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ODM's Pretty Young Things

Discussion in 'Horse Racing & Greyhound Tips' started by ONEDUNME, Apr 25, 2016.

  1. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    11,575
    I defy anyone to watch the 530 race and tell me that Cornborough would not have won if it hadn't been hampered by a falling horse. Backed in from 14/1 to 8/1 there is no doubt that today was supposed to have been its day but only got second.
  2. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    11,575
    12 runners yesterday- zero winners. This isn’t how it’s supposed to go:cry
  3. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    11,575
    Strange old weekend. No winners out of 12 Friday, a massive 18 runners on Saturday and only two winners but they were 20/1 and 9/2 which returned me a decent profit. Sunday was another blank, albeit with only three runners and today there were 6 runners with a couple of winners backed at 8/1 and 10/1. Tomorrow might be interesting.

    210 Fairyhouse La Tektor, 11/10 but a stupidly large field of 24 so I'll just put a small 10pts on it, despite the fact that I am sure that this horse will win sooner rather than later.

    410 Yarmouth Klass Action. I'll be putting 5pts ew on this at 5/1 and will be adding a place bet for 3 places on the exchanges tomorrow but I WILL be putting a lay in given that this horse has traded at 4/5 and 1/2 before betting beaten

    540 Wolves The Bull. Never runs well on its first run after a break so I'm hoping its last effort can be ignored . 11/2 available for 4 places so worth 10pts ew on it

    625 Lingfield Be Like Me . I'll admit there is no obvious reason for sticking with this horse after its poor run last time but I'm hoping a change of track and a change of jockey might help although it may need a return to turf or help from the handicapper before it can strike again. A speculative 5pts ew 20/1 3 places 1/5

    640 Wolves Elerfaan . This would probably be my value bet of the day. 10pt ew 7/1 3places 1/5

    740 Wolves Samstar. I think this will give a better account of itself than its last run on soft ground and will win a maiden before too long. 10pts ew 8/1

    810 Wolves Sadlers Soul. Has a job on its hands to beat the fav but its price is tempting enough to give it a go. 10pts ew 7/1 3 places 1/5
    Punter likes this.
  4. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    11,575
    I won't start by after-eventing but I've had a bit of good fortune with big prices recently and I have three prospective chances today. The prices were better last night but I'll put them up anyway.

    Two in same race 350 Baby Steps 10/1 and Diamonique 18/1 and one in 510 Salisbury Cotubanama 22/1

    Also Impulsion (also 510) 5pts ew 6/1.

    The others are either bad value or running against an odds on fav but I have plenty of time so here they are

    215 Wetherby White Coat 11/4
    230 Salisbury Real Smooth 13/8
    320 Wetherby Dorah 4/1
    405 Salisbury Eagles by day 5/2

    The last one runs in France and is odds on. Epic Hero 135 Longchamp 4/5 so all in all, most of my interest will be in the first three.
  5. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    11,575
    Expecting some winners today l. Will post up when I get chance- probably about midday
  6. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    11,575
    Well for some reason I didn't press the bloody post button but may have saved someone somewhere some money (for some reason this thread has had 3,000 views in the last 3 weeks) as it was a losing day overall

    All prices are as of now- most were better last night

    325 st cloud france Ostillo 7/2 10 pts

    355 ascot pocket dynamo 5 pts ew 14/1

    410 pontefract Kripke 20pts 7/4

    450 bath 10pt win tin hat 10 pt 3 places 5/4

    500 ascot Tomily 5ew 6/1 4 places leo minor 5 ew 9/1 4 places

    435 brighton pink flamingo 15 pts 15/8

    600 bath ever rock 5 ew 7/1

    615 brighton seshanka 20pts 1/2

    605 Punchestown Al Boum Photo 10pts 13/8

    700 Bath Bayshore Freeway 20pts 6/4

    735 Frankophilia 5pts ew 6/1
    Punter likes this.
  7. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    11,575
    Not confident tomorrow but, as today shows, that means nothing so may be in for a profit.

