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Over 1.5 acca's

Discussion in 'System Proofing' started by jtw1, Feb 11, 2012.

  1. jtw1

    jtw1 Member

    Messages:
    610
    Now i now some punters don't like accumulators but i hope the strike rate will enable us to show a profit [​IMG]

    This has not been backtested so we're diving in at the deep end .

    Using soccerstats.com i'm selecting teams who have home scoring averages above 2.99 who are playing opponents who have away scoring averages of over 2.99.

    Scoring averages are based on goals scored / conceded at home /away.

    So , simply put , we are selecting match's where there 'should' be a greater chance of over 1.5 goals being scored [ah theory's , great on paper ain't they [​IMG]]

    I will be keeping it to 4/5 timers so here's todays picks - the numbers after each team are their scoring average.

    BOLTON [3.25] v WIGAN [3.08]
    BARNSLEY [3.33] v BIRMINGHAM [3.21]
    SHEFFIELD UTD [3.50] v WYCOMBE [3.42]
    LYON [3.20] v CAEN [3.00]
    GENK [3.25] v LOKEREN [3.33]

    Acca pays 2.86 on Bet365

    Starting Bank - 100pts

    Stake 10pts
  2. jtw1

    jtw1 Member

    Messages:
    610
    Nearly a perfect start today [​IMG]

    BOLTON [3.25] v WIGAN [3.08] 1-2
    BARNSLEY [3.33] v BIRMINGHAM [3.21] postponed
    SHEFFIELD UTD [3.50] v WYCOMBE [3.42] 3-0
    LYON [3.20] v CAEN [3.00] 1-2
    GENK [3.25] v LOKEREN [3.33] 0-1 [​IMG]


    Will also keep an eye on the possibility of looking at the over 2.5 markets if these type of results continue.

    There's nothing for tomorrow .
  3. jtw1

    jtw1 Member

    Messages:
    610
    Bank - 90pts

    Decided to have a bit of leeway with the Away teams average , going to have a lower limit of 2.92 which will not be lowered any further.

    4 Games Tues + Fri
    -------------------

    PRESTON [3.64] v HARTLEPOOL [3.00]
    CARLISLE [3.50] v TRANMERE [2.92]
    NORTHAMPTON [3.29] v AFC WIMBLEDON [2.92]
    HEERENVEEN [4.00] v NAC [3.20]

    10pt acca returns 21.80pts from bet365
    Radoslav likes this.
  4. jtw1

    jtw1 Member

    Messages:
    610
    PRESTON [3.64] v HARTLEPOOL [3.00] 1-0
    CARLISLE [3.50] v TRANMERE [2.92] 0-0
    NORTHAMPTON [3.29] v AFC WIMBLEDON [2.92] 1-0
    HEERENVEEN [4.00] v NAC [3.20]

    Now there's times when betting gets you down , doubts set in and a period of depression [hours rather than days ] can kick in .....but now and then you get results like this and you just have to laugh and remember those wise words --

    SHIT HAPPENS !

    Roll on , people , Roll on [​IMG]
  5. jtw1

    jtw1 Member

    Messages:
    610
    10pt 4-some
    ------------
    LEEDS [[3.00] v DONCASTER [3.07] odds 1.25
    ACC STANLEY [3.07] v PLYMOUTH [3.00] 1.22
    DAG and REDBRIDGE [3.07] v CHELTENHAM [3.13] 1.22
    PORT VALE [3.27] v GILLINGHAM [3.47] 1.25

    10pt 5-some
    ------------
    MONS [3.58] v GENK [3.67] 1.18
    HAMBURG [3.00] v W BREMEN [3.27] 1.24
    SCHALKE [3.75] v WOLFSBURG [3.60] 1.2
    PALERMO [3.64] v LAZIO [3.18] 1.25
    DUNFERMLINE [3.92] v INVERNESS [3.23] 1.27
  6. Radoslav

    Radoslav Active Member

    Messages:
    177
    First one already cashed in .... Congrats !
  7. jtw1

    jtw1 Member

    Messages:
    610
    Cheers mate :thumb

    10pt 4-some
    ------------
    LEEDS [[3.00] v DONCASTER [3.07] odds 1.25 - 3-2 [​IMG]
    ACC STANLEY [3.07] v PLYMOUTH [3.00] 1.22 - 0-4 [​IMG]
    DAG and REDBRIDGE [3.07] v CHELTENHAM [3.13] 1.22 - 0-5 [​IMG]
    PORT VALE [3.27] v GILLINGHAM [3.47] 1.25 - 2-1 [​IMG]

