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BBC Sports Personality Of The Year 2012

All about peaking at the right time & Jessica Ennis sets a new British record.

http://www.sportinglife.com/others/...05/27/ATHLETICS_Gotzis_Nightlead.html&BID=678

If any of this lot win Olympic gold medals then they're the five most likely to win SPotY in my opinion at this very pre emptive 'halfway' stage:

1. Jessica Ennis (the face of the British Olympics, little girl vs. the big girls Chernova & Dobrynska . Did they deny her last time out assuming 2012 was a shoo-in?)
2. Mo Farah (if he gets two gold medals, he may sneak it)
3. Ben Ainslie (if he wins gold, it'll have been in four Olympics in a row that he's done so)
4. Any cyclist (one of 'em will get multiple gold medals)
5. Ellie Simmonds (there'll be a focus on the Paralympics and she may just get the attention. Last time a disabled person was on the shortlist? Tanni Grey-Thompson in 2000)

The rest of the nominees will likely be other Olympic gold medallists such as Dai Greene and if he doesn't choke, Philips Idowu but they likely won't have the support of Ainslie (the posh crowd that voted for Zara Philips may gather to support him), Ennis (last female winner was Zara Phillips in 2006) & Farah (last black male winner was Lennox Lewis in 1999).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BBC_Sports_Personality_of_the_Year_Award

Jenson Button and Lewis Hamilton are a bust in my opinion as they've won titles before and only managed to finish at best second in previous years.

They probably won't put Paul Scholes on the shortlist just in case it gets hijacked by the Man United crowd like when Ryan Giggs won. For a footballer to be on the list, England will have to have won Euro 2012.
 
Good stuff Stereoman, i wouldn't disagree with too much there, infact you've convinced me to get on Ben Ainslie.
17pts @ 14/1 Hills.

Regarding your other picks if i can comment....

I think Ennis has a very good chance, though i'm leaving her at those odds, but only because i've got her covered in my Any Female Winner bets. She's still profitable to me without backing her individually at present.

Farah would definately have to win 2 medals to stand a chance imo, i'm not so sure he will.

Cyclists yes! But i think it's more likely to be a female cyclist this time. Victoria Pendleton stands a great chance and i've 8pts @ 16/1 on her but i've taken more of a chance that Laura Trott might shine, she's already a double world champion and at just 20 yrs old she could win alot over.

As for the para olympian i'm glad that its a female that you mention.

I'm not too happy with my staking so far tbh, thats 188pts i've staked to date, more than i'd of wanted at this stage. Gerrard would be my biggest payer but that's a long shot, deep down i'm not expecting him to win it and i've only taken him as England captain at the Euro's should they win it. I've only 20pts on him but if a miracle does happen in Poland/Ukraine then he could net me 1720pts.

My next best 5 payers are
LauraTrott (including Any Female Winner bets) - 906.25pts
Tom Daley - 794pts
V.Pendleton (including Any Female Winner bets) - 356pts
Ben Ainslie - 255pts
Any Female - 220pts

I get sucked to heavily in this market every year :duh

Good Luck
 
What about Dario Franchitti ? not even quoted on the bookies I checked and most probably wont ever be but well done all the same.
 
I'm not being funny Keggers but who the bloody hell is Dario Franchitti?
 
Just googled him and I see what you mean, he has an impessive record in Indie racing but I suppose to stand any chance of winning SPOTY he would have to be in the British public eye.
 
Yes. Too true. I'm not a big motor sport fan but i watched some of the Indy 500 at the weekend and winning something like that is a fantastic achievement.

Darren Clarke came from nowhere last year when he won the open and it would be the same if Colin Montgomery won the US Open he would get a quote (he'll no win it this year cause he never qualified)
 
I touted Dan Wheldon as well as Dario a few years ago as surprise nominees but as high profile as they are in the US, they're almost 'invisible' to British sports journalists who get asked to make up the shortlist.

...to be fair, they're likely not very well known in Britain and apart from those who like IRL and those with a vested interest, Dario Franchitti is probably more well known as Mr Ashley Judd.

Dan Wheldon's fate is unfortunate that seemingly more people knew who he was when he died.

