66 views, and so far just talking to myself
We'll stick with it though.....
Lets look at the hand from the Villains perspective and see what he might do differently, if anything at all.
So from his perspective, he is sitting in the SB holding 8
8
A player opens the pot from the Cut-off position for 3BB. Button folds and action is on the SB, with the BB still to act after the SB.
The SB here should be firstly thinking about what kind of range (i.e. what sort of hands) the CO has, and then thinking about what the best response to that range is, given his (SB) hand AND how the BB reaction to any call or raise might influence matters (obviously if SB folds, he doesn't care much what the BB does, other than for information or entertainment!)
Hero's stats aren't shown on the above info, so the only information we have is that Hero has 227.5 BB. In the absence of any other information I'd be assuming therefore that hero is a good player (good players are more likely to have big stacks than bad ones), and using stats for good players at that level. I'd expect a decent player here to be opening something like 20-35% of hands. Lets choose 20% of hands - on the basis that while there are flaws to being too tight (i.e. assuming the CO is opening fewer hands than he really is) or too loose, it will be a less costly mistake to assume CO is tighter than he actually is.
What does 20% of hands look like? That'll depend on the player and which hands he chooses, but an example of 20% (that'll be workable enough for us to use) would be any pair, any ace and big Kings - e.g. KQ, KJs. Individuals (me included) picking 20% might vary that a little - e.g. dropping weaker aces (say A2o-A8o) and adding suited broadway plus some smaller suited connectors - e.g. 87s, 76s, 65s, but our assumption above will work fine.
So now villain has a sense of the range that Hero might have, he needs to think about how to play his hand, and how the BB action could influence things.
A general rule here is that you should be very reluctant to flat-call a raise in the SB position. This is because your position will be the worst possible one post-flop, AND the BB still has to act pre-flop. If you just call, you offer the BB a chance to 'squeeze' and you could be now facing a 3 bet (or even 4 bet). So usually it is better to either fold or to 3Bet yourself. So lets look at the big blind here - we know he has a short stack (only 19BB) and has VPIP/PFR of 29/7 and a 3Bet of 0 over 61 hands. Its a small sample, but this looks very like a semi-loose, very passive player - big gap between the VPIP and PFR and no 3Betting. This guy is very unlikely to raise in the normal run of things, and given his small stack, if he does raise he is committing. We can generally anticipate therefore that the most likely outcome if we flat-call is a call (BB is getting great odds if we just call), with a smaller chance of a raise all-in if we raise or call
So our options:
a) Fold - definitely not, we have 57% equity against a 20% range. We have good odds to play, and deep stacks
b) Call - we could, and we'll probably have a 3 way pot with 9 BB in the pot and a solid hand
c) Raise - we could. If we raise and the BB folds, then we put Hero to a decision. If we raise and BB shoves then Hero has to fold all but his monster hands, while we're happy enough to call a 19BB all-in with this hand against the BB
So it is between call and raise. Either way we need to think about how me might play post-flop (if required). 88 is going to be tricky to play out of position. If we flop an 8, we're generally going to be happy to play for our stack. If not, then it is harder. "Most flops miss most hands" is a truism, but when we're out of position and probably facing overcards, it is hard to know whether our opponent has hit his hand or not. With hero having position on us, he can represent a bigger hand, (especially) if we show any weakness.
My normal advice here would be to raise - for the reasons above around not giving the BB opportunities to raise, but this BB situation is unusual, and I'd actually be indifferent enough between raising and calling. Small and middle pairs also benefit from implied odds - when they do hit, they typically make a monster hand
So, the call is a perfectly reasonable option, and we move to the flop.
Villain could check-fold, check call (as he does), check-raise or lead the flop (so-called 'donk' bet)
Check-folding is definitely too weak here - with Hero's range containing lots of lower pairs, high cards etc, he'll miss this flop a lot and 88 is still ahead. It is going to be worth a call (or raise) at least once
Check-calling is certainly justified, but any card over 10 is scary and except for the 2 magic eights, no other card below 10 really likely changes the hand much - the exception being if Hero has a smaller pair than ours and hits his set. So if we check-call, we're hoping, in most situations that hero gives up and we can check the hand down. If hero 'barrels' the turn - i.e. bets again, we have an unpleasant decision
Check-raising is probably the play I'd favour here, and I'll explain further, but first....
