Spain betting 22-23 October

[rcgills]

No time to go into much detail tonight, but a few fantastic looking long shots for tomorrow:

Lay Real Madrid at Malaga @ 1.43 (Betfair) liability 2pts

Madrid have already come unstuck a couple of times away from home, losing at Levante and drawing in Santander. Malaga and their millions should give them a tough test. Also a bit of a grudge match since last season when Mourinho, asked what the difference was between him and Pellegrini, replied that "If Madrid sacked me, I wouldn't go and manage Malaga, I'd go to a big team in England or Italy"

Cordoba tb Deportivo La Coruña @ 3.15 (Betfair) 2pts

Cordoba 2pts and 2 places above Depor, and playing some nice stuff this season so far, unbeaten in 6 (4-2-0).

Deportivo have put in a couple of awful performances in their last 2 aways, losing 2-0 in Alcoyano and 4-0 in Alcorcon.

Celta v Huesca @ 6.4 (Betfair) 2pts

Price looks huge in this one to me. Celta considered one of the favourites for promotion, but struggling badly at home - 1pt from 3 home games so far. They also won more points away from home than they did at home last season.

The two teams have met 4 times in total in Vigo, once in the 1980s (won by Celta), and then in each of the last three seasons. Those last three meetings have all been won by Huesca.

Huesca's away form is nothing to write home about, but against a side that struggles at home, and on a ground where they've had considerable recent success, that 6.4 looks massive.

 

[Punter]

I've followed you with these Rc, betdaq though..

Layed Madrid @ 1.44
Backed Huesca, only got 5.8 though
Waiting for a better price on Cordoba

Small stakes.

 

[ONEDUNME]

I've joined you too but to be honest Im so pissed I can hardly read my notes..

Cordoba DNB
Huesca Asian 0.75
Malaga at something on the asian hcap but with absolutely no confidence whatsoever of a return

 

[rcgills]

Malaga at something on the asian hcap but with absolutely no confidence whatsoever of a return

Bah, where's Kriss Akabusi and his PMA when you need him.

Both Segunda bets comfortable losers, still, a win or draw for Malaga would still lead to a profit for the day.

 

[fc basher]

They got Sevilla +2.5 ah odds 1.975 bet365, gone 5pts. Sevilla have to lose by three for the bet to go down.

 

[swooperman]

I'm with you on that Bash, but this would have lost in the last 3 Barca home games & The last 3 seasons in this fixture
....but my moneys on

 

[rcgills]

Mine's not, for the reasons Swoop gives, but the way today's gone so far, that's probably good news for you two

Good luck

 

[rcgills]

Ended up having a little interest on 1st goal before 22:00 and over 1.5 goals 1st half - there's a full midweek programme, so reckon Barcelona may well be looking to get this one under control early on so they can ease up a bit in the 2nd half.

 

[Colbro]

Javi Varas - yet another great Spanish goalkeeper better than anything England can produce.

 

[rcgills]

Certainly had a good game tonight, Colbro, and has been having a good season overall, but that's only 8 games, and he hadn't really stood out prior to this season, think it's a bit early to be adding him to the list of great Spanish keepers. You're right though, it's depressing the number of Spanish keepers better than anything England has to offer (and that's without counting Javi Varas).

Only one bet for me for tomorrow, in Segunda B group 1:

Alcala tb La Roda @ 2.625 (Bet365) 3pts (midday kickoff)

La Roda missing three first team defenders to injury, plus have another defender who suffered blurred vision after a blow to the face during the week, although he has been named in the squad for tomorrow. They've also had an outbreak of flu this week which has affected some of their players, although it hasn't prevented anyone from being named in the squad.

Alcala changed managers after failing to win in their first 6 games (conceding 13 goals in the process). Since that change, they've won 2 drawn 1, and conceded just 1 goal in those 3 games.

There's a direct point of comparison for the form of the two sides, as both have played away to Marino Luanco in the last 2 weeks - La Roda lost 3-0, while Alcala beat them 1-0.

 

[ONEDUNME]

Alcala tb La Roda @ 2.625 (Bet365) 3pts (midday kickoff)

.

Gone for the DNB option mate at around 5/6.

I had a bloody good gambling day yesterday so I'm having a cautious day today in an effort not to give them any back.

 

[rcgills]

Sounds a wise move. Bet365 have just put the in-play market up as it's about to kick off, Alcala now priced at 1.95

 

[Punter]

Good luck today Rc, i caught you on a wrong day yesterday... i have that effect on people lately, soz

 

[rcgills]

Wrong weekend by the looks of it, Punter, as Alcala finished 0-0 too (played against 10 men for the last 10 mins as well)

 

[ONEDUNME]

Even the best have to have off days RC. We'll get it back next week.

 

[rcgills]

Next week? We'll start this afternoon (and there's a full midweek programme too):

Linense to score 2 or more away to Poli Ejido @ 2.15 (Sporting Odds) 3pts (game in Segunda B group 4)

Had vaguely looked at Linense to win this one anyway, but was originally put off by the price which seemed a bit too short for my liking. However, just been scanning through some news sites and found that Poli Ejido are missing 4 first teamers for this one (2 defenders, 2 midfielders).

Linense are 3rd, Ejido 3rd from bottom. Linense have won 3 of their 4 away games so far, scoring 10 goals in those 3 wins against the teams currently 9th, 10th and 17th (the 4th game was a 4-0 defeat to the side currently 4th), so they're pretty prolific scorers, but have also conceded 6 in 4 away from home.

Ejido at home are 1-1-2, with the most recent game a 2-1 loss to the team in 16th. They've scored in 3 of those 4 home games, and that together with the goals conceded by Linense is what sends me towards the over 1.5 goals scored for Linense rather than the Linense win. The prices are pretty much the same (you can get 2.2 on the Linense win), but as I suspect they're going to need to score twice in order to win anyway, I'd rather back them to score twice and cover the chance of a high-scoring draw or even defeat.

Kick off at 5pm Spanish time

 

[ONEDUNME]

On it mate

 

[rcgills]

as I suspect they're going to need to score twice in order to win anyway, I'd rather back them to score twice and cover the chance of a high-scoring draw or even defeat.

Of course, the alternative is that they well and truly fuck you over by winning 1-0 Rounds off a pretty miserable weekend really.