Eurovision Song Contest 13th - 17th May 2025

[Beanie]

Howdy! No substantial changes to the voting format or rules this year, so it's as you were from 2024 - televote only semi finals, and 50/50 jury/televote in the final. Producers retain significant control of the final running order. There is reduced coverage of rehearsals this year, but that's not such a big issue anymore as it's been dropping for years and as a result the pre-contest betting markets are increasingly dominated by clued up insiders and not worth getting too involved in as far as trading goes imo.

Songs for this year:

Overall I think its a weak year, but that likely offers some additional betting opportunities.

Semi and final previews/notes coming through this week.

 

[Beanie]

Rehearsal snippets - useful for getting the overall stage impression of an act:

Semi 1 running order:

Semi 2 running order:

 

[Jezza]

There is reduced coverage of rehearsals this year, but that's not such a big issue anymore as it's been dropping for years and as a result the pre-contest betting markets are increasingly dominated by clued up insiders and not worth getting too involved in as far as trading goes imo.

Thanks for starting the thread Beanie. That's good info on the rehearsals. I've noticed they are reduced to clips of acts they choose from rehearsals (published on social media).

As for the betting I already went steaming in on France @ 12/1 without even hearing any songs. Of course they are now 15/1 lmao, I will exercise more patience before placing any other bets. Cannot forget you landing a 50/1 shot on Norway last place this time last year Beanie!

There is reduced coverage of rehearsals this year, but that's not such a big issue anymore as it's been dropping for years and as a result the pre-contest betting markets are increasingly dominated by clued up insiders and not worth getting too involved in as far as trading goes imo.


Thanks for starting the thread Beanie. That's good info on the rehearsals. I've noticed they are reduced to clips of acts they choose from rehearsals (published on social media).

As for the betting I already went steaming in on France @ 12/1 without even hearing any songs. Of course they are now 15/1 lmao, I will exercise more patience before placing any other bets. Cannot forget you landing a 50/1 shot on Norway last place this time last year Beanie!

I saw a gambler I respect posting the favourite is a "novelty song". I'll listen to them all this week.

 

[Jezza]

Damn messed up that post and cant edit, think the gist is there lol.

 

[Beanie]

Good to see you Jez. Yeah the last place market was kind last year - and often a bit more interesting than the winner market.

The betting markets have this as a bit of a shootout between Sweden (likely to do very well on the Tele vote) and Austria (likely to do very well on the jury vote.)

Between those two, the most important element may be - does Sweden do better with juries than Austria does with televoters?

Does Sweden stray too far into the novelty genre to attract widespread jury support? Do the operatic elements(a typically poorly performing genre) of Austria put off too many televoters? Do the shortcomings of both give chances to France/Israel etc to steam up the middle?

The answers to these questions may or may not appear on this thread .

Dress rehearsal tonight should help...

 

[Beanie]

Better* rehearsals video here:

Not planning to get too involved in the semi finals this year, but for tonight a small play on Slovenia to Qualify @ 11/10 (Betfred). It's picked up some momentum this week - i think they would have been better with more intimate staging, but in a dog's dinner of a semi final this still stands out as some calm in the storm and I think it will attract support as a result.

*Given how poor this year is, in not sure that the longer video is better at all

 

[Jezza]

FFS everytime I look at France's price it's drifted. Major RIP.

 

[Beanie]

FFS everytime I look at France's price it's drifted. Major RIP.

Bouncing back tonight as Sweden's stats on social media/Spotify are slightly underwhelming after last night's semi final, so a bit of a drift for the fav.

Netherlands and Estonia shortening based on solid social media stats from last night.

All in all, shaping up for a fairly open final!

Slovenia qualify gamble failed - quite a few surprises in the qualifiers(atleast as far as the odds are concerned) so may give semi 2 a swerve unless anything jumps out.

 

[Jezza]

All in all, shaping up for a fairly open final!

Wow it is indeed, think I got lucky with the running order for France as its come in a bit this morning. It's the hope that gets you.

Next couple of days prime time for placing bets for me. It's hard to get money on though unless its on the exchanges. If you take the strategy of betting on anything the bookies have priced longer than on betfair youll be limited sharpish in my experience. You are right about the last place Beanie, not just literally like last year but also that its a really fun/interesting market.