    10pt 5-some
    ------------
    MONS [3.58] v GENK [3.67] 1.18 - 1-2 [​IMG]
    HAMBURG [3.00] v W BREMEN [3.27] 1.24 - 1-3 [​IMG]
    SCHALKE [3.75] v WOLFSBURG [3.60] 1.2
    PALERMO [3.64] v LAZIO [3.18] 1.25
    DUNFERMLINE [3.92] v INVERNESS [3.23] 1.27 - 1-1 [​IMG]
    4 timer comes in for our first win [​IMG] and with 3 up so far in the 5-some things looking rosier ..[​IMG]
    Radoslav likes this.
  8. jtw1

    jtw1 Member

    Messages:
    610
    10pt 4-some
    ------------
    LEEDS [[3.00] v DONCASTER [3.07] odds 1.25 - 3-2 [​IMG]
    ACC STANLEY [3.07] v PLYMOUTH [3.00] 1.22 - 0-4 [​IMG]
    DAG and REDBRIDGE [3.07] v CHELTENHAM [3.13] 1.22 - 0-5 [​IMG]
    PORT VALE [3.27] v GILLINGHAM [3.47] 1.25 - 2-1 [​IMG]

    10pt 5-some
    ------------
    MONS [3.58] v GENK [3.67] 1.18 - 1-2 [​IMG]
    HAMBURG [3.00] v W BREMEN [3.27] 1.24 - 1-3 [​IMG]
    SCHALKE [3.75] v WOLFSBURG [3.60] 1.2 - 4-0 [​IMG]
    PALERMO [3.64] v LAZIO [3.18] 1.25 - 5-1 [​IMG]
    DUNFERMLINE [3.92] v INVERNESS [3.23] 1.27 - 1-1 [​IMG]

    Returns from Acca 1 = 23.26pts
    Returns from Acca 2 = 27.87pts
  9. Radoslav

    Radoslav Active Member

    Messages:
    177
    Great job buddy... Its a pity that Rangers bet didnt come in so we would have had a sweep this week...:)
  10. jtw1

    jtw1 Member

    Messages:
    610
    Only one game fits the criteria mid-week , BARNSLEY [3.25] v BIRMINGHAM [3.21]

    Obviously the odds are restrictive Over 1.5 goals-wise but after 8 from 9 over the weekend coming in at Over 2.5 [11/17 in total] it could be worthwhile taking the 2.02 on Over 2.5 .
    So not a system bet but taking an interest on those Over 2.5 odds .
  11. jtw1

    jtw1 Member

    Messages:
    610
  12. jtw1

    jtw1 Member

    Messages:
    610
    CHELSEA [3.83] v BOLTON [3.17] @ 1.16
    MORECAMBE [3.00] v SOUTHEND [3.63] @ 1.25
    GENT [3.31] v MONS [3.54] @ 1.14
    B MUNICH [3.36] v SCHALKE [3.30] @ 1.18
    PSV [4.30] v FEYENOORD [3.18] @ 1.12
    RODA [3.74] v DE GRAAFSCHAP [3.20] @ 1.14
    KILMARNOCK [3.15] v HIBS [3.31] @ 1.3
    KARABUKSPOR [3.08] v ANKARAGUCU [3.36] @ 1.12

    Quite a few short-odds in the selections this week-end so i propose going for an 8-timer [​IMG] which returns around 3.7 [bet365]

    Those of a nervous disposition would be advised to leave out Morecambe and Kilmarnock for a mere 6-timer [​IMG]
  13. Radoslav

    Radoslav Active Member

    Messages:
    177
    I cant find over 1.5 goals for the last match buddy... Are you sure that bet365 offers over 1.5 goals for KARABUKSPOR [3.08] v ANKARAGUCU [3.36] @ 1.12 ???
  14. jtw1

    jtw1 Member

    Messages:
    610
    According to betchecker they are but , like yourself , when i went onto bet365 to place the bet i see there's nothing quoted !!
    I assume the odds will go up on the main site tomorrow :crossfingers
  15. jtw1

    jtw1 Member

    Messages:
    610
    CHELSEA [3.83] v BOLTON [3.17] @ 1.16 3-0 [​IMG]
    MORECAMBE [3.00] v SOUTHEND [3.63] @ 1.25 1-0 [​IMG]
    GENT [3.31] v MONS [3.54] @ 1.14 2-0 [​IMG]
    B MUNICH [3.36] v SCHALKE [3.30] @ 1.18 2-0 [​IMG]
    PSV [4.30] v FEYENOORD [3.18] @ 1.12 3-2 [​IMG]
    RODA [3.74] v DE GRAAFSCHAP [3.20] @ 1.14 0-2 [​IMG]
    KILMARNOCK [3.15] v HIBS [3.31] @ 1.3 1-3 [​IMG]
    KARABUKSPOR [3.08] v ANKARAGUCU [3.36] @ 1.12 3-2 [​IMG]

