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ThunderCelt's Scottish Antepost Multiples III

This week's:

Aberdeen 2/5, Hibernian 6/1, Dunfermline 2/5, Annan 11/4, 50.45/1, £5.84, Unibet, potential returns £300.47
 
This week's:

Aberdeen 4/9, Hibernian 5/1, Dunfermline 33/100, Clyde 3/1, 45.28/1, £6.49, Unibet, potential returns £300.36
 
This week's:

Aberdeen 2/9, Hibernian 5/1, Dunfermline 1/6, Queen's Park 3/1, 33.22/1, £8.77, Bet365, potential returns £300.11
 
This week's:

Aberdeen 1/5, Hibernian 5/2, Dunfermline 1/8, Elgin 15/2, 39.16/1, £7.47, Bet365, potential returns £300.00
 
This week's:

Aberdeen 1/4, Hibernian 4/1, Dunfermline 1/10, Stirling Albion 16/1, 115.87/1, £2.57, Bet365, potential returns £300.36
 
This week's:

Hearts 4/1, Rangers 2/9, Dunfermline 1/20, Elgin 5/1, 37.5/1, £7.80, BetFred, potential returns £300.30.
 
This week's:

Hearts 4/1, Hibernian 4/1, Dunfermline 1/20, Clyde 11/4, 97.44/1, £3.05, Sky, potential returns £300.24.
 
No bets this week. At the moment I've got every combination of the four leaders and sides within seven points of them and as that's over two wins I'm happy at the moment, but will keep an eye on sides putting a run together.
 
This week's:

Aberdeen 1/12, Hibernian 9/2, Ayr 8/1, Elgin 3/1, 213.5/1, £1.4, Stan James, potential returns £300.30
 
This week's:

Aberdeen 1/16, Hibernian 9/2, Dunfermline 1/20, East Fife 4/1, 29.68/1, £9.78, Sky, potential returns £300.05
 
With the three lower divisions sorted and Aberdeen and Hearts the only sides that can win the Without Celtic market, I've got all outcomes covered. To win my £300 I've spent £270, so a profit of 11.11%.

This is the third season I've done this; the previous two have resulted in a 33% profit and a small loss, so I'm averaging around a 14% yield. I've also been doing this with the three Conference divisions, with similar good results, so I'm happy that the idea of antepost multiples in the right circumstances is proven. Acknowledgement Hotspur :zhail

HOWEVER...I've also been doing this with the four English top divisions (bets not recorded here) with much worse results including a couple of big losses. I think that's probably because the four English leagues tend to be very tight with form coming and going, making it near-impossible to cover all eventualities.

So, while I think the principle is proved in the right circumstances, I do think it's dependent on the right choice of leagues.
 
ThunderCelt said:
With the three lower divisions sorted and Aberdeen and Hearts the only sides that can win the Without Celtic market, I've got all outcomes covered. To win my £300 I've spent £270, so a profit of 11.11%.

This is the third season I've done this; the previous two have resulted in a 33% profit and a small loss, so I'm averaging around a 14% yield. I've also been doing this with the three Conference divisions, with similar good results, so I'm happy that the idea of antepost multiples in the right circumstances is proven. Acknowledgement Hotspur :zhail

HOWEVER...I've also been doing this with the four English top divisions (bets not recorded here) with much worse results including a couple of big losses. I think that's probably because the four English leagues tend to be very tight with form coming and going, making it near-impossible to cover all eventualities.

So, while I think the principle is proved in the right circumstances, I do think it's dependent on the right choice of leagues.
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Wow. I came on here because it's the Monday following boring old International break time and time is going backwards for me. I never expected to see such an intruiging final post Thundercelt.

I wish you were online right now because I'm dying to ask you a couple of questions about your experiences with betting on the 4 main English leagues.

Actually the main thing I really want to know is could you confirm that you were a) betting solely on the 'to win the league' market and b) whether you did the first bet before the season started or if not when?

I had some news for you specifically about the latest on this form of betting.

But first let me just let you know that ,while I ,um,appreciate the acknowledgement, it's my duty I think to let you know that every single mathematician on gambling forums is certain,CERTAIN,that this in fact cannot work!

I'm going to have a leisurely read of your latest bets now. It really is fascinating to me to see how others do this and it's a great pity to me that there aren't at least a dozen such threads on the Internet.

Well done on your effort. But I'm hoping that next season you can do a thread where you don't restrict yourself to only betting on previously specified markets.
(Edit in case anyone misconstrues,obviously by restricting yourself to the same 4 markets you make it harder.)
 
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This comment is meant to be tounge in cheek just to be clear. Although having said that I do mean it too.

Someone mentioned 'a working mans bet' on here. Which made me smile because I always think of the stakes on here,as someone who has had to go through a dead persons belongings etc,as,um,

'lonely,dying pensioner' bets.

Sorry.
Punter said:
Good luck again this season TC, always an interesting thread, hope you smash 'em.

I'm totally with you on using real money terms, it's not like we're laying down thousands and showing off about it. Working mans money that usually results in a nice little profit, we all like that.
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This comment isn't aimed at Punter . I just felt the need to make what I believe is a very important point.

Punter says 'we all like that' and refers to the working man.

Well,at the moment 99.99% of all working men,I think it's fair to assert,have no idea about antepost accumulators. So they can't make one single penny from them as they don't do them.

So the question is how can they find out about them and thus hopefully make a bit of money?

