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Premiership Rating System 2014/15

Discussion in 'System Proofing' started by ONEDUNME, Sep 21, 2014.

  1. slick

    slick Administrator

    Messages:
    10,296
    Looking at those picks I have a feeling you will do very well this weekend.
  2. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,735
    Well that's put the kybosh on it lol
  3. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,735
    That last minute Burnley equaliser cost me a third big profitable week.

    1. +1.25 =+71.58 over 3 weekends
    2. -10.66 = +63.57 cum
    3.+2.84 = +144.98 (would have been up to 200 but, that's life)
  4. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,735
    Week 4, Saturday 18th October

    This is one of those coupons where you can get 7 of the ten right and still not make a profit, in other words - a stinker with no value.

    Man City v TH Home 3/3 price 1/2 30pt home win
    Arse v Hull Home 3/3 price 4/11 30 home 4/11
    Burnley WHU Away 2/3 7/4 20 whu DNB 37/40
    Palace v Chelsea Away 3/3 2/5 30pt win 2/5
    Everton v A villa x 1.5/3 33/10 15 x 33/10
    Newc leic H 1/3 6/5 10 Home 6/5
    Soton v Sund H 3/3 8/13 Home 30 8/13
    QPR Liv A 3/3 8/13 Away 30 8/13
    Stoke Swansea X 2/3 5/2 20 x 5/2
    WBA Man U H 2/3 4/1 15 WBA ahcap 0.25 19/20
  5. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,735
    Man City v TH Home 3/3 price 1/2 30pt home win +15/ +5 / +15

    Arse v Hull Home 3/3 price 4/11 30 home 4/11 -30/ -10 / -30

    Burnley WHU Away 2/3 7/4 20 whu DNB 37/40 +18.5/ 17.5 / +18.5

    Palace v Chelsea Away 3/3 2/5 30pt win 2/5 +12 / +4 / +12

    Everton v A villa x 1.5/3 33/10 15 x 33/10 -15 / -10 / -15

    Newc leic H 1/3 6/5 10 Home 6/5 +12/ +12 / +12

    Soton v Sund H 3/3 8/13 Home 30 8/13 +18.47/ +6.16 / +18.47

    QPR Liv A 3/3 8/13 Away 30 8/13 +18.47/ +6.16 / +18.47

    Stoke Swansea X 2/3 5/2 20 x 5/2 -20 -10 / -20

    WBA Man U H 2/3 4/1 15 WBA ahcap 0.25 19/20 +14.25/ -10 / 14.25


    Profit on week
    +28.69 / +10.82 / +9.44

    Totals
    1. +100.27
    2. +74.39
    3.+154.42
  6. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,735
    This week's. Prices may vary slightly from current as I did these on Monday but didn't want to post them up cos of the problems with the site.

    WHU Mcity Away 2/3 20pt on at 8/13
    Liv v Hull Draw (favouring home) 1/3 10pt on x 19/5
    Soton v Stoke Home 1/3 10pt 8/13
    Sund Arse Away 3/3 30 4/5
    WBA CP X (favouring home) 10pt x 13/5
    Burnley Everton Away 3/3 30pt win 10/11
    Spurs Newc Home 2/3 20pt 4/5
    Swans Leic Away win 1/3 7/2 15pt Asian Hcap 0.5 to return 30.37
    Man u chels Away 3/3 20pt DNB 8/11 and 10 away win 8/5
    QPR Villa Away 1.5/3 9/4 15 DNB 11/8
  7. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,735
    four games to go and looking good for a profit this week.

    +59.16
    +58.16
    +64.16
  8. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,735
    WHU Mcity Away 2/3 20pt on at 8/13 -20/ -10/ -20
    Liv v Hull Draw (favouring home) 1/3 10pt on x 19/5 38/ 38/ 38
    Soton v Stoke Home 1/3 10pt 8/13 6.16/ 6.16/ 6.16
    Sund Arse Away 3/3 30 4/5 24/ 8/ 24
    WBA CP X (favouring home) 10pt x 13/5 26/ 26/ 26
    Burnley Everton Away 3/3 30pt win 10/11 27.23 / 9.1 / 27.23
    Spurs Newc Home 2/3 20pt 4/5 -20 / -10/ -20
    Swans Leic Away win 1/3 7/2 15pt Asian Hcap 0.5 to return 30.37 -15/ -10 / -10
    Man u chels Away 3/3 20pt DNB 8/11 and 10 away win 8/5 -10 / -10/ -30
    QPR Villa Away 1.5/3 9/4 15 DNB 11/8

    Everton Spurs Chelsea Week's total going forward to tomorrow
    +59.16 +27.23 -20 -10 +56.39
    +58.16 +9.1 -10 -10 +47.26
    +64.16 +27.23 -20 -30 -22.77
  9. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,735
    Forgot about the Premiership ratings thing for the cup games. I have Liverpool to beat Swans tonight strength 3/1 30 odds of 1.7 and 0-0 at the moment
  10. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,735
    Tomorrow Man City tb Newcastle strength 2 20pts 1.33

