Discussion in 'Horse Racing & Greyhound Tips' started by ONEDUNME, Apr 25, 2016.
Going on a while - I'd settle for the dead heat
Dead heat it is
Won today at 16/1. Backed it at 28/1
I liked Roman Stone’s first run- ran green but showed promise. Has drifted from 5/2 to 4/1 but that often happens after only one run and it doesn’t stop em winning, just neans something else is fancied. 615 carlisle
hexagon just about to go off in 245 race 15/8 will save this now
cape cavelli only evens in 415 but looks like a 2 horse race
Diocletion 445 F Llas
Both won, first one drifted to 5/1. Not before time a couple of winners.
135 Deauville Poetry each way at 12/1
315 Beverley. It doesn't take a genius to pick out a 5/4 fav in a four runner race but all the money is for the third fav Proper Beau (currently 7/2). I can well understand it being fancied as I picked it out as one to watch when it overcame the wide draw to win on its debut. For me, it's a match between this one and the fav Harry Love. I'd take either of these over the second fav which won last time in a nursery handicap but goes up for that and hasn't been consistent enough for me to show that it can handle that rise. Proper Beau and Harry love both have theirs first handicap mark which, as I've said before, is pretty much a guess. PB's mark may well be lenient (the market support suggests that some think it is) and it may romp home. If Harry Love hadn't been in the race, I have no doubt I would be backing it but HL has been given 2lbs less and hasn't put a foot wrong yet and has shown a battling attitude that I love to see in progressive young horses. Backed at 5/4 with BOG so I'm happy for it to drift as much as it likes
425 Beverley, Lady Scatterly has no wins from 8 runs and is locked in a battle with the handicapper (and there's only one winner there). Too genuine for her own good. The handicapper has dropped her a pound and the unique set up of Beverley racecourse is not one that suits all horses (it's a fucking long drawn-out hill up to the finish as anyone who's walked in from town will know) but this horse has ran once there and finished a creditable second. 4/1 win bet and a place bet on the exchanges for me
Sticking with beverley, 500 Jomrock. Again, first time handicapper so pretty much a "had the handicapper got it right or is the horse progressing with every run?" type scenario. Put in as fav (drifting - currently 9/4) at distance and on a course it hasn't ran at before? What could possibly go wrong? By the way, the RacingUk website says that it wears a hood for the first time today. That's bollocks. It ran in one last time out at Doncaster.
Running out of time now but my other two bets of the day are King of Naples ew 11/1 beverley 530 and Harrovian 300 goodwood 7/4 fav and, just to drive QC over the hedge, a horse at Saint Malo at 630 called Sailing Home when the prices come out.
Good luck to anyone who's having a bet
Didn't watch much racing today but I did see Thomas Shelby win. The handicapper who gave it an opening rating of 115 must have thought he'd dropped a right bollock when it was pulled up last time out at a rating 7lb lower but he was proved right today when, 12lbs lower than its chase debut, on better ground than last time and on a right-handed track which I'm convinced helped, it went and hosed up at 20/1 having drifted like a barge before the off.
I have two I'm interested in tomorrow. 115 Musselbro El Picador was 2nd on its hurdle debut, well clear of the rest and I'll be on it each way at 7/1
The other one is Where's Mick in the 345 at Newcastle. Traded 1.08 in running last time out before being run down at the finish. Drop back in trip isn't a worry but I'm not sure the change of jockey (as good as he is) is a positive. 9/2 each way.
Great shout with El Picador ODM, clear winner
Nice place with the other, too.
Judging by today's results, it's almost time to restart this thread. Temping as it is, I won't aftertime but the signs are there that it's time to start flagging some up again. Obviously I'm not naive enough to thing that a good day yesterday signals a list of sure fire winners and I won't start counting the profit and loss in this thread until nearer to turf season but today has convinced me to put a few up for consideration for the all weather until then.
Two days away so who knows what kind of price they will be or even if they will run but I'll be looking at a few on Friday, Pepper Bay (630 Southwell) and Woodrow (715 Dundalk) along with one that has won for me at 4/1 but disappointed since and is entered into a claiming race on Friday , Narynkol (715 Dundalk).
Not really my normal MO so would be better suited in a daily racing thread but, as we don't really have one, I'll post this in here for tomorrow 17th March.
I quite liked Ambien Hill's run on 6th of January after dropping down in class. Ran a stinker last time which the ground can't be blamed for. Possibility the initial handicap mark was a tad too high but dropped 4lb for tomorrow's outing and there has been money for it tonight so perhaps Harry Cobden can do what Jonjo couldn't last time. 510 Taunton. 10/3 currently. Traded 1.41 in running when only ending up third on 6th of Jan so possibly one to put a short-priced lay in to get the stakes back if it does the same (if that's your thing).
The same can be said of Mcalpine in the 300 Down Royal in that, that has also twice traded around 4/6 and flattered to deceive. Not one to back if the ground is heavy but, otherwise possibly worth an each way bet at 10/1 with a lay at evens to get the stake back.
