Spain betting 23-26 September

[rcgills]

Nastic v Huesca (DNB) @ 2.75 (Stan James) 3pts
Huesca to score 2 or more @ 4 (Sporting Odds) 1.5pts

Nastic will have trouble putting together a defence this weekend. To quote the Diari de Tarragona (http://www.diaridetarragona.com/esports/059815/dilema/defensivo), they've got 7 defenders - 3 right backs, 2 left backs and 2 central defenders. Of those 7, only 4 are available for this weekend, and 3 of them are right backs

They're also missing 3 first teamers in midfield, although two of them have missed near enough the whole season so far.

Nastic so far have looked reasonably solid so far away from home, with two 0-0 draws (although a weakened side did also lose 6-0 to Valladolid in the cup), but they've lost both home games, 0-3 to Valladolid and 1-3 to Las Palmas, leading one of their players to comment this week in a press conference that at home "we're our own worst enemy".

Huesca in poor form themselves, with just 1pt from their first 4 games, but they've at least shown they've got goals in them, it's their defence that is the problem (scored 5 conceded 10), whereas Nastic have a weak defence (weakened even further this weekend by injuries), but have only managed to score 1 goal in their 4 league games so far.

 

[rcgills]

Sabadell v Hercules (0 a/h) @ 2.05 (Bet365) 4pts

3rd v 2nd here, both sides with 9pts from a possible 12, but personally I think Sabadell are in a false position. They've certainly been extremely entertaining to watch (averaging 4.5 goals per game), but their three wins have all come against poor to average sides - Huesca, Cartagena and Villarreal B. The first time they came up against a decent side (last weekend v Deportivo) they were beaten 2-1. Reports say they played pretty well, but were maybe a bit naive and were made to pay for that by a more experienced side.

Contrast that with Hercules, who have beaten two of the tougher sides in the division, Barcelona B (coming from behind with 10 men) and Deportivo, plus Cartagena too.

If Sabadell try to play this game the way they've played the others, going all out for the 3pts then I'd expect them to come unstuck. Hercules have a solid defence (2 conceded in 4 games), and they'll take advantage of any weaknesses Sabadell have at the other end (8 goals conceded in 4 games suggests there may be a few weaknesses).

Much like the Linense v Cadiz game last weekend, this is a newly promoted team off to a flying start, up against one of the biggest sides in the division, and like last week, I don't think the visitors would have been anywhere near this price if this had been the opening game of the season.

 

[Rob44]

i don't pretend to know anything about spanish football other than don't bet against barca, but i have a bet this weekend from a recommendation from a friend - it's Levante home win @2.2 against espanyol. simple reasoning is excellent recent home record vs lousy recent away record - good luck on yours RC.

 

[MickeyPaul]

i don't pretend to know anything about spanish football

Ooooh, like rcgills you mean? Very subtle! Only joking. Home record vs away record is usually where I start, Rob so sounds interesting.

 

[rcgills]

No time to go into any detail, but going against Mallorca today (midday kickoff) for much the same reasons as last week.

Mallorca v Real Sociedad (0 hcp) @ 2.375 (Bet365) 3pts

 

[rcgills]

Nice call on Levante, Rob