Seen's place bets

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I did a similar thread on 'The Punt' a while back, results were a bit up and down but finished nicely in profit. Only rule is that the BF place price (I use BF SP to decide) is 3.0 or bigger. Not a system, just plain boring old form study, picking out horses which look a bigger price than I think they should be. Will put a brief explanation if I have the time.

Looked at Sandown today, which has been decimated by non-runners thanks to the going change.

3.50 Sand ~ TIPSY GIRL (currently 8.8) ~ looks massively overpriced to me at 40.0 / 8.8, acts well on soft and caught the eye when unlucky here on seasonal debut. A question mark over todays trip but shapes as though she will stay and big chance if she does.
3.50 Sand ~ FANTASY GLADIATOR (currently 3.5) ~ yet to win on turf but consistent and goes on soft. Hangs to the right so will be suited to them staying far side.
5.00 Sand ~ LAASHAK (currently 3.3) ~ only 3 runs, all on GF, but has a high knee action which suggests todays ground will suit and we might see a massive improvement today.

 

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All 3 unpl yesterday, keeping up the recent run of everything I tip on here/the Punt running deplorably

2.15 Sand ~ CAI SHEN (currently 3.25) ~ best ever run came with cut and had bad draw at Goodwood as an excuse last time.

 

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CAI SHEN finishes last under a woeful ride by the hopeless Paul Doe

 

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Here are the next ones destined to finish tailed off...
3.20 Sand ~ HEAVENLY DAWN (currently 3.5)
3.20 Sand ~ RAIHANA (currently 4.0)
3.20 Sand ~ THEYSKEN'S THEORY (currently 3.2)

 

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THEYSKEN'S THEORY wins, but the BF SP fails to quailfy by 3/100ths of a point (2.97). HEAVENLY DAWN was too short too and rather typically the only one which was big enough (RAIHANA) finishes 2nd last.

 

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3.55 Sand ~ LIVING IT LARGE (currently 2.44)
3.55 Sand ~ BABY STRANGE (currently 3.0)

 

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Both placed (4 to be placed on BF) but only BABY STRANGE qualified @ 3.26, so a tiny profit today.

 

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3.00 Leic ~ Sairaam (currently 10.0) ~ ideally needs further but this is a stiff 6f and she looks well drawn going off the first race. Hangs left so having rail to left will suit and likes fast ground. Worth a go win & place at these odds.

 

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Sairaam 2nd to put me in profit, will update results later.

Just the one today, and it might not qualify...

2.10 Worc ~ TALLULAH MAI (currently 2.86) ~ this looks a really weak race and at least this horse has had a run over hurdles, a fair 3rd in a better class event. Jockey is hopeless (Tom O'Brien) but should be able to reach the frame at least.

 

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TALLULAH MAI 3rd but didn't qualify (2.58).

 

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Newmarket today looks tricky, even more so with the rain changing the going.

3.30 Newm ~ REGAL PARK (currently 2.9) ~ a hard ride but consistent and acts well on easy turf. Tends to need a lot of driving so will almost certainly trade bigger in-running before staying on strongly. If the BF SP is less than 3.0 then I'll allow it as a qualifier if it hits 3.0 in-running (which looks certain), otherwise I'll use BF SP when totting up results.
3.30 Newm ~ PITTODRIE STAR (currently 6.0) ~ his 4 best turf runs have come on ground with cut in it so should go well, although does have a habit of edging left so track may not be ideal.
4.35 Newm ~ CAPAILL LIATH (currently 3.3) ~ has ran well each time he's encountered easy ground and stays 1m well which will be in his favour in this 7f event.
4.35 Newm ~ CRUISER (currently 3.3) ~ yet another who likes cut and also stays 1m well. 10f was a step too far last time and no reason why he shouldn't be thereabouts.

 

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4.00 Newm ~ NORTHSIDE PRINCE (currently 3.4)
4.00 Newm ~ MCBIRNEY (currently 3.8)
4.00 Newm ~ QUSHCHI (currently 3.3)

 

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QUSHCHI 2nd, other 2 unpl. Will try and get these results updated tonight.

4.35 Newm ~ MISS DIAGNOSIS (currently 3.5) ~ failed to handle Goodwood last time, has a good draw to grab the fence early and should go close provided she gets the breaks trying to come from the back.

 

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Forgot about this thread - I'll copy it over to Horsenap and continue it there.