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Premiership Rating System 2014/15

Discussion in 'System Proofing' started by ONEDUNME, Sep 21, 2014.

  1. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,992
    .....Well, I say 2014/15 but it's far more likely that I'll have lost interest (i.e, be losing :naughty) by the middle of October.

    If you've read this week's Premiership thread here..
    http://www.betnod.com/threads/english-premier-league-betting-20-21st-september-2014.3453/#post-48129

    ....you will know what this is about but I've copied and pasted the relevant info below

    One of the things I was doing in between the world cup ending and the season beginning is having a bash at creating my own ratings - one that don't react in a knee-jerk fashion after every very good or very bad result for a team and also take into account the variation between home and away. It's obviously too early to say that they're worth taking any notice of but the results have been encouraging.

    With that in mind, I'll post the bare predictions up and the value bets based on that.

    Will also be of interest (to me anyway) whether I'd be better off betting on the straight result predicted overall or adapting those predictions -for example, taking draw no bet instead of straight win. Or even adapting stakes based on the strength of the predictions eg 30pts for 3/3 strength and 10 pts 1/3 strength. Anyway, my intention is to have three sets of P&L figures

    What I'd like to do where possible is change the outcome to 2 possibilities instead of the normal win -draw-win outcomes which I'm convinced is what makes me so shit at football betting as averaged out over the years.

    I'll do three sets of P&L figures initially (don't worry, I'll soon get bored after three losing weeks:lol) as below...

    1. Bets outlined in bold (this is the raison 'd'etre for putting time into this as these would be my actual bets if it proved to be worth following) using prices and stakes quoted at the end of each match paragraph.

    2. Bets using standard 10pt per game stakes at the win/draw/win price quoted at the start of each match paragraph

    3. Bets based on prices quoted at the start of each match paragraph using stakes of 10x the strength rating.
    Last edited: Sep 21, 2014
  2. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,992
    Fixtures for Saturday and Sunday 20th and 21st September

    QPR v Stoke - Away win best price 9/5 - was bigger earlier in the week (strength 3/3)
    Bet Stoke DNB which I'm actually on at at even money. For the sake of comparison I'll say 20pt stake

    Aston Villa v Arsenal - Away win best price 9/10 (vcbet -drifting) (strength 3/3)
    Bet Arsenal win 9/10 20pt stake

    Burnley v Sunderland - Draw 23/10 (Strength 1/3)
    Now my stats slightly favour Burnley but they are close enough to make the draw the predicted outcome. Bearing in mind what I said above about trying to turn my bet into 2 outcomes instead of 3, I'm going to a draw bet at a much lower price than the draw with money back if burnley win - a home win no bet (most will be familiar with a draw no bet). Most bookies don't even offer this bet but (best price 19/20 with a bookie) but obviously the same bet can be placed by just adjusting stakes on the normal win draw bet market.

    In this example, a stake of 20pts on 19/20 would obviously return a profit of 19 but if I split my 20pt stake and put 12 on the draw price at 23/10 and 8 on the burnley win price at 8/5 I would make a profit of 19.6 pts for the draw and a mini-profit of 0.8pts if Burnley win. These odds I like.
    Bet Draw - Home win no bet 20pt stake to win 19.6 for draw and 0.8 pts for home win

    Newcastle v Hull - Home win 5/4 (drifting) (Strength 1/3)
    Ratings very close to predicting a draw but marginally going to home win. Prices don't allow for a saver bet on the draw so ..
    Bet Home win 10 pts stake

    Swansea v Southampton. Away win -best price 2/1 (shortening). Strength 1/3
    As above, very close to predicting a draw (hence the low strength rating) but the away odds present the opportunity of reducing the outcomes to 2 with a draw no bet or Asian Handicap bet.
    Bet Southampton DNB 11/10 10pts

    WHU v Liverpool. No shocks here, Liverpool win 5/6 (Strength 3/3).
    It's the odds on aways that would lead a man to the poor house in the long run and I'm going to apply a bit of logic here and reduce the stake of the bet, despite the strength of the forecast because the odds are so low.
    Bet Liverpool 10 pts 5/6