Will they find out from this thread. Or will they find out from someone winning a large amount of money and telling people about it?

I know what I think.
 
To answer Hotspur's ( :zhail) questions:

Yes, I was betting on the four 'to win the league' markets. I did one bet a week, with the first the week before the season started. I've done this for two years and last season was particularly bad, with Leicester being a surprise, Burnley coming form nowhere and Burton collapsing, but these 'surprises' seem (to me, anyway) more normal in the top four English leagues generally than elsewhere.

I also did the (4x) relegation markets and (3x) promotion markets, with a bet every other week, and about broke even. I also did the Conference/National divisions (3x) and made a significant profit (see my Conference thread), and top goalscorers (x4) and made a small profit.

Overall these kind of bets made me a very modest overall profit last season.

I'm doing largely similar this season but with more financial emphasis on the leagues I'm confident in. I've not put my bets up because I've proved (to my satisfaction if no one else's) that the principle works in Scotland. I still want to play around with it south of Hadrian's Wall because as an Englishman I want to do the English leagues.
 
ThunderCelt said:
To answer Hotspur's ( :zhail) questions:

Yes, I was betting on the four 'to win the league' markets. I did one bet a week, with the first the week before the season started. I've done this for two years and last season was particularly bad, with Leicester being a surprise, Burnley coming form nowhere and Burton collapsing, but these 'surprises' seem (to me, anyway) more normal in the top four English leagues generally than elsewhere.

I also did the (4x) relegation markets and (3x) promotion markets, with a bet every other week, and about broke even. I also did the Conference/National divisions (3x) and made a significant profit (see my Conference thread), and top goalscorers (x4) and made a small profit.

Overall these kind of bets made me a very modest overall profit last season.

I'm doing largely similar this season but with more financial emphasis on the leagues I'm confident in. I've not put my bets up because I've proved (to my satisfaction if no one else's) that the principle works in Scotland. I still want to play around with it south of Hadrian's Wall because as an Englishman I want to do the English leagues.
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Thanks for your reply and I'm very sorry to take so long to acknowledge it.
 
Thundercelt just to let you know that if things go well in the next three months* I think I will finally be in possession of overwhelming evidence that not only is this profitable but it's the best way to bet on soccer in all probability.


And if that happens I intend to spend however long it takes getting the message over to as many people as I believe the market can cope with.(Not on forums though except for the odd post)

Why am I telling you this?

Well. I very much want to encourage people to take this up but on gambling forums I'm not really allowed to show the evidence or even talk about it but one thing I can do is point out whenever someone has said something that I feel is discouraging.

If someone says something about this that I think is wrong but which nevertheless will encourage people to take this up I won't say anything.

But if someone says something I believe is misleading and discouraging then I really feel I have to speak up.

I hope you understand?


Ok so that's just a long winded way of saying I'm going to appear to-hopefully gently-criticise your findings re betting on the 4 `English leagues last season.

Okie dokie;

Well first of all I totally accept that last season was harder than most. But I think it's important that people realise that the fact that TC lost as much as he did -he wont have lost that much mind-is because of the artificial situation he was in.

People should understand that obviously when they bet on such bets they have the option of stopping if things look difficult thus reducing potential losses .

But `Thundercelt had to carry on because he won't have been primarily motivated by the profit factor but by the desire to find out if betting this way works


Secondly ,the fact that Thundercelt seems to have been caused problems by both Leicester and Burnley makes me believe that perhaps he omitted to read say the RFO and gambling websites other than this one.

Because Leicester were being tipped regularly enough in the Racing and `Football Outlook . Sure those tips were merely based on their price but then their price was big until the last few weeks so I admit to being a bit puzzled as to how they were a problem.

The one thing you ideally want from any team doing this is consistency.And `Leicester were one of the most consistent teams in England.

As were Burnley !

I have to say that when `Burnley were 6-1 I myself together with a few others tipped them as clear value on another site.

So once again I'm not that sure how Burnley posed much of a problem. Especially when they did so well two years earlier to boot?


As for Northampton well they were also incredibly consistent after a slow start but I'm sure TC had no problems with league 2.


And that leaves league 1.

And yes that was a nightmare for me too.

I myself made a loss last season and a significant part of it was down to league 1.

Now I mention that I made a loss to make TC feel better but in doing so I seem to have undermined the whole point of this post,to encourage people to do this.

Well in fact I am going to address how to deal with a situation like league 1 in the thread entitled `Damn you `Thundercelt very soon.

But until then please take on board the fact that in reality when you are doing these bets to make money all you will have needed to do was avoid league 1!!

(So why didn't I avoid league 1 then you may ask? Well I promise you there were very compelling reasons why I couldn't really. Just as TC had his reasons for carrying on regardless I had my reasons for betting on a league I knew was a nightmare.)

Yep. It's that simple. If a market looks hard to trade don't trade it.


But also there's one incredibly simple thing you can do to virtually guarantee that you don't lose more than say a few% even when you encounter a surprise season.

But that's for the other thread.


Once again I hope you don't mind what I felt I should do Thundercelt . It's taken me 18 years to learn what you seem to have mostly learnt in 3 !


* Funnily enough I'm half hoping things don't go well because I really have other things that I wanted to do with my time. But I just think that if I don't do it no one will and I think it's important enough to take priority.

Also overwhelming evidence refers to the sheer number of bets and selections I will have placed over the years and not monetary amounts .
 
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