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ONEDUNME

ONEDUNME

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....but enough about that, it's time to put it away and pick some horses.

Anyone who's seen my recent posts will know that I'm picking winners more often than Komp picks his arse and the absence of our regular forum has meant that you poor suckers chaps have missed out on the latest ones.

My horses have been running faster than Usain Bolt with the shits and I see no obvious reason for this winning streak to continue so you're welcome to hop aboard but please be warned that past success is no guarantee of future success, shares can go down as well as up and your house is at risk if you decide to lump on my selections only to find that God has decided that I've had more luck than the average sinner should actually be entitled to.

In other words, don't come whining to me if the missis kicks you out for losing the mortgage money because you'll get my standard response which is "Admit it, you were a tosser before you found me. The missis was thinking about kicking you out anyway - she was just waiting for an excuse (and, by the way, did you know that she's banging some bloke she met at the gym?).

Anyway, eyes down,look in, tune in, drop out and get down on it as you now enter.............The Twilight Zone.................
 
You'll have to forgive me if you're a seasoned Punter who already has their own particular way of losing money but I thought I'd give a few punting tips to any new horse racing punters out there. A little insight, if you like, into how a punting genius (I was going to put Punting God but I thought that might sound a tad conceited) picks his horses.

Let's go for a little walk (ahuhu) under the moon of love.....
 
There are many reasons why I back a particular horse. I may have been impressed by its last run, I might think that the weight it's carrying today gives it a very good chance compared to its opponents or the ground will be more to its liking than the others. I may feel that the hype around a particular horse has made its price shorter than it should be (believe me, that one has cost me a few bob in the past:cry) or it may be that I backed it last time out and it either won or it didn't win and I see this as a possibility to turn my previous losses into a profit.

There are a million reasons(nearly) and I can't list them all. However, if you're new to the game, here are a few pointers that you might like to consider.

Tell me more, tell me more, did you get very far?
 
There are people who know more about form, weights, breeding, trends and speed figures than I will ever know. If you're a beginner though, you can pick bits and bobs up along the way. Be warned that all of the above may well be built into the pice that you're getting and when some TV chappy tells you that a certain horse is drifting out 3 points in price because it's just started raining, don't be overly surprised when it jogs in ten lengths clear of the field.

My advice would be to get yourself a racing paper (or onto the racingpost or sportinglife website) and fire oddschecker up on your comp.
 
Click on "Horseracing" and then "Racing Coupon"

You'll see that the first race today is a 12 runner handicap race. The fact that the shortest price horse is available at between 9/2 and 6/1 (although judging by the prices it looks like a couple of horses may be being taken out. In any event, this is a shit race for a beginner to be betting on. Five horses at 7/1 and under? It's a lottery - Leave it alone.

Likewise, the next is a ten runner handicap with the fav being 7/2. The outsider of the lot is availabel at as short as 12/1 which again tells us that this is an open race and one for the beginner to avoid.

Time after time I see people who are at the races for the day out, lump on the fav in one of these races and are amazed when a horse beats it at 10/1. Its not difficult to work out why really. It's a lottery and anything could win. Backing the favourite time after time on the basis that "the bookies don't get it wrong very often" is a shortcut to the poor house.
 
The next race on the card (145 Haydock) at least gives the novice punter a fighting chance of picking the winner. Apart from the fact that this race has less runners than the first two (six) the fact that it's not a handicap should, in theory, mean that we should be able to discount the outsiders. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT ONE OF THEM WON'T POP UP AND WIN. The law of averages says that if this race was ran a dozen times, there is a chance that events would unwind in such a way that one of the two outsiders would win.

So I'm discounting the two outsiders and that leaves me with four to choose from. I wouldn't put anyone off the favourite but if you're going to back it you'd better get on it now at Ladbrokes at evens because the rest have gone odds on.

Don't be scared to take on odds on shots!

Many of them will win but if you get enough live ones at the right prices you will make a profit by taking them on. It's often a good idea to lay horses around the even mark over fences (fences, not hurdles) rather than back the second or third fav because even the best horses can make mistakes one mistake and fall or hit a fence so hard that it ruins its race.

In this particular instance, you will notice that three of the top four in the betting have won their last race. I've already decided that evens or 10/11 is not a tempting price for the favourite so I'm now looking at Last Bid 3/1 ish Signifer 7/1 ish and Guru Girl 8/1 ish.

At this stage, i should fire up my sportinglife/racingpost and look at each of these horses' recent runs, what the ground was like, what the class of the race was, what time the race was completed at but time is short and my attention has already been caught by Mick Channon's horse Signifer and for reasons that regular punters might find bizzare. The reasons are that i can't see any reason why that horse should be so short in price. It's not as if it has performed well on this going or distance recently but Channon's horses have been running pretty well lately (wihout winning too many) and Keiren Fallon is in flying form, having ridden more winners than any other jockey in the last fortnight.

All of which has pursuaded me to have a bet on this one.

Whilst I'm at it, let's dispel another commonly held belief that you shouldn't bet each way in a race with less than eight runners because you only get two places instead of three. to me, it's bollocks and I'll tell you why. In a race like this one today, with six runners, you have to beat four horses home to get a return (at 1/4 of the odds). Add two more horse and you would then have to beat five horses home and only get 1/5 of the odds for a place.