    Despite the odds being quoted on oddschecker i couldn't see where they were available on bet365 for the Over's in the KARABURKSPOR but Morecambe buggered the whole thing up anyway [although the suggested 6 timer came in]
  16. jtw1

    jtw1 Member

    Messages:
    610
    MAN CITY [3.54] v BOLTON [3.15] @ 1.08
    SHEFF UTD [3.41] v OLDHAM [3.00] @ 1.22
    BARNET [3.20] v ROTHERHAM [3.41] @ 1.28
    MONS [3.54] v G.B.A [3.77] @ 1.23
    PALERMO [3.83] v AC MILAN [3.08] @ 1.21
    BARCELONA [4.50] v SP GIJON [3.50] @ 1.08
    VVV VENLO [3.00] v NAC [3.00] @ 1.21
    AZ ALKMAAR [3.18] v HERACLES [3.45] @ 1.14

    Sun
    ---
    AJAX [3.9] v RODA [4.09] @ 1.08
    FEYENOORD [3.45] v GRONINGEN [3.45] @ 1.15
    PSV [4.36] v TWENTE [3.8] @ 1.22

    As you can see there's a fair selection this weekend and i would suggest a 10pt 7-team acca MAN CITY / BARCELONA / AZ / AJAX / FEYENOORD / VVV / PALERMO .
    Also a 10pt 4 timer SHEFF UTD / BARNET / MONS / PSV.
  17. jtw1

    jtw1 Member

    Messages:
    610
    MAN CITY [3.54] v BOLTON [3.15] 2-0
    SHEFF UTD [3.41] v OLDHAM [3.00] 2-3
    BARNET [3.20] v ROTHERHAM [3.41] 1-1
    MONS [3.54] v G.B.A [3.77] 4-2
    PALERMO [3.83] v AC MILAN [3.08] 0-4
    BARCELONA [4.50] v SP GIJON [3.50] 3-1
    VVV VENLO [3.00] v NAC [3.00] @ 1.21 2-1
    AZ ALKMAAR [3.18] v HERACLES [3.45] 3-1

    AJAX [3.9] v RODA [4.09] 4-1
    FEYENOORD [3.45] v GRONINGEN [3.45] 1-0
    PSV [4.36] v TWENTE [3.8] 2-6

    As you can see there's a fair selection this weekend and i would suggest a 10pt 7-team acca MAN CITY / BARCELONA / AZ / AJAX / FEYENOORD [​IMG] / VVV / PALERMO . 10pt loss
    Also a 10pt 4 timer SHEFF UTD / BARNET / MONS / PSV. [​IMG] Returns 23.43pts


    I'm happy with the way this systems going but refinement is on the cards .
    What i'm looking at is posting all selections but narrowing down it down to one 4 or 5 timer for one bet , probably the selections with the best odds .

    If anyone out there has any ideas please feel free to comment [​IMG]
  18. jtw1

    jtw1 Member

    Messages:
    610
    Tuesday -

    PRESTON [3.25] v CHESTERFIELD [3.29] @ 1.28

    AFC WIMBLEDON [3.50] v PLYMOUTH [3.00] @ 1.25

    PORT VALE [3.19] v BURTON[3.47] @ 1.25

    10pt treble returns 20pts [bet365]

    Will update all totals after this bet.
  19. jtw1

    jtw1 Member

    Messages:
    610
    PRESTON [3.25] v CHESTERFIELD [3.29] @ 1.28 0-0 [​IMG]

    AFC WIMBLEDON [3.50] v PLYMOUTH [3.00] @ 1.25 1-2 [​IMG]

    PORT VALE [3.19] v BURTON[3.47] @ 1.25 3-0 [​IMG]


    Here's the % of Unders for the leagues i've been selecting from coupled with the top 4 recorded scores this season -

    BELGIUM
    -------
    Over 1.5 goals 75.4%
    Over 2.5 goals 53.1%
    Over 3.5 goals 37.9%

    EPL
    ---
    Over 1.5 goals 79.9%
    Over 2.5 goals 55.4%
    Over 3.5 goals 30.9%

    ENG CHAMP
    ---------
    Over 1.5 goals 71.1%
    Over 2.5 goals 47.7%
    Over 3.5 goals 25.4%

    ENG L1
    ------
    Over 1.5 goals 75.5%
    Over 2.5 goals 49.0%
    Over 3.5 goals 28.7%

    ENG L2
    ------
    Over 1.5 goals 76.8%
    Over 2.5 goals 49.9%
    Over 3.5 goals 27.1%

    FRANCE [Ligue 1]
    ------
    Over 1.5 goals 74.2%
    Over 2.5 goals 42.7%
    Over 3.5 goals 24.2%

    GERMANY [Bund 1]
    -------
    Over 1.5 goals 78.2%
    Over 2.5 goals 52.8%
    Over 3.5 goals 32.4%

    HOLLAND [Eredivise]
    -------
    Over 1.5 goals 83.3%
    Over 2.5 goals 60.5%
    Over 3.5 goals 43.3%