    225 Chantilly Mutamakina 10pts at whatever the price is
    420 Chantilly Big Boots 10pt win or 5pt ew if 5/1 or over

    525 Salisbury Harry Beau 2pts ew 33/1 4 places
    620 Salisbury Emirates Empire 10pt win 3/1
    630 Salisbury Forty four sunsets 10pt ew 4/1 1/4 odds a place
    640 Punch Us and Them 5pts ew 18/1
    715 Punch Rythym Devine 2pt ew 40/1
    725 Chelms Chapelli currently 10/1 and drifting - will look to back for 4 places tomorrow
    825 Chelms Maamara 10pts ew 9/1 1/5 odds 3 places
  8. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    11,575
    145 chep consultant was 7/4 last night now 11/8

    205 ling sadlers soul 33/1

    more to follow when i get tine
  9. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    11,575
    315 chep cotabunama 14/1 was 20s earlier
  10. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    11,575
    Tomorrow's losers

    320 ripon Aiya
    420 ripon Muqaab
    430 Hamilton Galloway Hills and zig zag ziggy (the latter is the bigger bet)
    450 ripon Maamora
    705 chelmsford Octave
    900 Leopardstown A step too far

    :thumb
    Punter likes this.
  11. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    11,575
    725 Chester Vardon Flyer. Good run (2nd) last time out and also 2nd the time before. Looks to be improving and worth a punt at 5/1.
  12. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    11,575
    Forgive Hameem's seemingly poor effort last time after stepping up in class. EW bet at 5/1 tomorrow 400 Ascot
  13. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    11,575
    What's the going likely to be like at Fairyhouse-anyone know? The reason I ask is that I'm looking at Coffeemeanscoffee in the 715 tomorrow. If you look at its form, you may well think that I've lost my marbles (and I may well have done to be fair[​IMG]) but it ran a good race at Bath the time before last on its first run on anything firmer than good. 11th of 18 on its last run wouldn't inspire confidence but I watched the race and it was just starting to make a bit of a move through the field when it got blocked and then bumped which ended any chance that it had. It wouldn't have won the race but may well have placed at a decent 12/1 price. I think it has a race in it and the firmer the ground, the better.

    12/1 with 5 places tomorrow with some bookies. I'll have some of that
  14. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    11,575
    I mentioned Coffeemeanscoffee on here the other day. It didn't run but it's out tomorrow. Some discrepancy amongst the bookmakers who are going anything between 8s and 14s. I'll have a bit of that[​IMG]

    Ricochet should finally break his duck tomorrow in the745 at Leicester but is priced up accordingly at 10/11 (WH) and Perfect Grace could follow up its win the other week. After three shite efforts on the all weather, it's a different beast on turf and looks progressive. A fact that hasn't escaped the handicapper's attention as he's bunged 8lb onto her. I suppose the ground is going to be good at Leicester tomorrow (820) if we get a few showers as promised tonight so it will be interesting to see if she goes as well on that but breeding suggest there's no need to doubt it and I can see her winning this with a bit in hand. Currently 2/1.
  15. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    11,575
    140 Chelmsford. Jm Jackson. Has shown enough ability to show that itwin races. Money for two newcomers doesn't worry me as experience isworth a lot at this stage of a horse's career but the lack of a runon the all weather is an unknown. Then again, it's also an unknownfor its two market rivals. 5/2 a price worth having a tilt at.


    205 Newmarket Incredulous. Picked up after 2nd run and duly obliged for me next time out. 2nd in subsequentrace. Steps up considerably tomorrow and may flop like a floppy thing but I'll be on it each way. Currenly 16/1, 8 runners.


    210 Chelmsford. I don't like doing this but it is an open enough handicap race and, assuming no non runners and prices are around the same tomorrow, I will be backing both of these at 8/1. Leo Minor is awell raced handicapper (5 year old) who was running consistently well this time last year but who's rating has waned since. He can win off his current mark of 72 if showing anything like last year's form. The other one is Kamikaze Lord. Showed some ability last September in his early races but hasn't sparkled at all this year. Looking forpositives, the trainer has just had his first winner today for over ayear (a bit unfair given the number of horses perhaps but nonetheless[​IMG])and IF this beast has any ability (and I'm betting that it has) , you can draw a graph with a line to show the declining OR meeting the inevitable coming together of the right circumstances and the beast is likely to win at a rewarding price.


