In the unusual position of having all bets paid for including the credit bets, which means I only need my beer money and the odd tenner to throw at the daft h/caps, x country races after my 6th pint. They can all go down the pan with no real concerns, unless a statement comes through the door in 14 days times with a trade I completely forgot about. Kept the ante post bets sensible, but boring, but don’t seem to have any non runners as yet. My bets this year seem to be revolving around many of the headline horses, so if Henderson bombs, so do I, which led me to looking at an insurance option. Henderson can be layed @ 1.82 to have more than 3 winners . It may be worth looking at although there are races were he could get the wrong winner in my case (i.e. Long Run) hitting the win and insurance bets.
Last year I was taking on the Irish/French breds mainly in the place markets, which worked out well, so I will repeat that strategy mainly on the final two days. Samoan may have an idea, but there is no market yet on leading sire yet. King’s Theatre (officially Irish bred, but flat bred) is my only thought but I’d have no idea of price. He’s got no bankers and Cue card and Wishful Thinking would kill my bets in the Arkle.
Winning Distance 95-120 3 pts @ 6/4 (Skybet )
95-125 2 pts @ TBC/2.6”ish” (Betfair)
Unless someone can put up a case against this, it looks like a bit of a no brainer. I was actually looking to get a decent bet on less than 120 and got quoted 2/1 over the phone, so I quoted my bet and was offered 25% on my stake, FFS.
2011: 112.75 (27)
2010: 94.7 (26)
2009: 118.75. (26)
2008: 113.0 (25)
27 races this year, no heavy ground unless we get the dreaded over watering in certain parts of the course. I’m probably missing something and I accept it’s a very small sample with only one meeting with 27 races but I do think the price is fair.
Supreme Novice 1.30 Darlan 3 pts win @ 12/1 (No trade off yet)
From earlier post :
Main bet for me will be in the Supreme with Darlan (12/1 Corals). Will probably add one or two others come the day, but I'm happy to take on the Irish contingent who have all won with ease but all slowly run affairs on bad ground. As usual, the watering is already under way so there will be "soft" in the going description but the ground will ride faster than most of these have encountere
d.
I’m a firm believer in the Betfair hurdle form, so with bets on the above, Zarkandar and GMOOH, it could be an expensive view.
Like years gone by, my knowledge of the Irish horse is zilch, but even with the watering in place, this ground will ride faster than what most of the overseas runners have encountered recently.
Some will no doubt benefit from the better ground, but I’m going to just stick with the one bet. I did consider savers on Sous Les Cieux (34.00 and Felix Younger (45.0), but they look likely to run on Wednesday. I’m happy with my pick and just need to decide a trading out price.
The current lay price is 6.1 which is too high for me trade for a free bet for a profit of 20.4pts. I’m going to try and get out pre race at 5.0.
Date
Track
Winner
Odds
Trainer
Age
Weight
OR
Jockey
Going
Distance
15.03.2011
Cheltenham
Al Ferof (FR)
10/1
Nicholls, P F
6
11-7
142
Walsh, R
Good
2m½f
16.03.2010
Cheltenham
Menorah (IRE)
12/1
Hobbs, P J
5
11-7
147
Johnson, Richard
Good To Soft
2m½f
10.03.2009
Cheltenham
Go Native (IRE)
12/1
Meade, Noel
6
11-7
139
Carberry, P
Good To Soft
2m½f
11.03.2008
Cheltenham
Captain Cee Bee (IRE)
17/2
Harty, Edward P
7
11-7
142
Thornton, Robert
Good To Soft
2m½f
13.03.2007
Cheltenham
Ebaziyan (IRE)
40/1
Mullins, W P
6
11-7
0
Condon, D J
Soft
2m½f
14.03.2006
Cheltenham
Noland
6/1
Nicholls, P F
5
11-7
138
Walsh, R
Good To Soft
2m½f
15.03.2005
Cheltenham
Arcalis
20/1
Johnson, J Howard
5
11-7
136
Lee, G
Good
2m½f
16.03.2004
Cheltenham
Brave Inca (IRE)
7/2
Murphy, C A
6
11-7
0
Cash, B M
Good
2m½f
11.03.2003
Cheltenham
Back In Front (IRE)
3/1
OGrady, E J
6
11-8
0
Williamson, N
Good
2m½f
12.03.2002
Cheltenham
Like-A-Butterfly (IRE)
7/4
Roche, C
8
11-3
0
Swan, C F
Good To Soft
2m½f
14.03.2000
Cheltenham
Sausalito Bay
14/1
Meade, Noel
6
11-8
0
Carberry, P
Good
2m½f
16.03.1999
Cheltenham
Hors La Loi Iii (FR)
9/2
Pipe, M C
4
11-0
0
McCoy, A P
Good To Soft
2m½f
17.03.1998
Cheltenham
French Ballerina (IRE)
10/1
Flynn, Patrick J
5
11-3
0
Bradley, G
Good To Soft
2m½f
11.03.1997
Cheltenham
Shadow Leader
5/1
Egerton, C R
6
11-8
0
Osborne, J
Good
2m½f
The Arkle 2.05 Sprinter Sacre 3 pts win @ average 5/2
Al Ferof 1 pt win @ 6/1
My cautious approach means I did miss the decent prices on offer for these two. I was convinced for weeks that AF would be rerouted to the Champion at some stage, even though he’s done little wrong, but I strangely think thought he would have a stronger chance back over hurdles. Paddy Power seem to think SS will repeat last years failure to get up the hill. Problem with their offer is they are bottom price 9/4 against the exchange 7/2 on offer for Al Ferof.
