Over 1.5 acca's

Hey buddy I wanna follow but i cant see odds for over 1.5 goals for Holland Jupier League at bet365 :(((

Funny you say that jtw as I stick a blind bet on the O1.5 accy and the O2.5 accy every Friday night when the bulk of their games are played.

The O1.5 accy lands more often than it should (it won last week).



And the O2.5 accy will drop in every now and again (I've had winners at 40/1, 35/1, 32/1...).

If anything, it's a nice fun bet for a Friday night. Lots of pings on the live score service!

It's here mate.

Unlucky this time Wayne and thats for helping out Radoslav , it took me a couple of looks to find the odds on 365 .

5/5 for the system tonight , lets hope for the same tomorrow

Eredivise -
RODA 3.58 v VVV 4.0 @ 1.12 [3-11] 3-1

Dutch 2nd -
ALMERE 3.50 v MAASTRICHT 3.42 @ 1.17 [4-8] 1-2

VOLENDAM 4.08 v DORDRECHT 3.17 @ 1.15 [5-5] 1-1

HELMOND 3.33 v TOP OSS 3.77 @ 1.14 [8-5] 2-1

TELSTAR 3.08 v GO AHEAD 3.50 @ 1.175 [3-13] 0-2


SATURDAY
--------
Dutch 2nd -
FORTUNA 3.08 v SPARTA 3.42 @ 1.19 [8-11] 1-0

WOLVES 3.46 v BLACKBURN @ 1.22 @ 1.22 [4-5] 0-2

PETERBORO 3.69 v BLACKPOOL 3.92 @ 1.2 [4-6] 3-1

CARLISLE 3.35 v BURY 3.17 @ 1.22 [5-6] 4-1

FRANKFURT 3.00 v 1860MUNICH 3.27 @ 1.22 [7-6] 3-1

HEERENVEEN 3.75 v EXCELSIOR 3.08 @ 1.07 [5-2] 4-2

MALAGA 3.33 v LEVANTE 3.00 @ 1.25 [11-10] 1-0

GALATASARAY 3.29 v G'BIRLIGI 3.29 @ 1.16 [11-7] 2-0


SUNDAY
------
MAN UTD 4.00 v WEST BROM 3.00 @ 1.16 [10-11] 2-0

D DRESDEN 3.42 v INGOLSTAT 3.33 @ 1.25 [6-6] 0-0

DE GRAAFSCHAP 3.36 v AZ ALKMAAR 3.08 @ 1.14 [4-8] 0-2



Decent strike rate imo but unfortunately damage was done to both bets by FORTUNA and MALAGA .

I've been considering how to try and eliminate these and hopefully next week should see the posting of selections using a new set of criteria , these will be -

1 - How strong the League involved is with regards to Over 1.5 goals , e.g they must have a % of Overs of 75%+ , which at the moment will be BELGIUM , EPL , ENG 1 , ENG 2 , BUNDESLIGA 1 , BUNDESLIGA 2 , EREDIVISE , DUTCH 2nd and DENMARK SAS.
* The FRENCH LIGUE 1 may be included after todays results are known.

2 - The selections will then be sorted by how many games in the past 4 league games they have scored [ as opposed to how many they have scored in those 4] with those not scoring in 0,1 or 2 from the 4 being removed .

3 - The average goals scored either at home or away [whichever applies ] MUST BE OVER 1.0


I'm hopeful these criteria will give us 4-6 selections each week to have a wager on .

I will , however , continue to highlight EVERY game where both teams have scoring average's over 3.00 so as to keep an open mind but the above criteria will run until the end of the season

and MONDAYS all come before 2 are even finished !!

MONDAY
------
CAMBUUR 3.92 v AGOVV 3.83 @ 1.105 [10-11] 2-0 with 15 mins to play

ARSENAL 3.08 v NEWCASTLE 3.23 @ 1.18 [16-5] 1-1 after 15 mins

TRABZONSPOR 3.60 v SIVASSPOR 4.00 @ 1.18 [8-6] 2-1 ft

Firstly sincere apologies for not posting earlier , due to work , Cheltenham and other silly diversions .

Because of these i failed to post the selections for this weekend which included 5 games played tonight......and of course all 5 finished Over 1.5 goals .
Nevertheless here's the list in full , with tonight's scores added in .