 

[Jezza]

gone harder on france and looking to back france top 4 as well

also put small amount on the netherlands and finland

 

[Beanie]

Handy final running order recap here:

Based on last year (which also had far more producer control over running order) they will deliberately neuter songs they don't want to win in slots 1-7. So we can assume that Estonia and Israel did strongly in the semi final PV, and producers are weakening them with the 3rd and 4th slots.

Conversely, last year the contenders that they were happy winning were somewhere from 20-25, surrounded by weaker songs. Again, clear to see that is Sweden and France and hence the odds drop.

More intriguing are Austria, Netherlands, and Switzerland. It is perhaps a signal for the first 2 that they only did ok in the public vote in the semi.

(It's also possible to read too much into the running order. Beyond those that they don't want to win i.e. Israel given the political headaches that would bring, their main focus is producing a good show.)

Need to do a full run through of the songs and markets...what better way to spend a Friday night

 

[Jezza]

Need to do a full run through of the songs and markets...what better way to spend a Friday night

Many thanks Beanie, your thoughts are majorly appreciated as always

There's also the FPL deadline tonight to divide your attention even further of course, coming down to the wire!

 

[Beanie]

Many thanks Beanie, your thoughts are majorly appreciated as always

There's also the FPL deadline tonight to divide your attention even further of course, coming down to the wire!

I've got the conundrum of being conservative and trying to hold that lead, while at the same time needing to gamble a little to chase down top 3 in my work money league....decisions decisions...

 

[Beanie]

Before jumping into predictions and betting markets and things that risk making me look stupid, a quick look at the two sides of the equation (jury + televote) and some general notes that might be helpful when betting.

Jury: The jury final was last night, so the juries have already submitted their scores for this years contest. The reports are much as expected, with Austria throwing in one of their weaker performances, and France and Switzerland showing as the typical jury bait that should score well.

In general, juries reward good vocals and heavily penalise songs that are seen as 'joke' or 'novelty' entries. They are typically (but of course not exclusively) a left leaning demographic, penalise more 'ethnic' songs, as well as entries deemed sexist or 'not classy'. In 2024 they heavily penalised Israel (presumably for political reasons as the song was a solid jury friendly entry) and id expect the same this year.

Juries are a large group, but these are the typical, recurring themes. As a result, of the contenders we can expect Estonia and Finland to be heavily penalised by juries. Sweden is less clear cut as the singing is generally good and the presentation very professional, but a number of elements that may be considered as a novelty.

Televote: Stats from things like spotify and social media give some indication of likely televote strength. This is a positive vote, so divisive songs that stand out (e.g. Estonia) will perform very well, and more generic songs less so. The last 2 years have seen televote wins for the crowd pleasing bangers (Croatia and Finland) although neither was enough for the overall win.

Diaspora voting is still strong - and there have been so few qualifiers from south and eastern europe that we can expect entries like Albania and Greece to get a geographical boost while the central and northern european qualifiers compete for the same votes.

The Ukrainian diaspora is now huge as a result of the ongoing invasion, hence why they are still seen as top 10 contenders despite an abysmal entry. Israel similarly will likely benefit from an extremely motivated diaspora/support base.

 

[Beanie]

For what its worth, some predictions...

Last Place: As with most years, this looks fairly wide open. A rogue 8 or 10 points from a jury completely changes the dynamic, so while I'd expect the UK (current favourites for last place) to be last or close to last, 6/4 looks short. It;s a relatively unique song and thats no bad thing for picking up some limited support.

Instead, I'm having a look at countries like Latvia, Spain, Iceland and San Marino. Latvia qualified with a non-televote friendly song from 4th spot in the semi, so despite the price I think they will pickup a little support on both sides of the board. Spain I dont rate but the presentation is slick enough to pickup some jury support. So its San Marino (40/1) and Iceland (8/1) for me - no natural diaspora, jury-poison, and will be crowded out on the televote.

Top 15 Market: I see merit in backing Lithuania @ 2.10 here. Ive been backing it down from 2.50. Their draw is poor, but in a contest packed with novelty, ballad, and ethnic entries, this is swimming in its own pool as a slightly darker, alt rock song. Not everyone who watches Eurovision is looking for the novelty banger, and I think this will do ok with both televoters, and juries who reward its serious presentation. Enough for top 15 imo.