Their prices for the rest of the field are in line and it’s a decent offer, if your horse does finish 2nd to SS.
It’s a simple case of how much of a factor the final 2f will be between the top two in the market, barring mishaps. SS’s style of jumping means he will go down if he clouts one, whereas Al Ferof will stalk, if that’s possible.
The relatively small field size should hopefully help SS’s cause with regard to pace burn out. He has been very impressive this season and looks a potential star.
Al Ferof is another fav of mine, when winning last year’s Supreme. It’s worth remembering he traded as big as 70.0 In running in that race and I do think he will trade bigger in running if the main contenders are still in the field. A literal interpretation of last year’s Supreme was superior to Hurricane Fly’s Champion win, so emphasises what a race we have on.
It’s one of those markets were I couldn’t be on SS at the current price and I do think he will drift a touch on the day. Cue Card is a decent price on the ex’s @ 9/1, as he closely matched with AF, goes well at the track and has less miles on the clock than I perceived for the one time superstar.
Although Menorah has the beating of Cue Card on hurdles form, his chase form looks inferior.
Date
Track
Winner
Odds
Trainer
Age
Weight
OR
Jockey
Going
Distance
15.03.2011
Cheltenham
Captain Chris (IRE)
6/1
Hobbs, P J
7
11-7
153
Johnson, Richard
Good
2m
16.03.2010
Cheltenham
Sizing Europe (IRE)
6/1
Bromhead, Henry De
8
11-7
157
Lynch, A E
Good To Soft
2m
10.03.2009
Cheltenham
Forpadydeplasterer (IRE)
8/1
Cooper, Thomas
7
11-7
152
Geraghty, B J
Good To Soft
2m
11.03.2008
Cheltenham
Tidal Bay (IRE)
6/1
Johnson, J Howard
7
11-7
154
ORegan, Denis
Good To Soft
2m
13.03.2007
Cheltenham
My Way De Solzen (FR)
7/2
King, A
7
11-7
0
Thornton, Robert
Soft
2m
14.03.2006
Cheltenham
Voy Por Ustedes (FR)
15/2
King, A
5
11-2
0
Thornton, Robert
Good To Soft
2m
15.03.2005
Cheltenham
Contraband
7/1
Pipe, M C
7
11-7
147
Murphy, Timmy
Good
2m
16.03.2004
Cheltenham
Well Chief (GER)
9/1
Pipe, M C
5
11-3
0
McCoy, A P
Good
2m
11.03.2003
Cheltenham
Azertyuiop (FR)
5/4
Nicholls, P F
6
11-8
0
Walsh, R
Good
2m
12.03.2002
Cheltenham
Moscow Flyer (IRE)
11/2
Harrington, Mrs John
8
11-8
0
Geraghty, B J
Good To Soft
2m
14.03.2000
Cheltenham
Tiutchev
8/1
Henderson, N J
7
11-8
0
Fitzgerald, Mick
Good
2m
16.03.1999
Cheltenham
Flagship Uberalles (IRE)
11/1
Nicholls, P F
5
11-0
0
Tizzard, Joe
Good To Soft
2m
17.03.1998
Cheltenham
Champleve (FR)
13/2
Pipe, M C
5
11-0
0
McCoy, A P
Good To Soft
2m
11.03.1997
Cheltenham
Or Royal (FR)
11/2
Pipe, M C
6
11-8
0
McCoy, A P
Good
2m
Festival Handicap 2.40. Divers @ 33/1 NRNB.