    Southampton to beat stoke 1/3 2.3

    Forgot to say liverpool 30 pts
  11. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,735
    [
    Last weekend's totals
    +41.39
    +37.26
    +26.39

    Cumulative score after
    Totals
    1. +141.66
    2. +111.65
    3.+180.81

    Ticking along nicely
  12. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,735
    Next weekend's games
    Newc v Liverpool X 2/3 10pt 13/5
    Arsenal Burnley H 3/3 30 3/10
    Chelsea QPR H 3/3 30 2/11
    Everton Swans H 2/3 15 8/11
    Hull Soton X 2/3 10 5/2
    Leic Wba H 1/3 10 6/5
    Stoke WHU X (12/5) favouring away 1.5/3 . Away win no bet 15pt 13/10
    M City v M Utd H 3/3 20 11/13
    A Villa Spurs A 2/3 5/4 15pt away
    Palace Sunderland H 3/3 22/19 30pts
  13. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,735
    A comparatively poor week's score given that every week so far has been a winning one. Still time to turn it around though
    1. -11.04
    2. -34.18
    3. -19.54
  14. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,735
    Better with two winners yesterday putting 2 out of three in the black for the weekend with one to go

    +24.64
    -13.21
    +30.85
  15. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,735
    Final scores for the week
    -5.36 pts
    -23.21
    +0.85

    Cumulative scores
    1. + 136.3
    2. +88.44
    3. +184.21
  16. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,735
    Liverpool Chelsea away 3/3 13/10 30pts
    Burnley v Hull away 1/5/3 15pt dnb hull 23/20
    man u v Palace home 3/3 1/3 30 1/3
    soton v leice home 3/3 40/85 30pts
    whu v AV home 3/3 30pts 3/4
    qpr man city away 3/3 30 8/15
    sund v everton away 2/3 20pt 11/10
    spurs v stoke x 1.5/3 15pts x 3/1
    wba v newc x 1/3 10pt x 5/2
    swans v arse away 2.5/3 25 5/4
  17. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,735
    -11.88
    -8.95
    -11.88
  18. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,735
    Sitting up with a shitty cold and fuck all else to do so I thought I'd check up on this thing. I have no best prices to check on historically but I'm surprised to find that I would have made a profit on four of the six sets of fixtures since the last one I posted. That's based on just the odds posted on here (and another site for one set of midweek fixtures) which means that, in reality, I would have made a profit for 5 of the 6. Even more encouraging is that that 5 have been the most recent 5, hitting 6 out of the 10 results. Granted some of those would be long odds on but it seems to be particularly good at spotting draws.

    A tenner staked per game since 29th Nov would have see me £144 in profit (without best odds)

    I haven't got anything earth-shatteringly novel for boxing day. There are a lot of odds ons and I'd be disappointed to get less than 6 of the results right on this particular week but if I had to pick and choose, I'd leave the Burnley Liverpool and West Brom Man City games alone and go for the rest (even Man United at a shitty 2/5)

    Anyway, the full list are
    Chelsea tb Wh 4/11
    Liverpool at burnley 17/20
    Soton at Palace 6/5
    Everton tb Stoke 17/20
    Spurs tb Le 11/10
    MU tb Ne
    M city tb WBA
    Ars tb qpr

    and the draws (which I'm actually thinking of starting to bet on)

    Sunderland Hull 5/2
    Swansea Villa 11/4
  19. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,735
    Interestingly (to me anyway) the fixtures for the 28th 29th seem to be much tighter with only two of the matches in which my predictions are guaranteed not to change depending upon the outcomes of Friday's games.

    City to beat Burnley at 2/11
    qpr tb Palace at 7/5

    All the rest may change with Stoke and Newcastle currently looking like home selections and any or all of the remaining 6 games, potential draws.
  20. ONEDUNME

    ONEDUNME Administrator

    Messages:
    9,735
    The recent averages were maintained in the boxing day games with 6 out of the 10 predictions being correct and a small profit of 4.86 pts on the day.

    None of the results affected today's predictions and two of the six predicted draws are up so far at prices of 5/2 and 14/5, so looking good so far.

    It's half time in all but the newcastle everton game which kicks off later (prediction home win at 2/1) and the scores are

    Man City 2 Burnley 0 (prediction City 2/11)
    QPR 0 Palace 0 (prediction QPR 7/5)
    Hull 0 Leicester 1 (prediction X 12/5)
    Stoke 0 wba 0 (prediction Home 11/10)
    WHU 0 Arsenal 2 (prediction X 13/5)


    Monday game Liverpool Swansea X 14/5

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