Luol Deng is another Brit who suffers from 'invisible to most Brits' syndrome but he'll be the focus of British basketball at the Olympics.

One name as filler for the shortlist after tonight's Diamond League meeting in Rome is Robbie Grabarz who won the high jump. He won't win SPotY as his profile definitely isn't high enough but he'll be amongst the filler in the shortlist if he does win gold in London.

Greg Rutherford who won the long jump isn't out of the question either to get a filler nomination and he does have the longest jump this year.

http://www.iaaf.org/statistics/records/inout=o/discType=5/disc=LJ/detail.html

Tom Daley is always there or thereabouts and I'm sure he'll have likes of *ahem* Stephen Fry touting for him on Twitter. He'll have to beat the Chinese to get that gold to get on the shortlist but with a little bit of 'home advantage' *COUGH* bias, he may spring a surprise and get a lot more votes than he did in 2010.

http://www.insidethegames.biz/compo...ccoy-bbc-sports-personality-of-the-year-award

There may indeed be more of a focus to have on females on the shortlist and in the likelihood that there are numerous cyclists who win gold medals, only two or three will get on the shortlist and I suppose yes, Victoria Pendleton and Laura Trott may get the attention ahead of the males but only if they're MULTIPLE gold medallists. If the likes of Chris Hoy and Bradley Wiggins (currently fourth favourite at around 12/1) win as much if not more then they might jump to the head of the queue.

I don't see Mark Cavendish repeating even if he does win gold and certainly not ahead of the four cyclists mentioned.

I don't understand why Andy Murray is third favourite at around 10/1. Do they expect him to win one or more of the French Open, Wimbledon and the US Open as well as win Olympic gold!? If he somehow does that then a decisive Scottish voting bloc that helped Chris Hoy back in 2008 might be inclined to vote for him.

Rebecca Adlington has quit Twitter (understandable as there are more boo-boys on there having a go at her than Frankie Boyle ever did) but her best chance was in 2008. She might win a gold medal or two but I can't see her being more popular than the likes of Ennis or Farah.

I don't see cricketers able to make the shortlist. England would have to win the 20/20 World Cup just to get a cricketer on the shortlist. A slow hand clap for Kevin Pietersen for quitting international 50 overs & 20/20 cricket as he's currently ranked as the best 20/20 batsman in the world.

A golfer will make the shortlist if they win a Major. Luke Donald may get a default filler nomination if he maintains world number one status. No golfer will likely win SPotY this year though.

The general 25/1 quote on David Beckham is mystifying but it's pre-emptive based on 'early gambles' on him being part of the GB team somehow winning Olympic gold in the football.
 
Craig Bellamy's apparently let slip that he's in the Olympic squad.

http://www.sportinglife.com/london2...soccer/12/06/04/SOCCER_Olympics.html&BID=6932

Today's related Bettingzone Marlket News:

1415: Craig Bellamy has reportedly let slip that he is one of the over 23 players who is being included in Stuart Pearce's Team GB side at London 2012, and William Hill are now speculating who the others will be.

The firm make David Beckham and Ryan Giggs favourites at 1/6 and 4/7, while Joe Cole is among those at odds-against and can be backed at 9/4.

"With a combined age of 75, it will take an Olympian effort for Giggs and Beckham to play every minute of every game in London this summer," said Hill's spokesman Joe Crilly.

"But you don't win gold medals with just effort and there is no doubting that the pair could well make the difference in London."
 
The big mover is Bradley Wiggins but a poor effort in the Tour de France and no gold medals at the Olympics will mean his three fairly minor victories will mean nothing but a nomination though.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/cycling/18386547

The five heading the betting:

Jessica Ennis 3/1 (general)
Bradley Wiggins 8/1 (Sky Bet)
Mo Farah 10/1 (Boylesports)
Rebecca Adlington 14/1 (Bet365/Blue SQ/Boylesports/Ladbrokes)
Ben Ainslie 16/1 (Boylesports)

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/awards/sports-personality-of-the-year/winner
 
Hmmm. Today's Bettingzone Market News:

1205: Bradley Wiggins has hardened as favourite for the Tour de France following unconfirmed reports that one of his fellow favourites Andy Schleck has been forced out of the race.

