Discussion in 'Eurovision 2012 Betting' started by Gavster, Mar 13, 2012.
Still think this is a strong entry
Winning nation total points: 260 or below @ 1.95
I've been thinking of this same bet for a while. Havent decided what I think of it. Last year 43 countries and Azerbaijan got 221 points, which is 5,1 points on average per country. The year before that Lena got 246 points with 39 countries, 6,3 points average. Lena's average this year would mean the winner gets 265 points, as there are 42 participants this year. in 2009 "fairytale" obviosuly crushed. before 2009 we didnt have jury, so I dont know how comparable those are.
This year the songs are better on average than last year (in my opinion obv), so that would indicate it's going to be a tight race and the winner gets below 260. But, Sweden is perceived to be _really_ strong, and I guess there is a chance she runs away with it and takes it down by a big margin, thus getting over 260 points and screwing this bet. If sweden wasnt so hyped, I would like that bet a lot, then again if that was the case the odds might not be 1.95.
I've been trying to figure out this bet for weeks now, and figure whether this is a good bet or not but I havent been able to come to a conclusion. Right now I feel like it's close to a +-0 EV bet, but I dont know.. this is a hard one.
Like Archi iv had this on my radar a while but keep pulling back from it.Im leaning into it now though but its really a lay against Sweden as if they dont win i cant see the winner getting more than 260.So really we have an evens ish lay on Sweden and in that context a strong bet.
IMO Sweden wont run away with it,for its so called run away success its chart positions were to be frank a bit poo,and on Youtube its way way behind a few others and thats telling as everyone checks the favourite out on there so they should be at least up with the most hits(Germany had the most hits when they won,Sweden trail the top by 50%,3 million less hits than the top Romania).If Sweden dont win it will be because the votes are spread and would secure this bet.
On betfair the liquidity on the top 10 market is very weak and iv been putting up some prices and getting taken.Iv had a lot of Norway taken at 2.46 and im getting a lot of Greece taken at 48s on the win market (to trade later).Worth a look peeps to put some prices up as a good chance youl get matched while the liquidity is so low.
not worth the risk imo. i don't think sweden will run away with it and we haven't had the draw yet... but i think russia might wherever it's drawn if there is enough hype about the backstory? the one imponderable about russia though is how the jury's will mark it?
The juries will mark Russia poorly. The televote, however, will be strong. Whilst I've eased off from my reckoning of a marginal place, they should at least be a top-10 certainty.
GREECE 7/5 @bwin
8 pts Cyprus v Romania 3/5 @bwin
3 pts Turkey v Greece 3/4 @bwin
I dont know why I agonize over Eurovision decision so much, it's not THAT much money afterall
Thanks, that's what I needed. I was leaning on the option to take a free bet, just needed some reassurance that it's a decent choice right now
I always think trading to a free bet is always a good call,you got yourself into a good position so why not make the best of it.Iv got big free runs on Italy and Romania now win and top 4.I was hoping to be in the same position with Greece but not yet.Iv been taking some win market on them at 46s so im really hoping for a good show in rehearsal sunday and it comes in to 35s or less as id like to run them win and top 4 free if possible.
Im quite happy so far how things are going,and really looking forward to rehearsals now.
This can of course change as a part of a risk-management strategy, if you have too large a portion of your roll riding on this particular bet.
good points,my early bets always carry too much of my roll for the final event and are placed to trade out later and the amount i trade out depends on if the price then stands,however like you said my match bets even if well in still hold and will run without any tinkering.I think on Archis bets its more risk management as he is deep on the not qualify bet.
Yeah, I know this. And it's really hard to say, but I think 1.35 is pretty close to the correct odds. Who really knows, everyone only has educated guesses and estimations, and I feel like it's getting close to the "right" price. And I think I will hedge, but whether I will risk it and bet after rehearsals or before is the issue with me. Because I expect odds to move when rehearsals begin. And yeah, it's risk management more than anything else with me right now. I need to trade some bets just to not risk too big of a hole. And I will still have somewhat significant risk on SF1, and finals, but trading this away will help with the agony on SF1 night.
Strange, I have very little bets on SF2. I find it very hard to analyze. I feel like SF2 is a lot harder to bet on compared to SF1.
Me too Archi,the only interest i have is a small match bet on the Netherlands to beat Belgium across the 2,its almost like SF2 isnt happening,i cant see any value or get any angle.Might change with rehearsals but i just stare at it blank.
Banking on the staging to be as impressive as last year and if so think this will shorten for a nice trade.
Turkey vs Cyprus 1.72. That's a tad generous isn't it?
Im not sure on that Gavster.I think Cyprus will sink,but if Turkey does that wandering around drunk thing i fear for them.Plus Cyprus seems to be doing so well with the polls,i know we try to ignore them etc but that live performance wasnt bad.Maybe thats a bet to grab after youv seen the rehearsals?It does look very generous on the face of it though.Maybe see the Cyprus rehearsal then decide?