    ITALY [Serie A]
    -----
    Over 1.5 goals 71.2%
    Over 2.5 goals 47.3%
    Over 3.5 goals 26.2%


    PORTUGAL
    --------
    Over 1.5 goals 71.4%
    Over 2.5 goals 51.2%
    Over 3.5 goals 28.0%

    SCOTLAND [Spl]
    --------
    Over 1.5 goals 71.8%
    Over 2.5 goals 48.3%
    Over 3.5 goals 27.0%

    SPAIN [La Liga]
    -----
    Over 1.5 goals 71.2%
    Over 2.5 goals 54.0%
    Over 3.5 goals 31.2%

    TURKEY
    ------
    Over 1.5 goals 70.9%
    Over 2.5 goals 52.5%
    Over 3.5 goals 28.4%

    And here's the stats for league's i've not considered but could well be worth further investigation ! --

    DENMARK
    -------
    Over 1.5 goals 80.7%
    Over 2.5 goals 51.8%
    Over 3.5 goals 28.9%

    GERMANY [Bund 2]
    -------
    Over 1.5 goals 81.4%
    Over 2.5 goals 54.0%
    Over 3.5 goals 35.3%

    HOLLAND [2nd Div]
    -------
    Over 1.5 goals 83.6%
    Over 2.5 goals 68.0%
    Over 3.5 goals 47.1%

    I will introduce those leagues this weekend , providing odds are available
  20. jtw1

    jtw1 Member

    Messages:
    610
    Ok , lets tread carefully this week as there is a varitable barrow-load of games to be considered [mostly due to bringing in the Dutch 2nd Div]

    NOTE - The figures in brackets are the total goals scored by the home/away teams in their last 4 matches [in theory showing us which sides are in good , RECENT , goalscoring form ] as it may pay to avoid recent low scorers [ eg those under 4 ]

    Friday
    ------
    Eredivise -
    RODA 3.58 v VVV 4.0 @ 1.12 [3-11]

    Dutch 2nd -
    ALMERE 3.50 v MAASTRICHT 3.42 @ 1.17 [4-8]

    VOLENDAM 4.08 v DORDRECHT 3.17 @ 1.15 [5-5]

    HELMOND 3.33 v TOP OSS 3.77 @ 1.14 [8-5]

    TELSTAR 3.08 v GO AHEAD 3.50 @ 1.175 [3-13]


    SATURDAY
    --------
    Dutch 2nd -
    FORTUNA 3.08 v SPARTA 3.42 @ 1.19 [8-11]

    WOLVES 3.46 v BLACKBURN @ 1.22 @ 1.22 [4-5]

    PETERBORO 3.69 v BLACKPOOL 3.92 @ 1.2 [4-6]

    CARLISLE 3.35 v BURY 3.17 @ 1.22 [5-6]

    FRANKFURT 3.00 v 1860MUNICH 3.27 @ 1.22 [7-6]

    HEERENVEEN 3.75 v EXCELSIOR 3.08 @ 1.07 [5-2]

    MALAGA 3.33 v LEVANTE 3.00 @ 1.25 [11-10]

    GALATASARAY 3.29 v G'BIRLIGI 3.29 @ 1.16 [11-7]


    SUNDAY
    ------
    MAN UTD 4.00 v WEST BROM 3.00 @ 1.16 [10-11]

    D DRESDEN 3.42 v INGOLSTAT 3.33 @ 1.25 [6-6]

    DE GRAAFSCHAP 3.36 v AZ ALKMAAR 3.08 @ 1.14 [4-8]


    MONDAY
    ------
    CAMBUUR 3.92 v AGOVV 3.83 @ 1.105 [10-11]

    ARSENAL 3.08 v NEWCASTLE 3.23 @ 1.18 [16-5]

    TRABZONSPOR 3.60 v SIVASSPOR 4.00 @ 1.18 [8-6]


    Now comes the hard bit , which to put the money on!!!

    I think that the 6 Dutch 2nd div sides could well be worth an acca all to themselves , don't forget that this is a league where over 83% of all games this season have ended Over 1.5 goals.
    TELSTAR are a concern scoring only 3 in the last 4 but GO AHEAD could well negate that worry as 13 goals in 4 is a quite impressive stat !!

    10pts on all 6 returns 23.70pts [bet365]


    For those who want to stick to a double-your-money bet consider WOLVES/CARLISLE/FRANKFURT/MALAGA which returns 22.70 for a 10pt stake.
    Based on League stats / recent goals and odds , these are pretty strong looking imo.

    If you want a more 'adventurous' return then the above 4 plus GALATASARAY/MAN UTD/D DRESDEN will give you back 38.18pts to your initial 10pts .

    Good luck [​IMG] [we'll need it [​IMG]]