And could tomorrow finally be the day that Shakeytry breaks its duck over fences? Has placed in four out of five attempts so far (fell on the other one) and could well have been given a winnable mark on it's first time in a handicap. A skinny 2/1 but I'll be on it anyway in the 500 Wexford. As is often the case when betting in Ireland, I fear Rachel Blackmore but her horse Niccolai is on the drift so fingers crossed that the market has it right on this occasion.
The flat is back and with it, four horses that I had previously entered into my tracker. The bad news is that three out of four of them are in the same race. Oh well.
The first is odd on in the 135 race, Mutasaamy but is drifting so may well return at even money which would be a good start. 20pts staked
The others are all in the 505 race.
Much as it pains me, I'm having to discard Ice Pyramid (currently 3/1) because I can't back them all and the others are each way prices so, it being the first day and with so much uncertainty , I will have to go for the each way shots.
Bo Samraan is currently 12/1 (four places) so 5 pts ew on that one
December Second has been backed in from 9/1 to 6s in most places but Ladbrokes are still going 7/1 so 6pts ew on that one
Total staked on the day 42 pts
42 pts lost
Plenty of entries tomorrow . This morning's updates to last night's post in bold
100 Latin Knight 5pts ew 5/1 Never in race -10
135 Junderstand 20/1 currently. Will place bet tomorrow 5pts ew, looking for 4 places
5pt ew 4 places 20/1. 5th -10
210 Three in this so will back two and the other will win
Amplify 5pt ew 17/2 (was 10/1 around 230 this aft) Couldn't get into the race but ran on well at end. A race to ignore -10
Benny and the Jets 5pt ew 10/1. WON +60
The other which I will back if one of the above doesn't run is Lihou (currently 10/1 and drifing_
355 Only three races between the two of them. Not surprised that one is fav but the other could surprise
First Receiver 10pts 15/8 WON +18.75
Photograph currently best priced 15/2 but not placing yet in case it's bigger in the morning
Certainly is bigger - about double lol . Using betfair for 2pts at 25 and 3pts for 3 places at 3.5 -5
505 London Eye 10 pt win 3/1. Ran prominently and faded. Ignore run -10
+33.75 profit at Kempton
1245 Siglo Six Looking for 5pts ew 6/1 4 places tomorrow
Taken 11/2 4 places with BOG.No excuses -10
155 One Hart Currently as big as 25/1 but will back tomorrow ew for 4 places
Taken 16/1 4 places 5pts ew. Prominent - faded -10
230 True Mason 14/1 with bet365 but, again, waiting for 4 places BOG tomorrow
Big mistake. Now down to 8/1 6pts ew 4 places. Third poor run on the bounce. Maybe it just isn't very good. -10
525 Billy No Mates 20/1. waiting for 4 places prices tomorrow
2 Non runners but Skybet still paying 4 places 5pt ew 12/1. No lack of effort but finished about 6th. Possibly needs a drop in the weights -10
600 Three in this again
Cape Cavalli Was value when 11/2 this afternoon but not so much now at 4/1. 10pt win. Annoyed that I missed the ew price as dead heated for 2nd. -10
Succellus 5pt ew 8/1 4 places -10
The other is Society Red which my go well at a big price if we managed to get any big field handicaps this summer/autumn. 5th 10/1 no bet
60pts lost at Newcastle
Loss of 26.25 pts on the day
Loss over 2 days 68.25 points
Three in this so, again, I will put one aside and it is the shortest priced one of the three, Celestran, currently 3/1 which I will back to win if either of the other two are taken out
School of Thought 5pts ew 14/1 4 places
Naizagai 5pt ew 13/2 4 places
Dandizette 5pt ew 16/1 3 places (may be shorter tomorrow)
135 Kempton Pink Flamingo 5pts ew 25/1 3 places
210 Kempton Sun Bear 20pt win 5/4
355 Kempton Three that I'll look at tomorrow as all are drifting right now. Posted 20/1 Audarya 12/1 and Shepherd Market 33/1
415 Kempton Maydanny 20 pts 11/4 win
10pt win Two Bids 7/2
Update of 355
Audarya 5pt ew 10/1 4 places
Posted 5pt ew 25/1 4 places
Nightmare of a day. Bring on the jumps season
Nah, joking. Too many decent horses all in the same races. It's like the flat's version of the Cheltenham festival this week
Maydanny wins at 4/1 returning 100 points. That'll help but very much a let off kind of day
Third losing day on the trot, 110 pts staked, 100 returned. Down 78.25 pts overall
Fraternity 5pts ew 10/1 3 places
Blausee 5pt ew 11/1 4 places but no BOG]
355 Newcastle 1/5 4 places
5pt ew A Ali 4/1
5pt ew Glasvegas 50/1
505 Newcastle 4 places 1/5
10pts ew Militia 10/1
5pt ew Cool Spirit 40/1
Cool Spirit 10pt ew 13/2 4 places no BOG
555 Newm 4 places 1/5
Rathbone 6pt ew 9/1
Lyndon B 5pt ew 25/1
Jacks Point 5pt ew 25/1
Inclyne 12pt win 7/2
Heart of Soul 2pt ew 25/2 4 places
Cracking shout with Jack's Point.