    Spurs v WBA. Draw 18/5 (Strength 2.5/3)
    This is what I like about this thing so far, it isn't predicting every odds-odd team to win. Spurs are around 1/2 and will likely go on to win 4-1 but, I'm happy to take a chance on the longer term view.
    Bet Draw 10pts 18/5

    Everton v Palace. Everton 4/9 (Strength 2/3)
    Of course it's inevitably going to agree with a lot of the odds on shots
    Bet Everton 20pts 4/9

    Man City v Chelsea. Although in it's infancy, this forecasting thingy is one of the main reasons that I was so bullish about the Arsenal Man City draw last week (which had a "strength" rating of 3/3). I know that on games between the top four or five, many revert to backing the draw as a default position but my ratings go for Chelsea (85/40 vcbet) - Strength 1.5/3
    My bet will be Chelsea draw no bet which is best price of 23/20 (as is Asian Handicap for the same outcome) but again I can get a marginally better price on the 3 outcome market by backing Chelsea at 85/40 and the draw at 5/2.
    Bet Chelsea 20pt staked to win 23.75 pts or 1 pt if it's a draw

    Whoops, missed the Leicester Man United match out. Rather surprisingly, this throws up a Home win (Strength 2/3). As I said at the top. this doesn't take into account knee-jerk reactions and the down side of this is that it will take a while for what we can all see with our own eyes (i.e that United have improved immensely with the addition of some better players) to be reflected in the stats and therefore this is probably a false prediction. Nevertheless, I'm sticking with it and with Leicester a massive 19/4 shot (just over 9/2 for us traditionalists) it presents an opportunity to back them on the Asian Handicap, although I'm again intervening and cutting down the stakes.
    Bet Leicester Asian hcap +0.75 43/40 10pts
  3. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,992
    Final settlement

    1. Selected bets = +10.35pts

    2. Bets using standard 10pt per game stakes at the win/draw/win price quoted = +39.50

    3. Bets based on prices quoted at the start of each match paragraph using stakes of 10x the strength rating= +35
  4. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,992
    Obviously a decent week, even with only 4 of the 10 ratings actually being correct due to the prices.. The bets that I ended up making from them ending up with 4 winner, 4 losers and 2 "pushes" (money returned).

    Back shortly with next week's
  5. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,992
    Selections for next week, starting Saturday 27th Sept

    Liverpool Everton - Draw (14/5), strength 2/3. Surprisingly, the ratings slightly favour the away side so it's a draw bet with money back if Everton win.
    Bet Draw with Everton saver. 20 pts staked to win 37 for the draw and +1.67 if Everton win
    prices based on current prices 15pts on draw at 14/5 with vcbet returning 57 and 5pts on Everton at 10/3 also vcbet returning 21.67

    Chelsea v Villa - Home win (2/9), strength 3/3. Bet 30pt win

    Palace v Leicester - Draw (23/10), strength 2/3. Leicester slightly favoured by ratings so Bet Draw bet with Leicester saver. 20 staked to return 22.25 profit if draw and 1pt profit if away win

    Hull v Man City - Away win (8/13), strength 3/3. Bet away win 20 pts win

    Man Utd v WHU- Draw (5/1), strength 2/3. Bet 10pt win at 5/1

    Soton v QPR - Home win (8/15), strength 3/3. Bet 30pt win

    Sunderland v Swansea - Draw (23/10), strength 2/3. Bet 10 pt draw

    Arsenal v Spurs - Home win (10/11), strength 2. Bet 15pts

    WBA v Burnley - Home win (evens), strength 2.5/3. Bet home win 15pts
    EDIT - Looking over this again, I think I've been rather over-cautious due to my own lack of confidence in West Brom. A strength of 2.5 and a price of evens money should really be at least a 20 pointer, so I'll increase this one.

    Stoke v Newcastle-Away win (5/2), strength 1/3. Bet Newcastle draw no bet 10pts 7/5
    Last edited: Sep 21, 2014
  6. Kegman

    Kegman Moderator

    Messages:
    2,256
    Should this read home win ?

