Welsh Premier League 19th/20th April

[traeth]

Fri 19 Apr
19:30 Afan Lido v Aberystwyth 3.500 3.500 1.950

Sat 20 Apr

14:30 Carmarthen v Port Talbot 2.300 3.400 2.800
14:30 Prestatyn v The New Saints 6.500 4.100 1.450
14:30 Llanelli v Bala 3.500 3.600 1.952
14:30 Connah's Quay v Newtown 1.952 3.600 3.500
15:45 Airbus v Bangor 2.200 3.500 2.875

 

[pg_yid]

I like under 3.5 in the Lido game tonight, evens at Betfred. The goals seem to have dried up to some extent in the WPL, after an incredibly open first half of the season. I think in leagues with a split, there are generally less goals after a split, as the match-ups are more even and this tends towards lower scoring matches. Aber's price of 1.95 looks correctly set, but I see no reason why there should be loads of goals. Both teams have gone under 3.5 in 5/8 games since the split. Aber are not a particularly overish side in general and Lido didn't find the net in their last two games. I think this is an incorrect pricing based on the first half of the season when Lido were very overish.

 

[pg_yid]

Similar story with Connah's Quay versus Newtown. Both were very high conceding and scoring before the split, but no longer, especially Newtown who have gone under 3.5 in 7/8 games in the relegation group. You can get under 3.5 @ 2.1 with various bookies, and 2.2 with Paddy Power.

 

[traeth]

the organisation of the relegation section of this league is a shambles.
Initially it was organised for all the games to be played at the same time on the final day
Llanelli , who have serious financial problems and may end up being wound up , but the league organised that they play their final game against Aber early , what other league would do this?
Lido are already relegated , who joins them is not yet finalised , could be Llanelli as they could be in admin! or it could be Newtown or Aber.
With two games left for Aber , tonight against Lido and Tuesday against in-form Bala Town .
It looks like Aber need to get the points onboard tonight as I cannot see them getting much from Bala Town.
Newtown play tomorrow and 4 days after Aber's last game against Lido, knowing what they will require.
Llanelli final game will be against Bala Town tomorrow.
Aber feel hard done by and I can see them going all out for a big win against Lido tonight and I think Aber win is a decent bet tonight rather than the unders pg.
Aber won 4-3 at home against Lido a month ago , when the outplayed them , with Lido scoring some excellent goals against the run of play.
Good luck with your bets mate , you done great this season with your overs

here's the relegation league situation at the moment


1. Bala 29 55:40 47
2. Connahs Q. 30 62:66 40
3. Aberystwyth 30 40:58 36
4. Llanelli 31 40:63 36
5. Newtown 30 42:53 34
6. Afan Lido 30 42:79 23

 

[pg_yid]

Thanks mate! FT 0-0 so bet won. Must say I wasn't expecting it to be THAT low scoring, but I'm happy.
I think that Lido will end up staying up because Llanelli will surely fail the licence and it looks like no team will get promoted from the south. Unless they can promote two from the north but I'm not sure that is possible.
I was tempted by TNS @ 1.5 as well against struggling Prestatyn but got distracted and the odds had dropped so I left it.

 

[traeth]

great call pg
you're right only one team from the North can get promoted , which is Rhyl.
From the South , Haverfordwest have a licence but need to finish in the top two , they are on 42 points , 7 behind the leaders and six games to go.
The big game today is Airbus(2nd) v Bangor(3rd) , both teams have 51 points and this is their penultimate game of the season , Airbus have the better goal difference. 2nd place will give them a place in Europe. Difficult to pick a winner but Bangor have won their four meetings this season.

 

[pg_yid]

Yeah difficult to pick a winner in that one. At those prices I would probably side with Bangor if I had to choose but it's a no bet for me.