    215 Thirsk. Frustratingly, I have the two of the top three horses inthe betting in my tracker (Beauty of Deira and Morning Duel) so ifone of the trainers could drop one out please so that I can pile on the other one, I would be very grateful. Thanks. Failing that, Iwill pick the bet that I think represents most value around midday tomorrow (whether that be win/ew/insurance/without the fav) and gof or that and hope the other one doesn't win.


    225 Goodwood . Corgi. Tracker horse from last year. Doesn't run manybad races. One of those irritating horses that is too genuine for its own good. At 5/1 I'm not impressed by the price but that's to be expected. I'll see what the options are in the morning.

    When you've been sticking young horses in your tracker since April,it's inevitable that they're going to keep cropping up in the sameraces at this time of the year and the 240 Newmarket is another oneof those. Rose of Kildare got me a couple of early wins (albeit atshort prices) and has got rid of most of that since. Was thehandicapper too harsh with his early assessment or is he just notthat good? Well, as we tend to do, I have found excuses for histhree poorest runs. Heavy ground, the only time out at 7 furlongsand jinking right out of the stalls last time out. Not the firsttime she has cocked up the start and she stil runs green as baby shitsometimes despite having 7 runs under her belt but I see that assomet kind of positive in a way. If she gets a good break anddoesn't run so green, the handicapper may regret taking a couple ofpounds off. Available at 12/1 for 4 places or 14/1 for 3 places. Theother one is Go Well Spicy. 22/1 (18/1 4 places) and drifting - tostep up and with no excuse for its last run (nursery handicap) butwill go on the ground and still a bit left from it's last win for meto risk a small investment.


    330 Doncaster Jomrok. I'll take the 5/2 on this over the odds onFirst in Line every day of every week of every year.


    335 Galway. Was it on here that I read that Ryan Moore had said thatLancaster House was the best unraced 3 year old at Ballydoyle? Probably. So not one of my trackers but on it anyway at 5/2


    340 Goodwood True Mason. Win and a couple of places for me last yearfor a profit but abysmal since October. Still, I have two magicwords for you “wind operation” lol. 50/1 for 6 places anddrifting. Will maybe look for a decent price for 7 places for smallstakes and watch the run with interest as, legend goes, they often gobetter 2nd time after a wind op once they catch on thatthis breathing lark is easy.


    350 Newmarket. Blonde Warrior has had some wins and places since Itook interest last year but not at decent enough prices to make me aprofit. Gonne take an ew chance on it in a class three tomorrow ifthe 8 runners stand their ground. Currently 6/1


    Ventura Ocean. Win and a couple of places has seen my judgement rewarded thus far. I've got to go with it again tomorrow but at 3/1in an open race, only for small stakes.


    355 Chelmsford Zahee is in my tracker but way too many unknownstomorrow for a bet at 4/1


    400 Thirsk Tulfarris. Been shite since the moment I entered it intomy tracker but down to the same mark as then and 6/1 fav for tomorrow4 places but 11/2 for 5.

    405 Doncaster. Anyone who's still awake will remember I said that Ikeep old tracker horses and have a look? Well, Everything for you isone from 2017. Won last time out and an each way price (9/1) in a 13runner race tomorrow. Never won off tomorrow's mark but burst in toform this exact same time last year so let's give it a go.


    Francis Xavier was another who ran well last summer (thank you verymuch). Tried (and failed) in class 2 and class 1 races most recentlybut is persisted with tomorrow. Course and distance winnerpreviously so there is hope but I'll be looking to back it next timeif it does fail tomorrow. 10/1 a fair ew price.


    415 Goodwood. Great Ambassador. Drifting due to the strength of theO'brian fav but has had two decent seconds so far and an entry for a£300k race in September (not always a realiable guide but I'll be onit). 5/1 at the moment so we'll see where the price settles in themorning.