The teams are listed followed by the scoring average's , how may games from the last 4 in which the team has scored and finally the average goals scored either at home or away [whichever applies]

AGOVV [3.77 , 3/4 , 1.46] v FORTUNA [ 3.75 , 4/4 , 1.58] odds = 1.14 2-4
DORDRECHT [3.62 , 3/4 , 2.15 ] v EMMEN [3.23 , 3/4 , 0.77] 1.14 3-0
EINDHOVEN [ 3.00 , 3/4 , 2.0] v CAMBUUR [ 3.31 , 4/4 1.54 ] 1.18 1-1
GO AHEAD [3.92 , 3/4 , 2.46] v WILLEM [3.31 , 3/4 , 1.77] 1.16 1-3
FC OSS [4.50 , 3/4 , 2.33] v ZWOLLE [3.08 , 4/4 , 2.00] 1.16

FRANKFURT [3.00 , 4/4 , 1.0] v D DRESDEN [3.50 , 3/4 1.42] 1.16 3-0

COLCHESTER [3.17 , 3/4 , 1.66] v HUDDERSFIELD [3.50 , 4/4 , 2.25] 1.25
ACCRINGTON [3.19 , 3/4 , 1.62 ] v NORTHAMPTON [3.06 , 4/4 , 1.31 ] 1.25

DORTMUND [3.33 , 3/4 , 2.66] v W BREMEN [3.15 , 2/4 , 1.15] 1.16
HAMBURG [ 3.15 , 3/4 , 1.23] v FREIBURG [4.08 , 2/4 , 1.15 ] 1.22

TWENTE [ 3.67 , 4/4 , 2.75] v FEYENOORD [3.33 , 4/4 , 1.75] 1.16
UTRECHT [ 4.08 , 2/4 , 2.16] v GRONINGEN [3.25 , 2/4 , 0,83] 1.2
PSV [4.67 , 3/4 , 3.33] v HEERENVEEN [3.42 , 3/4 , 2.17] 1.11
AZ ALKMAAR [3.25 , 3/4 , 2.66] v NAC [3.00 , 3/4 , 0.92] 1.12

KOGE [3.44 , 4/4 , 1.22] v AALBORG [3.20 , 3/4 , 1.6] 1.28

Applying the new criteria removes DORTMUND , HAMBURG , UTRECHT [all v teams who have only scored in 2 of their last 4 matches ] and DORDRECHT who play EMMEN [ave home goals are only 0.77.

I suggest an acca on the remaining 6 , thats COLCHESTER , ACCRINGTON , TWENTE , PSV , FC OSS and KOGE [Denmark]

Dutch Div 2 O1.5 accy in again which paid about 7/2



And 2 goals off the 35/1 accy.

AGOVV [3.77 , 3/4 , 1.46] v FORTUNA [ 3.75 , 4/4 , 1.58] odds = 1.14 2-4
DORDRECHT [3.62 , 3/4 , 2.15 ] v EMMEN [3.23 , 3/4 , 0.77] 1.14 3-0
EINDHOVEN [ 3.00 , 3/4 , 2.0] v CAMBUUR [ 3.31 , 4/4 1.54 ] 1.18 1-1
GO AHEAD [3.92 , 3/4 , 2.46] v WILLEM [3.31 , 3/4 , 1.77] 1.16 1-3
FC OSS [4.50 , 3/4 , 2.33] v ZWOLLE [3.08 , 4/4 , 2.00] 1.16 1-0

FRANKFURT [3.00 , 4/4 , 1.0] v D DRESDEN [3.50 , 3/4 1.42] 1.16 3-0

COLCHESTER [3.17 , 3/4 , 1.66] v HUDDERSFIELD [3.50 , 4/4 , 2.25] 1.25 1-1
ACCRINGTON [3.19 , 3/4 , 1.62 ] v NORTHAMPTON [3.06 , 4/4 , 1.31 ] 1.25 2-1

DORTMUND [3.33 , 3/4 , 2.66] v W BREMEN [3.15 , 2/4 , 1.15] 1.16 1-0 [But no bet was advised so...
HAMBURG [ 3.15 , 3/4 , 1.23] v FREIBURG [4.08 , 2/4 , 1.15 ] 1.22 1-3

TWENTE [ 3.67 , 4/4 , 2.75] v FEYENOORD [3.33 , 4/4 , 1.75] 1.16 0-2
UTRECHT [ 4.08 , 2/4 , 2.16] v GRONINGEN [3.25 , 2/4 , 0,83] 1.2 3-1
PSV [4.67 , 3/4 , 3.33] v HEERENVEEN [3.42 , 3/4 , 2.17] 1.11 5-1
AZ ALKMAAR [3.25 , 3/4 , 2.66] v NAC [3.00 , 3/4 , 0.92] 1.12 0-0 [again no bet so ]

KOGE [3.44 , 4/4 , 1.22] v AALBORG [3.20 , 3/4 , 1.6] 1.28 1-1

Applying the new criteria removes DORTMUND , HAMBURG , UTRECHT [all v teams who have only scored in 2 of their last 4 matches ] and DORDRECHT who play EMMEN [ave home goals are only 0.77] and NAC [only 0.92 ave home goals]

I suggest an acca on the remaining 6 , thats COLCHESTER , ACCRINGTON , TWENTE , PSV , FC OSS and KOGE [Denmark]


Well you'd never believe it , one let us down !!!