    Good luck ODM :beer
  7. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,992

    Yep - Thanks mate
  8. jtw1

    jtw1 Member

    Messages:
    610
    Great start ODM :clap Best of luck for the season ..:crossfingers
  9. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,992
    Thanks mate but I've got a feeling it won't be rivalling your h2h thread for longevity. :lol
    jtw1 likes this.
  10. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,992
    Just for a giggle, I'm going to put up the ratings for the all Prem ties in the league cup this week. No need to remind me about sub-strength teams etc - I know. I'll keep the FA and league cup P&L figures separate.

    Arsenal v Soton - Ratings Draw (strength 1/3) favouring home win - odds prohibit a draw with a home saver so just a straight draw bet 10pts 11/4

    Swansea v Everton - Away win (5/2, strength 3/3) 20 pts Everton asian handicap +0.25 28/29(what?)

    Sunderland v Stoke -Draw (12/5, strength 1/3) 10 pts draw (stoke win no bet) 5/4

    WBA v Hull - Draw (5/2, strength 3/3). 15pts draw

    Crystal Palace v Newcastle Draw (12/5, strength 3/3). 15pt draw
  11. slick

    slick Administrator

    Messages:
    10,616
    Wouldn't argue with any of those, good luck mate.
  12. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,992
    Bag of shite so far. Need a draw or two tomorrow
  13. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,992
    Well I could moan about the last minute goal by West Brom that cost me a draw but then I'd have to moan about the last minute goal that got Palace a draw. :lol

    So cup games =
    1. 60pts returned 51 = 9pt loss
    2. 40pts returned 34 = 6pt loss
    3. 100 pts returned 102 = 2 pt profit
  14. slick

    slick Administrator

    Messages:
    10,616
    lol, You're a brave man tackling league cup games anyhow considering the vast changes made to the teams.
    My last remark was based on me thinking they were Prem fixtures lol otherwise I'd have called you a nutter.
  15. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,992

    :lol Yep, I realise it's bollocks but I'm at that stage where I've got a new toy and enjoyed playing with it at the weekend so I'm getting it out again:roll. That's me all over - from obsessive to quickly bored.
  16. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,992
    Just got back from a stag weekend so just done a quick calculation but I get 5 predictions right and another good weekend whatever happens in the last two games.

    Profits for this weekend so far

    System 1. +49.98pts
    System 2 +34.73
    System 3 +93.14
  17. jtw1

    jtw1 Member

    Messages:
    610
    :clap Ticking along nicely ODM and you were unlucky not to get the draw in the Man U game !!
  18. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,992
    All 3 staking methods will mean a 10pt loss if Stoke beat Newcastle (as they are doing currently) or level if a draw or +14pts if newcastle win so easy enough to amend if needed but, assuming a Stoke win the profits for this weekend are:

    System 1 +59.98 = 70.33 cumulative over 2 weekends
    System 2 +34.73 = 74.23 cum
    System 3 +108.14 = +142.14 cum

    Sound
  19. slick

    slick Administrator

    Messages:
    10,616
    Nice one mate well done.
  20. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,992
    Now that the Stoke game has finished, I can put up next weekend's games

    Hull v Palace X 31/30 2/3 bet 10pts draw
    Leic Burnley H 4/5 3/3 bet 20pt home win
    Liv WBA X 9/2 1/3 (favouring home win but prices don't allow for a win no bet) bet 10pt X
    Sund v Stoke A 85/40 1/3 bet Stoke DNB 23/20 10 pts
    Swans v Newc X 11to4 2/3 bet 10 x
    Villa v Man City A 8/15 1/3 bet away 30
    Man U v Everton A 15/4 1/3 bet Ev asian hcap 0.75 evens 10pts
    Chelsea v Arsenal H 7/10 2/3 bet 20pts Chelsea
    Spurs v Soton A 13to5 2/3 bet asian hcap Soton 0.25 43/40 20pts
    WHU v QPR H 19/20 3/3 bet 25 home 19/20

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