Ireland - Scotland
I'm obviously biased on this one, so caveat emptor. It is a mark of how high expectations are now around Joe Schmidt and his team that (a) so many people are talking about a Grand Slam and (b) there is some dissatisfaction with how Ireland are playing. The former is probably understandable and all countries would be doing it in the same position, but it obviously has its dangers and Scotland are improving for sure. The latter is poorly informed in some quarters, but there are some issues to be concerned about - a recurrence of long-standing weakness on the wings/margins in defence, concession of late scores in games, and relatively little scoring given the percentage posession. The latter is in part down to how Ireland play, and how teams have played against them recently, but there are grounds for Scottish hope and concern for Irish supporters. However, I think Schmidt has been clever with his selections this week. There is real impact from the bench, Ringrose (if not too rusty - and he has coped well in the past in similar situations) is a very clever defender and there are key individuals - Larmour and Murphy with points to prove. Scotlands away record is abysmal, and even if they're improving overall this Irish team looks better to my eyes in most positions - particularly around the spine of 2,8,9,10,12. Scotlands scrum coped against England and Wales, but I think they could get an examination here. Scrums don't tend to settle games these days, even with the forecast poor, but they can confer a psychological and momentum advantage. Lineouts are likely to be won on throw - Irelands greater experience and possibly better individual jumpers nullified by Bests propensity to have a few leery throws. Irelands breakdown has been excellent and will continue to need to be against this outfit - they'll be helped though by having Barnes with the whistle, who unlike Owens in their last game, doesn't tend to allow much contest at the breakdown. As with most recent games I expect Irelands half-backs to ultimately settle this. My heart is more confident than my head, but I'm going with Ireland -10
France - England
France have been so shambolic in recent years, that I feel some people aren't giving them due credit for some things they're getting right in the last few months under Brunel. Ultimately its all about getting the W's, and they haven't done enough of that. They have however, only conceded 4 tries this season. England, in truth, have been fitful for the last 12-18 months, only rarely putting some impressive play together, but they have been getting the wins. That was brought to a fairly stark halt last time out, and it'll be interesting to see what sort of reaction it engenders. I suspect France will be enormously motivated for this game. Beat Les Rosbifs and the season can be considered progress (barring some calamity against Wales), but lose and it could be seen as falling further behind. I'm not convinced they can win, but they handicap does look tempting. France +8
Wales-Italy
Not sure yet about this game. Wales have disappointed a little this season, even allowing for injuries and Gatland has gambled (a little) by changing up his team for this game. They won't lose, but if they don't win handsomely, the last game against France will be tricky. As of now I'd marginally lean towards Wales to beat the cap as Italy often run out of steam this late in the tournament, and the high tempo game of Wales can trouble their defence particularly late in the game. I do see signs of Italian improvement though, so will reserve a final call till tomorrow or Sunday morning.
, just goes to show what I know lol.