I again must apologise for the late posting of the selections as i'm sure with a bit more use of the Friday games i think we'd be showing maybe a slight profit instead of a 10 pt loss to start us off.

On the plus side , unless we consider total luck as a factor , i did manage to find 2 of the 3 that lost .

Until the end of the season each bet will be placed to return just over double the stake .

So thats the bank on 90pts .

One other thing to note is that i won't be posting mid-week games

This weekend's selction will be posted by Thursday evening at the latest .

BOLTON [3.21 , 2/4 , 1.21] v BLACKBURN [3.79 , 3/4 , 1.43] No bet BOLTON only scored in 2/4 games
CHELSEA 3.57 , 3/4 , 2.21] v SPURS [3.07 , 3/4 , 1.57] @ 1.22

CRAWLEY [3.22 , 4/4 , 2.16] v ROTHERHAM [3.32 , 3/4 , 1.63] @ 1.25

MAINZ [3.23 , 4/4 , 1.23]v H BERLIN [3.08 , 1/4 , 1.00] @ 1.28 No bet BERLIN only scored 1/4 games

BOCHUM [3.00 , 2/4 , 1.46] v INGOLSTADT [3.08 , 3/4 , 0.85] @ 1.25 No bet both fail , Mainz only 2/4 scored ,Ingolstadt ave under 1.00]
D DRESDEN [3.15 , 2/4 , 1.92] v MUNICH 1860 [3.08 , 1/4 , 1.54] @ 1.22 No bet both fail last 4 games scored in.

HEERENVEEN [3.92 , 3/4 , 2.30] v DEN HAAG [4.00 , 1/4 , 1.15] @ 1.08 No bet DEN HAAG only 1/4 scored
DE GRAAFSCHAP [3.23 , 1/4 , 0.92] v FEYENOORD [3.23 , 4/4 , 1.77] @ 1.18 No bet DE GRAAFSCHAP only 1/4 scored
AJAX [3.92 , 4/4 , 2.83] v PSV [3.23 , 4/4 , 1.77] @ 1.16

ALMERE [3.46 , 3/4 , 1.92] v FC OSS [3.71 , 4./4 , 1.36] @ 1.115
VOLENDAM [3.92 , 3/4 , 2.23] v SPARTA [3.23 , 2/4 , 2/08] @ 1.175 No bet Sparta only scored in 2/4
ZWOLLE [3.62 , 3/4 , 2.61] v AGOVV [3.69 , 3/4 , 0.85] @ 1.11 [Over 2.0 goals] No bet Agovv ave under 1.00
HELMOND [3.31 , 4/4 , 1.69] v GO AHEAD [3.38 , 4/4 , 1.54] @ 1.175
WILLEM [3.00 , 3/4 , 1.84] v DORDRECHT [3.08 , 3/4 , 0.77] @ 1.16 No bet Dordrecht ave under 1.00

Well there's more rejected by the rules than left to bet on so it'll have to be a 5-timer ALMERE / HELMOND / AJAX / CRAWLEY / CHELSEA which pays 2.33 on bet365

Selections for this weekend are -

CARLISLE [3.26 , 3/4 , 1.84] v HUDDERSFIELD [3.33 , 4/4 , 2.17] @ 1.25
BLACKBURN [3.27 , 4/4 , 1.46] v MAN UTD [3.07 , 4/4 , 2.27] @1.18

LEVERKUSEN [3.0 , 3/4 , 1.61] v FREIBURG [4.08 , 3/4 , 1.31] @ 1.2
DORTMUND [3.15 , 3/4 , 2.53] v STUTTGART [3.08 , 3/4 , 1.46] @ 1.14

GRONINGEN [3.31 , 3/4 , 2.0] v HEERENVEEN [3.62 , 3/4 , 2.08] @ 1.14
TWENTE [ 3.54 , 3/4 , 2.53] v RODA [4/08 , 4/4 , 1.15] @ 1.11

FC OSS [4.23 , 4/4 , 2.23] v WILLEM [3.36 , 3/4 , 1.86] @ No odds from 365 yet
VOLENDAM [3.71 , 3/4 , 2.14] v ALMERE [3.36 , 3/4 , 1.36] @ No odds from 365 yet

