L
LHR Racing
Guest
The flat season starts again this Friday at Doncaster and the first 2 year old race of the season for the very early developers takes place on Saturday although that’s looking doubtful with the poor forecast.
I am going to post some selections for two systems that I have developed for 2 year old racing. One is a backing system and the other is a laying system. Both are based on speed and form ratings that I designed myself. The theory is based on par speeds for the class and form of the race. If a horse exceeds a certain par mark it is supported next time out and if it falls below a certain mark (for course and class) it is laid the next time. The only proviso with the laying system is a maximum price of 6.
Why two year olds? A couple of reasons – firstly it is an area of racing I’ve always liked. It is nice to be on the lookout for the next Frankel. Secondly it’s a very self-contained area and easier to track for betting purposes. On average around 14,000 two year olds race in a year with around 1,300 races. It’s a lot more manageable than trying to track the tens of thousands that run in all age flat and all weather races. The closed population makes an assessment of collateral form easier. Finally unraced 2 year olds tie in to an analysis of the sires and dams which is something I have also always enjoyed.
A health and wealth warning first. Both systems were tested live to very small stakes in 2012. For various reasons it was not possible to backtest previous years. Sample sizes are therefore fairly small.
Some figures from the laying system
248 Bets 202 Winners
Strike Rate 81%
Yield 15.8% (5% commission)
Longest Losing Run 3 (once) Statistically just under 4 should have been the LLR
Average Lay Odds (pre commission) 3.77
I laid to fixed liability of 1 Unit with a maximum price of 6. All lays finished in the top 3 in their last race but ran below what I would rate a par performance. A starting bank of 20 units should in theory be more than enough if the strike rate above was maintained. I would up slightly to 25 units for the extra comfort. I’d be looking to churn the bank at least once and possibly one and a half times with some luck.
Some figures of interest from the backing system
643 Bets 212 Winners
Strike Rate 32%
Yield 16.7% (5% commission BFSP)
Longest Losing Run 14 (once). Losing runs of twelve (twice) and ten times (twice)
I am restricted to Betfair for most of my betting (not hard to get restricted these days) so it may be possible to do better with early prices and best odds guaranteed. There were however a few big winners at BFSP (20s +) so it probably cancels out. I’d recommend a 100 point bank for this. Staking 1 unit.
For the backing system I will record the prices where they are available with at least two bookmakers preferably those offering the BOG concession. I will be proofing to BFSP as well. As a rule of thumb I personally would take a mixture of live and SP BF prices on selections below 10/1 opening show and have everything over that price at full BFSP.
I will post bets in future between 10.00 and 10.30 with the odd tip the night before racing if the race is priced up. If there are no qualifiers I will post the same. There won’t be anything for a week or two but I would expect things to start picking up by the end of March / early April.
That’s it really.
I am going to post some selections for two systems that I have developed for 2 year old racing. One is a backing system and the other is a laying system. Both are based on speed and form ratings that I designed myself. The theory is based on par speeds for the class and form of the race. If a horse exceeds a certain par mark it is supported next time out and if it falls below a certain mark (for course and class) it is laid the next time. The only proviso with the laying system is a maximum price of 6.
Why two year olds? A couple of reasons – firstly it is an area of racing I’ve always liked. It is nice to be on the lookout for the next Frankel. Secondly it’s a very self-contained area and easier to track for betting purposes. On average around 14,000 two year olds race in a year with around 1,300 races. It’s a lot more manageable than trying to track the tens of thousands that run in all age flat and all weather races. The closed population makes an assessment of collateral form easier. Finally unraced 2 year olds tie in to an analysis of the sires and dams which is something I have also always enjoyed.
A health and wealth warning first. Both systems were tested live to very small stakes in 2012. For various reasons it was not possible to backtest previous years. Sample sizes are therefore fairly small.
Some figures from the laying system
248 Bets 202 Winners
Strike Rate 81%
Yield 15.8% (5% commission)
Longest Losing Run 3 (once) Statistically just under 4 should have been the LLR
Average Lay Odds (pre commission) 3.77
I laid to fixed liability of 1 Unit with a maximum price of 6. All lays finished in the top 3 in their last race but ran below what I would rate a par performance. A starting bank of 20 units should in theory be more than enough if the strike rate above was maintained. I would up slightly to 25 units for the extra comfort. I’d be looking to churn the bank at least once and possibly one and a half times with some luck.
Some figures of interest from the backing system
643 Bets 212 Winners
Strike Rate 32%
Yield 16.7% (5% commission BFSP)
Longest Losing Run 14 (once). Losing runs of twelve (twice) and ten times (twice)
I am restricted to Betfair for most of my betting (not hard to get restricted these days) so it may be possible to do better with early prices and best odds guaranteed. There were however a few big winners at BFSP (20s +) so it probably cancels out. I’d recommend a 100 point bank for this. Staking 1 unit.
For the backing system I will record the prices where they are available with at least two bookmakers preferably those offering the BOG concession. I will be proofing to BFSP as well. As a rule of thumb I personally would take a mixture of live and SP BF prices on selections below 10/1 opening show and have everything over that price at full BFSP.
I will post bets in future between 10.00 and 10.30 with the odd tip the night before racing if the race is priced up. If there are no qualifiers I will post the same. There won’t be anything for a week or two but I would expect things to start picking up by the end of March / early April.
That’s it really.