So don't be scared to back each way - as long as you feel that your horse has a chance of winning. Never back each way just hoping for a place because you're effectively saying that you're chucking half of your stake away.

10pt each way on Signifer at 8/1 with Ladbrokes (1/4 odds for a place)

Win = 100 points profit
Second = 10 points profit
other = 20pts loss
 
Race four is the 155 Redcar. 2/1 fav in a 10 runner race might sometimes be tempting but not this one.

Time is short so no bet for me but a quick glance says that if I was playing in this race, I'd be looking closely at Lady Caprice at the win price 9/2 or Spring Daisy for each way at 8/1.

200 Ascot is the Another open handicap where it would be easy to get drawn into backing the fav Medicean Man at 4/1 but it is definitely not a race for me. I'm wary of backing the favourites in 5 furlong races in particular because something monor only has to go wrong (such as a bad break from the stalls) and there is no time for your horse to recover. Conversely, this is exactly what makes them decent races for each way bets. The cavelry charges with 30+ runners aside, a decent ten runner five furlong handicap can present decent ew value bets.
 
Looking at the prices for the 205 newmarket and it seems a decent prospect as a betting race. If we ignore the three outsiders (at our peril) we are effectively left with a choice of seven horses so you have the option of a win bet or an ew bet. For me, and ew bet has to be at least 8/1 to be an option and, as I said before, has to have a chance to actually win the race. I'm liking the look of Taqleed and for no other reason than I've backed it before and the trainer is one of my particular favourites to follow.

10pts ew Taqleed 8/1 bet365 1/4 odds the place.
 
I'm not going to go through every race but the 225 at Redcar is another of the kind of races that I think present the punter with a chance of actually picking the winner. I'm not saying I know what that winner will be, just that I've I had ten races like this one and I didn't make a profit then I would count myself as very unlucky or have to admit that I just don't know what i'm doing.

Unlike the previous non handicap race I wouldn't dismiss any of these as possible winners which makes it a decent prospect if you're thinking of playing for the win or each way. I like the look of Musical Valley for the win bet. The price is drifting but that doesn't put me off (unless the dirft is massive in a short space of time).

I'm happy to teke 11/2 for a 10pt win bet on it with vcbet

I'll also risk an each way shout on Feels Like Heaven at 12/1 bet365 1/4 odds.

The rest of my selections I'll just bang down with little or no comments just for the record
 
Dubya Dynamo in the 12.50 at Ascot.
Had a text off a mate who said its "nailed on " , we shall see , i usually pick my own but hes pretty reliable ..
 
Mmm , looks like third place , just away to throw a brick through his window , back in a sec :mad:
 
Not a good start from my selections but here are the rest of today's (you'll notice they are all non-handicap races). I've named the bookie where the odds are not widely available and all bets are best odds guaranteed unless stated.

405 redcar Old English 10pt ew 5/1 boyles

420 newm Monopo0lize 10pt ew 5/1 1/5 odds bet365

610 AYR Trail Blaze 10pt ew 4/1 1/4 odds

440 redcar American Lover 10pt win 7/1

530 Kilbeggan Sustitution 5pt ew 8/1 1/5 odds

600 Kilbeggan Miss Accurate 10pt win 7/2 boyle

620 ling Royal Selection 5pt ew 10/1 boyle 1/5 odds

700 Kilb Father Shine 5/1 10pt win (stan james not BOG)

720 Ling Art Law 6/1 10pt win bet365

730 Kilb Goban Saor 10pt win 4/1 betfred - been having trouble with their website today. Bit hit and miss

820 Ling O Ma Lad 10pt win 11/4
 
A nearly day yesterday with 1 win, 4 places and a non runner. Loss of 16 points on the day

First one today 205 at The Curragh Samooda 10pt win at 4/1 bet365

215 Leicester Snooky 5pts ew 6/1

230 Windsor Ashpan Sam 10pt win 6/1

245 leic Saharia 20 pt win 5/2

335 Curragh Remember Alexander 10pt win 7/2

400 Leic Agadir Summer 5pts ew 11/1 1/5 odds
 
ONEDUNME said:
A nearly day yesterday with 1 win, 4 places and a non runner. Loss of 16 points on the day

First one today 205 at The Curragh Samooda 10pt win at 4/1 bet365

215 Leicester Snooky 5pts ew 6/1 NOWHERE

230 Windsor Ashpan Sam 10pt win 6/1 NOWHERE
245 leic Saharia 20 pt win 5/2 BEATEN BY A FRIGGIN HEAD!

335 Curragh Remember Alexander 10pt win 7/2 NOWHERE

400 Leic Agadir Summer 5pts ew 11/1 1/5 odds
Click to expand...
NOWHERE

Piss poor effort
 
Quick one as the off is fast approaching...

645 Nottingham Inya House 20pt ew 11/2

745 Nottingham Masta Plasta 10 pt win 13/2
 
It will be if it wins, Freddie Bolt in the last at Beverley tomorrow.
 
Sorry ODM, im going against you and opting for Wodian in your race 13/2 at the mo
 
blimey just put my bet on and its drifted out to 16s,they aving a laugh,whats happened,no way is this horse 16s,im on anyway,i aint going to be put off,16s my arse.
 
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