HORSENS [3.00 , 3/4 , 1.5] v AALBORG [3.09 , 3/4 , 3.09] @ 1.3

CARLISLE [3.26 , 3/4 , 1.84] v HUDDERSFIELD [3.33 , 4/4 , 2.17] @ 1.25 2-1
BLACKBURN [3.27 , 4/4 , 1.46] v MAN UTD [3.07 , 4/4 , 2.27] @1.18 0-2

LEVERKUSEN [3.0 , 3/4 , 1.61] v FREIBURG [4.08 , 3/4 , 1.31] @ 1.2 0-2
DORTMUND [3.15 , 3/4 , 2.53] v STUTTGART [3.08 , 3/4 , 1.46] @ 1.14 4-4

GRONINGEN [3.31 , 3/4 , 2.0] v HEERENVEEN [3.62 , 3/4 , 2.08] @ 1.14 1-3
TWENTE [ 3.54 , 3/4 , 2.53] v RODA [4/08 , 4/4 , 1.15] @ 1.11 2-0

FC OSS [4.23 , 4/4 , 2.23] v WILLEM [3.36 , 3/4 , 1.86] 1-1
VOLENDAM [3.71 , 3/4 , 2.14] v ALMERE [3.36 , 3/4 , 1.36] 3-1

HORSENS [3.00 , 3/4 , 1.5] v AALBORG [3.09 , 3/4 , 3.09] @ 1.3 1-0 Yet again one game lets the system down !!

This weekend there is only 3 qualifying games -

CHELSEA [3.33 , 3/4 , 2.06] v WIGAN [3.00 , 4/4 , 1.00] @ 1.16
MAN U [3.67 , 4/4 , 2.66] v QPR [3.00 , 4/4 , 1.07] @ 1.12
ALMERE [3.57 , 4/4 , 2.00] v GO AHEAD [3.57 , 4/4 , 1.5] @ 1.14

Thats spurred me on to take up Lorro's challenge about finding a way to incorporate the UNDER 3.5 goals market .
Still using soccerstats.com i've changed the criteria from that which i've used in the Over 1.5 section .
Here i'm looking at the Trends scetion of the leagues and concentrating those home sides who have a home average of 1.00 and UNDER who are playing against teams who have away averages of 1.07 and UNDER , the total number when added together has to be 2.0 or Under.
The theory being simply teams who don't score many at home against teams who don't score many away from home ...simplesssss.

Argentina - ARSENAL [1.00] v OLIMPO [0.50] Under 3.5 @ 1.25

Eng Champ - NOTTS FOREST [0.95] v BRISTOL CITY [0.70] @ 1.33

Eng L2 - HEREFORD [0.95] v PLYMOUTH [1.05] @ 1.22

France 2 - AMIENS [0.80] v METZ [0.53] @ 1.16
MONACO [1.00] v NANTES [0.80] @ 1.22

Serie A - CESENA [0.79] v BOLOGNA [1.07] @ 1.22

Mexico - PUEBLA [0.71] v TOLUCA [1.00] @ 1.3
PUMAS [0.67] v PACHUCA [1.00] @ 1.25
SAN LUIS [0.67] v JAGUARES [1.00] @ 1.275

Spain - GETAFE [1.07] v SP GIJON [0.93] @ 1.3

If nothing else the odds are better than the Over 1.5's !!



So here we go , remember this has been untried and we're in at the deep end .

For betting i would split the 10 into 2 groups with the lowest average aggregate in one group and the next 5 in the other so it's -

Acca 1 - ARSENAL [Arg] / NOTTS F / AMIENS / PUMAS / SAN LUIS .

Acca 2 - HEREFORD / MONACO / CESENA / PUEBLA / GETAFE.

Acca 1 - ARSENAL [Arg] / NOTTS F / AMIENS / PUMAS / SAN LUIS . -10pts

Acca 2 - HEREFORD / MONACO / CESENA / PUEBLA / GETAFE. returned 30.69pts


Hard pressed for time [ and enthusiasim tbh] so here's the picks for this weekend -

Arg - SAN LORENZO v GODOY @ 1.18 , ARGENTINO'S v BELGRANO @ 1.16

Austria - WIENER v KAPFENBERG @ 1.25

France 2 - LE MANS v AMIENS @ 1.18 , METZ v MONACO @ 1.2.

Romania - CEAHLAUL PIATRA v BRASOV @ 1.2 , OTELUL GALATI v STEAUA @ 1.16 , SPORTUL v ASTRA @ 1.23

Bet 1 - WEINER / CEAHLAUL / SAN LORENZO / ARGENTINOS / LE MANS .

Bet 2 - ALL 8