    435 Thirsk Buriram. Not a race to look too deeply into or I'll just putmyself off. Just get on at 5/2 and move on.


    450 Goodwood Land of Legends 7/2 win (getting tired now)


    500 Newmarket Elishiba. Doesn't break well – shite in last tworaces. Handicap mark may be too high. Goes better on all weather. Am I tempting you?[​IMG] 7 runners so a win bet at 5/1 and a place bettomorrow when the liquidity kicks in on the exchanges.


    525 Goodwood. Storting. 10/1 each way 5 places. Apprentice Handicaprace. Best jockey is on the fav Gifts of Gold which is the one I'd bebacking if I had a brain but sometimes you've just got to go with theflow


    550 Hamilton Mr Fudge. Good debut but going backwards since. Thething that only he and I realise is that, he's been hanging back andrunning green just waiting for the handicapper to give him a lowhandicap and for the step up to 7 furlongs. The rest of the worldis going to be wondering what the hell happened at 6 o'clock tomorrownight :-0




    605 Lingfield Choral Music. One from last year's tracker and one ofmy most profitable ones at that. Before you dismiss it, take a lookat it's Lingfield form in isolation. That and the fact that it wonfor me at 50/1 means there's no chance I'm going to let this one runwithout my money on it. Each way bet at 14/1.


    650 Hamilton. 9 runners – 2 tracker horses – 1 decision to make. The very fact that it's back at the course and at the distance thatit won at last race but one makes Cool Spirit a must back at 7/2. Idaren't leave Dancing Rave alone because the bastard will go and winif I do. It gets you like that sometimes. 13/2 at the moment anddrifting.


    720 Hamilton Outsider of the bunch Zig Zag Zyggy at 20/1. Each waybet (2 places) and another bet tomorrow for 3 places. Marnie Jamesis back down to his last winning mark and back at the course anddistance of last year's victory. Only ran at Hamilton twice – awin and a 2nd and ran into form last summer. All lookinggood for a shot at the winner's enclosure. Win bet 5/1 and place beton exchanges tomorrow.


    Finished at last - except I may have another look at Jack's Point in the 450 and Kripke in teh 400.

    A wise man once told me, the more bets you have, the more losers you have so I'm in big doo dah tomorrow[​IMG]

    Typed it up and copied and pasted - no idea what some of the words have run together but i can't be arsed to sort it
    Kegman and Punter like this.
  16. Punter

    Punter Moderator

    Messages:
    7,791
    Good Luck mate

    I think differently, i always think if you shoot enough bullets you're sure to hit a few.
    And i bet you'll have a profit with these picks :thumb
  17. Kegman

    Kegman Moderator

    Messages:
    2,550
    Good luck. I'll have another read and look at horses but I'll defo be backing a couple if them so accept my appologies now.
  18. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    11,575
    I've plumped for Beauty of Deira in the 215 at 2/1. The logic is that the other one is drifting in the betting which, if I had only one horse in the race, wouldn't put me off but as I have a choice of two, I'll go for the one with the market confidence.

    Finalised decisions from above

    225 Corgi ew 5/1 4 places

    240 Rose of Kildare 9/1 4 places and Go Well Spicy small bet at 22/1 4 places

    355 If Zahee drifts to 5/1 I'll be backing it each way

    415 Great Ambassador out to 13/2 ew bet

    Adding ew Jack's point in the 450. 16/1 available but taking the 14/1 with 4 places
  19. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    11,575
    Jm Jackson – Didn't see the race but beat the newcomer that all the money was for which went on odds on fav but didn't beat the other one and finished 2nd


    Incredulous – Stepped up on class and flopped like a floppy thing


    Leo Minor and Kamikaze Lord – No show


    Beauty of Deira beaten by the one for all the money. Morning Duel nowhere.


    It's gonna be a long day

    :ohwell
  20. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

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    11,575
    Think I've been done on the line in the 240 in a photo

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