Spain betting 14-16 October

[rcgills]

Villarreal B v Girona over 2.5 goals @ 2.1 (Paddy Power) 3pts

Come unstuck a bit recently with my last couple of confident overs bets, but this is another one with all the makings of a goalfest. Villarreal B's 3 home games have finished 3-4, 3-3 and 3-2, and the fact they even conceded 2 to Nastic (who have only managed a further 2 goals in their other 6 games combined) doesn't say much for their defence.

Girona are conceding at very nearly 2 a game (13 in 7), but they've scored 10 themselves.

Only downside to this is that Villarreal B's top scorer Joselu (6 goals) is expected to be called up to the first team (to be confirmed in the morning), although that's not 100% definite

 

[fc basher]

Sod it I werent on

But good call again rc clap

 

[ONEDUNME]

Missed the bastard

 

[rcgills]

Missed the bastard

I've missed you too, you twat

 

[rcgills]

Having computer problems this afternoon and so have no time to go into any detail here, but:

Numancia v Almeria (-0.5) @ 2.85 (Bet365) 2pts (price is marginally better on the -.5 handicap than it is on the normal 1X2 market)

 

[rcgills]

Couple from Segunda B for tomorrow:

Albacete to score over 1.5 goals away to Celta B @ 2.4 (Sporting Odds) 2pts

This one looks to have plenty of goals in it - Celta B have scored 9 and conceded 10 in 4 home games so far this season, while Albacete have scored 7 conceded 5 in their 4 aways. Both teams have scored and conceded in all of their respective home/away games.

Albacete rightly (IMO) marginal favourites to win this, and if they're going to win, given their defence isn't particularly solid, they may well need to score more than once. With Celta B having the worst defence in the division (20 conceded in 8 games overall), Albacete should have plenty of chances to get the 2 goals.

Almeria B v Sevilla B @ 3.75 (Paddy Power) 2pts

Just think this price looks way too big on the visitors. Both teams have started fairly inconsistently, both sitting mid-table (Almeria 8th, Sevilla 10th), but there are signs Sevilla B may be turning the corner after thrashing Roquetas 7-2 last week. Admittedly Roquetas are bottom, but they had only conceded 6 in 7 games prior to that.

Almeria B's home record is nothing special - a win against the team in 15th, two 0-0 draws with the teams in 18th and 19th (out of 20), and a defeat to the team in 9th. Sevilla B yet to win away, 2 draws and 2 defeats, but there seems to be confidence that performances are improving, and I'm happy enough to take a chance on them at this price.

 

[rcgills]

Forgot to mention yesterday, those 2 kick off at midday and 11.30am respectively (Spanish time)

 

[rcgills]

One more, this one a 5pm kickoff:

Leganes v Getafe B (DNB) @ 2.7 (Sporting Odds) 3pts

Another one here where the price on the visitors looks much too generous. 13th v 6th, Leganes haven't won since the opening day of the season. Since then they've managed 5 draws and 2 defeats. At home they've managed a win and 2 draws against the teams 14th, 15th and 16th, and lost to 5th placed Albacete.

Getafe B have hit a nice little run of form with 3 straight wins. Away from home they've had 2 heavy defeats to La Roda and Real Madrid B (3rd and 4th) and a draw at Coruxo (18th), but their last away game saw an impressive 3-1 win at 8th placed Rayo Vallecano B.

Leganes are odds-on favourites for this one, really can't see how that's justified when they've only won once in 8 attempts this season, value definitely with the visitors.

 

[ONEDUNME]

Just a lay of the home side at around evens for me. Missed the rest but good luck RC

 

[rcgills]

Cheers ODM, fingers crossed. One winner (Albacete won 2-0) and one loser (Sevilla B drew 1-1) from this morning.