy and all, i think there's a chance Arsenal going in the wrong direction might speed up a bit this season??
I think we're all agreed who'll finish top 3 but a best price of 10/11 for 4th, gooners may finish 4th but i wouldn't be confident if i was on at that price. Too many owners at the club too.

Spurs i thought were more likely but i get the feeling they're relying to much on Gareth Bale in recent games, a loss to Norwich in the cup followed by a loss at home to Wigan, i see the new manager got lots of boos for taking off Defoe on Saturday too, it's a bit new and a bit uncertain at Spurs this season and i think some of the boys are missing 'arry. And i know Bale signed a new contract but i think he must be wondering about Barca, Madrid or either of the two Manchester clubs.... anyway i dont see value in 9/4 there either at present.

Everton 11/2, value? Plenty of goalscorers, not a great defence, top 6 but top 4? I dont even want to talk about them tbh.

Liverpool, well you all tell me what you see at Liverpool, obviously i'll get told i'm backing with the heart and not the head, but 9/1? We've got Luis Suarez ffs, whatever your opinion of him is he's hungry as fuck, 24 and a real desire to succeed. And you know he's been showing signs of hitting some top form lately. We've a real young hungry squad around him now and they are improving with every game, yes i know we're not scoring and winning enough at present and what if we lose Suarez to injury, but we'll dip in the market in January, all we feel we need is one other striker, not necesarliy and expensive one, just a good experienced one.
I could go on with my optimism but one other thing that's in our favour and i think it's a big factor here is there's nowhere near the same pressure on us finishing 4th as there is on Arsenal and Spurs, our owners and manager are going long term while there is added financial pressures on the other two. Having such a young squad we've lowered expectations, this will work in our favour i'm sure.

I've probably just wasted an hour chatting shit here but thats my bet for this week, i'd of probably not bothered if i'd seen 9/2 or 5/1 quoted but It's early November, were just 6pts off 4th place, and lets face it i'm not upto much on my coupon of late so i might aswell go with this

 

[Colbro]

Do you think there is any chance Liverpool will try to buy Darren Bent in January Punt

 

[Rushinrogan]

I hear yer Punter. There's no one as frustrated a myself at Arsenal's seemingly current policy of taking good players, making them great and then selling them. I think they got away with the Fabregas sale when RVP stepped up. Then they go and sell the bleeder. Once again they lose all continuity. However, i'll reserve my judgement for now.
Arsenal do what they always do and that's have an average start to the season then pick up around December. They have a good run and then blow it near the end. Arsenalwill never win the Champions league, if they keep selling.
As for the league itself, i find it does'nt really sort itself out until all the Christmas fixtures are out of the way. Thats when the injury's start taking their toll and the "surprise" teams fade away.I will wait until then
Personally, i hope Liverpool do make some sort of comeback. I was around in the 70's-80's when Liverpool were near invincible (unless you are Arsenal and need to go to Anfield and beat Liverpool by 2 goals to win the league). Don't like to see a great club struggle. I have more time for them than i do for Man City or Chelsea. Anyone else think it spoils the competition when you can go and buy a title ?

 

[Punter]

Do you think there is any chance Liverpool will try to buy Darren Bent in January Punt

My mate at work is a Villa fan Colbro and he's been saying Bent to Liverpool for nearly 18 months to me now, just last week he was saying we still owe you money for Downing and a deal might be done with him going back and Bent coming our way.
I dont know though, i cant see the swap deal, but Bent keeps being mentioned, personally i'd of been happier if it was Agbonlahor being mentioned.

(unless you are Arsenal and need to go to Anfield and beat Liverpool by 2 goals to win the league).

I remember that night well Rushin', i'd backed Liverpool to win the league and cup, in March @ 7/2 & 100/30, singles and a double, we'd already bagged the cup and i was convinced i was going get the double up for a £120 pay out , I couldn't believe it as i watched in the pub. I got arrested later that night for being drunk and disorderly, had a hundred pound fine for it a few weeks later. Michael Thomas eh.

 

[Rushinrogan]

One of the greatest days of my life that was. I was living on a Pacific Island (Yes, I've had a hard life). 7am, got me shorts on coz it's stinking hot, a dozen cold beers and settle down for the game. Everyone said it couldn't be done but i believed. After that game, i gave up the drugs and alcohol for a bit. Didn't need them as i was on a natural high for 6 months.

 

[slick]

Iiving in the pacific hey, well I can better that, I was holidaying in a leaking caravan in Rhyl and watched the game on wee 12" portable.

I was a neutral and admit to having a soft spot for Liverpool but got so embroiled in the game by the end of it I was clapping Mickey Thomas's finish, at the time it was probably the best game I had ever seen.

 

[Punter]

It was a classic end of season decider for sure. I'm going to quickly move on and try and forget about it again lol

Back to business with another Antepost Lge 2 bet...

Bradford City, £25 E.W @ 20/1, Blue Sq

It's a fucking ridiculous price still and i urge you all to have some of it.

I best keep track of how much i've got on to date...

Bradford City
£10 e.w @ 22/1 Blue Sq
£2.50 e.w @ 20/1 Hills
£5 @ 20 Betdaq
£20 e.w @ 22/1 Paddy Power
£30 double, Liverpool, Top 4 finish @ 9/1. Bradford City, promotion @ 7/2, Betvic
£25 e.w @ 20/1, Blue Sq

All e.w bets are 1/4 odds, 3 places.