Top 10: Lithuania @ 5/1 also worth consideration (may be a stretch but still value i think) and I also like Italy @ 2/1 here, for similar reasons to Lithuania. A theatric glam rock ballad that i think juries will show some love towards for the serious presentation, it's also fairly unique in the contest, and southern europe is heavily underrepresented in the final. Enough for lower top 10.

Also think Finland could be opposed in this market - currently trading at 1.20 but expecting them to bomb with juries.

 

[Beanie]

And lastly, who is going to win!?

A quick run through the contenders:

Sweden - lets call this the default winner. Will likely be top 2 on the televote, and while its not necessarily jury fodder, the widely popular televote entries typically also score well with juries even if they have novelty elements (Finland 4th with juries in 2023).

Austria - Ive been cooling on its chances all week. There is competition for the jury votes from the likes of France, Switzerland, Netherlands, so I dont think the jury score will be high enough to offset a middling televote score. The operatic genre has a poor record at eurovision and I think it continues here. Worth opposing in the top 3 market - 2/1 on it to miss the podium.

France - expect it to become 2nd fav during today, and to top the jury vote tonight. Then the question is over the public vote - its not performed particularly well on spotify/youtube/socials, but my takeaway from the semi final was that the mother/daughter message came across really well, so while it may not have longevity after the contest, it has a chance to create the 'moment' on the night, particularly in the prime running slot. Right up there for the win.

Netherlands - I dont see it contending. Lots of jury appeal, but unlike France there is no 'moment' to turn a solid jury score into one that helps it make a play for the win.

Switzerland - I'll declare an interest here - my favourite song in the contest by some distance. Its jury bait (although as noted, it and France will harm each other a little), great draw with noisy songs around it, but bigger question marks about the public vote which may be too much to overcome. There is also the tricky element of how much being the host country harms its chances. But i see this in the mould of Due Vite (Italy '23) - in the chaos of a noisy 26 song Saturday night, there is a strong market for a delicate, intimate entry, and this is the most intimate of the lot. I'm backing it for a similar result to that of Italy 23 - Top 4 @ 5/1 and Top 5 @ 4/1.

Israel/Finland/Estonia - not contending - kneecapped by the juries.

So at the moment I see 1. Sweden, 2. France (running them very close), and an unexpected podium for 3. Switzerland.

 

[Jezza]

Incredible write up Beanie many thanks. A lot of insightful and knowledgeable points to take in there. I've ended up on France at decent odds now through sheer luck. Agree about it (hopefully) doing well in the Jury vote but the Public vote letting down maybe. I do wonder though after the last couple of years of the Jury vote being decisive over the Public we might see it swing back.

I'd already picked out San Marino last place @ 40/1.....not from analysis but purely for the reason its shorter on betfair exchange than it is at a couple of bookies. Skybet have it @ 40/1......they let me only have £2 on it but im limited there. Vbet also have it at that price and they have been ok for me before but they placed me "under investigation" last year and I cant place a bet since lmao. Looking at Iceland now also thanks Beanie.

 

[Beanie]

Haha, yep, £2 for me too at Skybet Will see if i can pick it up at 25-30/1 this afternoon elsewhere.

I've just had a convo with someone about France and I mentioned the mother/daughter message coming across clearly. He said 'Yep, my wife gasped and teared up at the daughter moment'. That has tipped me across into thinking that it wins - if the mother/daughter message is coming across that clearly despite it not being in English, then it's tapping into a universal appeal that will take care of both the jury and televote - not just parents with daughters but also people thinking of their mums.

 

[Jezza]

Absolute nightmare getting money on, as always. Unless you use the exchanges and just take the market price. Normal bookmakers keen to publish their odds all over social media but not take any actual bets on it.

 

[Beanie]

I've kept France onside for a while but now taking some top 3 and w/o Sweden, along with a little more on the win.

Last note - Eurovision typically offers great in-running opportunities. British punters will crash the prices on the fan favourites, so there's money to be made opposing the songs that will do poorly with juries (Finland last year traded at odds on for top 10 in running, despite it being obvious it would do terribly with juries). Can typically trade it back during the jury points reveal as those punters realise its not all about the televote.

Hoping for some odds crashes on Estonia and Finland to oppose tonight (Racing post have tipped Finland so its already attracting a lot of money - hoping that we see odds on for top 4 during the show.)

Off out for a Eurovision detox - been looking at markets for 3 hours