Schleck, runner-up in last year's Tour, suffered a fall in the Critérium du Dauphiné warm-up race last week and the injuries sustained are believed to be worse than first thought.

Briton Wiggins now a best of 11/8 (Blue Square and bodog) following a market shake-up.

Defending champion Cadel Evans can be backed at 11/4 (bodog and it's 18/1 bar).

This year's race is expected to favour the British rider due to more time-trialling being involved.

===============

If Bradley Wiggins somehow wins the Tour de France then that puts a proverbial cat amongst the Olympic gold medal winning pigeons.
 
Yesterday's Bettingzone Martket News:

1730: Following his comfortable fourth round win at Wimbledon, Coral bookmakers have cut the price of Andy Murray winning the BBC Sports Personality Award to 8/1 (from 10/1).

The same firm have also trimmed the price of Bradley Wiggins to 4/1 (from 9/2).

"The nearer he gets to lifting the trophy, the shorter his odds of winning SPOTY will be, he’s already the worst result for us and will be the odds-on favourite if he manages it," said Coral spokesman Gary Burton.

Murray looked good in defeating Marin Cilic in a rain delayed tie on court one and is now 7/2 to win his first grand slam title.
Wiggins had a comfortable day in the saddle and remains the favourite to win the Tour de France at 11/10.

"Wiggins winning the Tour would normally make him a short priced favourite for SPOTY, but it will all be in vein if Murray wins Wimbledon,” added Burton.

Jessica Ennis is the 11/4 favourite to win the prestigious award.
 
Murray has fuck all chance of winning Wimbledon and, given that Bradly whatsisname keeps falling off his bike, he'll be lucky to be in one piece when the Olympics come around so the obvious bet is Jessica Ennis 3/1 at most bookies (and Betfair), 5/2 at Ladbrokes.
 
I'm not sure Murray has no chance. i dont like him or rate him but if he's ever doing it, its this year
 
He'll have a match on his hands if he gets to the final but having Lendl in his corner may just be the extra edge he is needing.
 
Yesterday morning's Bettingzone Market News:

0930: Sky Bet have pushed Andy Murray out to 6/1 from 2s in their Sports Personality of the Year betting, after he lost the Wimbledon final to Roger Federer.

Sky Bet trader Craig Ibbotson said: "Even though he has slipped in the betting, Murray still has the Olympics to come as well as the US Open as he aims to win his first Grand Slam title.

"A win in either could sway public opinion, but Jessica Ennis has a good chance as she is very popular and favourite for gold in the Heptathlon and Bradley Wiggins is looking strong in the Tour de France."

Other firms have taken similar action, and Murray is now a general 8/1 third-favourite behind Wiggins and Ennis, who can be backed at 7/2.

Wiggins will resume the Tour in the yellow jersey today and for the first time he's odds-on for victory at a best of 10/11 with Paddy Power.

=============

The odds as they are right now. A bit depressing if you're not a Bradley Wiggins supporter.

spoty12-9Jul12.jpg
 
I'm still on Jessica Ennis on the BBC "Has anyone really ever heard of this cunt" competition but only for a tiny, tiny amount as I went through a heart attack the other year before Tony McCoy deservedly won it. I have no real idea what jessica Ennis does, I just saw her name in the odds list.

In truth, I hadn't heard of her either to be honest, it was really just an anti-Murray vote. Last year it was somebody I've never fucking heard of and this year it looks like being some other cunt I've never heard of. That's the good think about the olympics/spazz olympics, it makes even more minor, minor celebrities for future big brother shows.
 
Bradley Fucking Wiggins? I thought he was a character on the Simpsons
 
Bradley fcuking Wiggins is doing very well.
You not watch him doing the time trials in the TDF yesterday, while every fcuker was neigh on deaths door at the finish line he crossed it doing a wheelie.

averaging 48km/h up and down hills, he didn't even lift his arse off his seat and still beat his closest rival by over a minute.
If he becomes the first Brit to win the TDF then I'd say he's nailed on to win the SPOTY unless Craig Bellamy beats Usaine Bolt in the 100M.
 
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