Clueless to what will run, so will check what is posted up here on the day for inspiration. If my pick is a n/r , I will have a look at the William’s/ Murphy entries, for small bets.
Champion Hurdle 3.20 Binocular 3 pts win @ 8/1
Zarkandar 2 pts win @ ave 9/1
Hurricane Fly trade. 3pts In @ 2.82, out @ 1.85 ( Potential profit 2.8 pts)
Current champion HF is a horse I really want to take on. Won 7 on the bounce, generally with ease, but nothing tells me this should be an odds on shot.
I accept that he may improve if he does not pull like he did in last years race, but looking back at that race, it looks dire. Peddlars Cross appears over rated on OR figures and looks a stayer. I can’t find much to say about the rest. I mentioned earlier about Al Ferof’s performance, earlier that day being superior, accepting it was run at a better pace.
His Irish form is riddled with wins over Solwhit, who was trounced by Binocular by 16lths ( excuses given).
Binocular’s CH win also looks weak with the passing of time but he has put in a series of sound runs and looks to be a better performer in decent field sizes. Significantly he seems the back to his form of his 2010 win.
Mentioned Zarkandar several times, so will keep it brief but i still think he’s capable of finding a stones improvement. Was going to be my only bet in the race but the more I looked at Binocular, who was a regular lay for me in small fields ( Fighting Fith), the more I realised he was a great price.
Overturn looks a possible trading horse at big odds on the ex’s. I could never understand why he never gave the horse a break last winter, when McCain kept saying he was going to have a well earned break, only to go pot hunting.
He has actually been given a rest, which I always think is a benefit for these front runners. Although well held on form, he might try and get these stretched enough, running fresh and make the layers squeal.
Date
Track
Winner
Odds
Trainer
Age
Weight
OR
Jockey
Going
Distance
15.03.2011
Cheltenham
Hurricane Fly (IRE)
11/4
Mullins, W P
7
11-10
167
Walsh, R
Good
2m½f
16.03.2010
Cheltenham
Binocular (FR)
9/1
Henderson, N J
6
11-10
163
McCoy, A P
Good To Soft
2m½f
10.03.2009
Cheltenham
Punjabi
22/1
Henderson, N J
6
11-10
163
Geraghty, B J
Good To Soft
2m½f
11.03.2008
Cheltenham
Katchit (IRE)
10/1
King, A
5
11-10
159
Thornton, Robert
Good To Soft
2m½f
13.03.2007
Cheltenham
Sublimity (FR)
16/1
Carr, John G
7
11-10
0
Carberry, P A
Soft
2m½f
14.03.2006
Cheltenham
Brave Inca (IRE)
7/4
Murphy, C A
8
11-10
0
McCoy, A P
Good To Soft
2m½f
15.03.2005
Cheltenham
Hardy Eustace (IRE)
7/2
Hughes, D T
8
11-10
0
ODwyer, C
Good
2m½f
16.03.2004
Cheltenham
Hardy Eustace (IRE)
33/1
Hughes, D T
7
11-10
0
ODwyer, C
Good
2m½f
11.03.2003
Cheltenham
Rooster Booster
9/2
Hobbs, P J
9
12-0
167
Johnson, Richard
Good
2m½f
12.03.2002
Cheltenham
Hors La Loi Iii (FR)
10/1
Fanshawe, J R
7
12-0
153
Gallagher, D
Good To Soft
2m½f
14.03.2000
Cheltenham
Istabraq (IRE)
8/15
OBrien, A P
8
12-0
0
Swan, C F
Good
2m½f
16.03.1999
Cheltenham
Istabraq (IRE)
4/9
OBrien, A P
7
12-0
0
Swan, C F
Good To Soft
2m½f
17.03.1998
Cheltenham
Istabraq (IRE)
3/1
OBrien, A P
6
12-0
0
Swan, C F
Good To Soft
2m½f
11.03.1997
Cheltenham
Make A Stand
7/1
Pipe, M C
6
12-0
0
McCoy, A P
Good
2m½f
Cross Country Chase 4.00. No bets ( Get the ale in)
Mares Hurdle 4.40 No bets ( Get the ale in)
5.15 2.5 mile Handicap Chase.
Hunt Ball .5 pt win @8/1NRNB
Carrickhillboy .5pt win @ 14/1 NRNB.
Another race were they may run elsewhere, but lazy picks to give me an interest, if still awake, as I will need a kip to watch the Liverpool/ Everton game.
Good luck.
