Spain betting 29-31 October

[rcgills]

Right, hopefully a better week after the complete write-off last week:

Hercules to win to nil v Cordoba @ 2.8 (Bet365) 2pts

Hercules have won 8 of their 10 games so far, conceding just 4 goals in the process. They've won to nil in 3 of their 5 homes so far.

Cordoba won midweek to end a run of 3 games without a win, but they struggle for goals, just 8 in 10 games, and the scorer of 3 of those goals, Charles, is out suspended tomorrow.

Recreativo Huelva v Numancia @ 3.8 (Bet365) 2pts

Neither team has been in particularly good form in recent weeks, but much better signs of potential improvements from Numancia. Recreativo (18th) have just 2pts from their last 5 games, and have lost 3 of their 5 home games already this season.

Numancia (14th) have just 2pts from 5 away games this season, although they have had some tough games. They do however come into this match on a high having thrashed 3rd placed (at the time, although they dropped to 7th as a result) Guadalajara 4-0.

See no reason why the visitors should be such big outsiders in this one.

And one early one for Sunday:

Osasuna to score 2+ v Levante @ 2.5 (Sporting Odds) 3pts
To score 3+ @ 6.5 (Sporting Odds) 1pt

Not taking anything away from Levante, as they've made an absolutely superb start, thoroughly unexpected and they're sitting top of the table at the moment. However, I've a feeling they're going to come unstuck this weekend, with tiredness potentially a factor.

The average age of the Levante team is just under 32. Last Sunday the side they put out at Villarreal was apparently the oldest in La Liga history with a combined age of 346. The combined age of their keeper and back 4 is 170 . Plenty of experience there, for sure, but 3 games in 8 days is a big ask for players like that.

Osasuna are fairly prolific scorers at home, with 7 in 4 games, failing to score only against Sevilla, putting 2 past Mallorca and Sporting, and then 3 past Zaragoza last weekend.

 

[ONEDUNME]

Gone for a sort of made up draw no bet type affair on Sunday's game by backing Osasuna at 6/4 with a saver on the draw (think I've got that right RC, although your bolding seems to suggest the bet is Levante but the right up doesn't) and backed Numancia on the Asian handicap 0.25 at evens with VC.

Like yourself, not a big fan of odds on football bets but I've gone with the straight win for Hercules. Stan james the only 8/11 left out there

 

[rcgills]

think I've got that right RC, although your bolding seems to suggest the bet is Levante but the right up doesn't

Now admittedly the bold might have been slightly better placed on Osasuna to score 2+ rather than to score 2+ v Levante, but I can't really see how "Osasuna to score 2+ v Levante @ 2.5" suggests the bet is Levante

Not that I'd argue with your bet, mind, as I do think Osasuna will win.

 

[rcgills]

Two for tomorrow, both in the same game:

Lucena tb Puertollano (Segunda B group 4) @ 1.75 (Sporting Odds) 4pts
Lucena -1 (European handicap) @ 3.1 (Sporting Odds) 2pts

2nd v 7th. Lucena have won 4 of their 5 home games, 3 of them by 2 or more goals. Puertollano won their first away game against San Roque (5th), but haven't won away since, getting draws at the teams in 17th and 19th, and losing (both times by a 2-goal margin) to the teams 3rd and 6th. On that basis alone, you'd have Lucena as pretty strong favourites, but the team news and background situation makes the price look even better.

Puertollano in trouble both on and off the field ahead of this match. The board of directors resigned a couple of weeks ago as they didn't consider the club's future viable, the deadline for interested parties to come forward was Thursday, and there was no interest. There were reports at first that the players may not turn out for this game, but they will play, although they're due to decide after this game on what action they'll take, which may involve not playing next week.

On the pitch, they're missing several key players for this one, although there are conflicting reports regarding one player. Two of their first choice back 4 are definitely missing through injury (centre back and right back, both played 9 of the 10 matches so far), while one of their forwards (played a part in all 10 games, although only started 3) is suspended. The conflicting reports concern their 2nd top scorer (3 goals in 8 starts), I've seen one report (from Puertollano's local paper) say he's definitely out, and one (from Lucena's local paper) say he should start. Would have thought Puertollano's local paper would be more likely to know, but then knowing how amateur the local press can sometimes be, who knows

In addition to those absences, they've also got 2 more first teamers who have been struggling with injury, although both are expected to play, a left back and a central midfielder (both played 9 of 10 games).

Lucena, on the other hand, are at full strength.

Midday KO, and should be in-running on Bet365

 

[rcgills]

One more, bet of a speculative one:

Lugo v Coruxo @ 7 (Bet365) 1pt (Segunda B group 1)

Lugo 4pts clear at the top and unbeaten so far this season, Coruxo down in 9th with 13pts from 10 games, although they're on a run of 3 straight wins.

Have just been reading though that Lugo have been hit by a severe stomach bug. 7 players have been badly hit, several others have also had it although with milder symptoms, and some of the coaching staff too. In total only 7 players haven't been affected so far.

Lugo have requested a postponement, and a decision is due to be made this morning. Worth a speculative shot on this one, if it's called off the bet will be voided anyway, but if they're forced to play with players still suffering the effects of the bug, then Coruxo certainly won't be a 6/1 shot.

 

[Wayne]

Lucena tb Puertollano (Segunda B group 4) @ 1.75 (Sporting Odds) 4pts
Lucena -1 (European handicap) @ 3.1 (Sporting Odds) 2pts

Looks good to me rc plus the price has been coming in all morning.
I'm on Lucena AH-1.

 

[Wayne]

 

[Wayne]

2-0 down with 20 mins to go and they've just scored 3 times in 6 minutes!

Mental.

One more please - I thank you.

 

[Wayne]

One more please - I thank you.

And with a couple of minutes, there it is.
In the wrong fucking net.

Finished 3-3.

 

[rcgills]

Certainly looked a strange game, will have to look for a write up later ​

The Lugo v Coruxo game has been called off, so that one's void​

 

[ThunderCelt]

Based on stats, Sevilla to beat Grenada to nil at 13/10 (Unibet) looks inviting. 5th plays bottom, so I assume Seville will be heavy favourites. They concede less than a goal a game, and Grenada have only scored two all season, and none away. Minimal stakes as I don't know the league - unless anyone can convince me it's either a paticularly good or bad shout.

 

[rcgills]

Based on stats, Sevilla to beat Grenada to nil at 13/10 (Unibet) looks inviting. 5th plays bottom, so I assume Seville will be heavy favourites. They concede less than a goal a game, and Grenada have only scored two all season, and none away. Minimal stakes as I don't know the league - unless anyone can convince me it's either a paticularly good or bad shout.

Based on stats I certainly wouldn't try to put you off that one, ThunderCelt. I've actually gone with both sides to score myself, but that's based purely on gut instinct, it's not one I could possibly attempt to justify in any other way.

The only slight argument you could make in favour of both to score would be that this is Sevilla's third consecutive home game against the bottom side (Sporting and Racing were both bottom when they played Sevilla), and Sevilla have conceded in both of them (and in fact only managed a draw against Racing), although neither Racing nor Sporting are as goal-shy as Granada.

Worth mentioning as well that this is an Andalucia derby.

For what it's worth, also had a tiny nibble for interest on Diego Mainz of Granada for first and anytime scorer @ 51 and 19.

 

[ThunderCelt]

Thanks for the context. maybe I'll skip it.