Donking here is an option, but..... Donking is normally a reflection of a weak, but made hand, by weak players, especially if small. Lots of good players will raise donk bets with any two cards it is very hard for the donking player to call against what could legitimately be a very strong hand. We're unlikely to get any decent player to fold to a donk bet on this board, so we gain no information, we don't get a fold, and we're still out of position. If we're raised after donking, we're going to have to fold here unless we know something really strong about Hero and how he plays.
Check-raising suggests we:
- have a 3
- have a ten, probably one we like - e.g KT, AT
- have a decent pair (as we actually do)
- have a flush draw
Remember that hero misses this flop most times, but will likely continuation bet (as the pre-flop raiser) most times. Only a small set of his hands can actually stand a check-raise here, and fewer still will re-raise. A good flush draw, a decent 10. Maybe 99 can call. JJ will call. QQ+ can/will probably re-raise. QQ+ is 18 hands, from a range of ~250-300 hands. Other hands that are ahead of us are at most 100 hands, and not all of those will want to call. So probably something like 200 of Hero's possible hands are c-betting that flop and probably 150 of those are folding to our check-raise.
If we bet to something like 20BB, the pot will be 33BB and hero will be facing another 14BB to call. Those odds are ok, especially as he happens to hold top pair, but hero is now in the unpleasant situation where he can expect further pressure and potentially is very far behind.
From villains perspective he is risking 20BB to win 33BB, so if hero folds >60% of the time then villain makes a profit. Of course on those occasions where hero just calls the check-raise, villain will end up with the winning hand some of the time also.
If villain just flat-calls, as he does, then his routes to winning are:
a) hit a miracle card - 4% chance of so of this both coming and holding up - e.g. hero might make a bigger full house
b) call another c-bet and hope to catch a bluff by hero
c) hope that hero gives up and villain sees and wins a showdown
d) make a big aggressive move (as villain actually does) on a more expensive street.
Villain has obviously flat called here, so lets look at his best options from then on, given that he has actually gone to the turn. The 3:diamond doesn't change anything here, bar making it less likely that hero has a set of 3s. So we're actually a little better off in that sense, albeit hero has bet again, making it more likely that he has something. 55-77, 65s are still in his range probably - although many of these might check back the turn. Flush draws are there too and might take the free card. There'll be a few combo draws, e.g. A
2
or A
5
in his range too.
So villain, on the turn, could:
- check-fold - a bit weak, maybe, as hero will be reluctant to triple barrel most rivers and the hand has some value. However, hero has also bet twice, so a good chance we're behind. The perils of playing out of position!
- check-call - we could be ahead, and if we call, we'll get to see to see the river and often a free showdown. We have the minute chance that we hit our 8 and get action against hero if he has a 3 or a big overpair. We have some value too against some of hero's range that bets both flop and turn.
- check-raise - as he does. The problem here is we have to ask what kind of hands fold here that are beating us, or would be the river, and what hands are calling us that we are ahead of? Flush draws may fold, particularly weaker ones, 99 folds. Combo draws fold. A weaker 10 may fold (but we didn't
). No hands that we are ahead of call here IMO, bar some flush draws.
On balance I really don't like this turn raise
As played, villain check-raises and hero calls.
On the river villain has a full house, but hero has shown good strength to date, suggesting he has top pair or better. About the only hand that calls the turn and folds the river is a missed flush draw. We can assume that if villain shoves the river that hero will call any hand that beats villain (as we do
) So villains shove is relying entirely on fold-equity - he is risking 58 to win 140 (including his 58). Villain needs hero to fold 41% of the time to make a profit. In other words, villain needs hero to be calling that turn check-raise with weaker hands at least 41% of the time. Isn't going to happen
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