The 'big six' (Ainslie, Ennis, Farah, Hoy, Murray and Wiggins) are assured their places but although Bradley Wiggins is in the driving seat, there are some compelling reasons why each of them can prevail. All someone needs is around 150k votes but this could be a record year in the number of votes recorded.
My 'hype list' of likeliest to win:
1. Bradley Wiggins
2. Mo Farah
3. Jessica Ennis
4. Chris Hoy
5. Ben Ainslie
6. Andy Murray
The big danger is Sky will want their man Bradley Wiggins to win a BBC award, and will get all their employees to vote accordingly which wouldn't be impossible but 'morally dubious' but all's fair in love and war and the BBC will be laughing at the revenue they're getting from this to be too precious about SPotY though.
The BBC appear to be pimping Jessica Ennis as their preferred candidate but Mo Farah is probably their back-up plan.
There are a whole bunch of double gold medal winners to consider but I think
Laura Trott and
Jason Kenny are out as there are already two cyclists.
Victoria Pendleton also looks likely to miss out.
Lewis Hamilton could sneak a place if he somehow wins the F1 World Championship.
Rory McIlroy may get in if he can win the USPGA Championship.
Carl Froch is Britain's only world boxing champion at the moment but Olympic boxers may get a look in ahead of him.
...and there's the Paralympics which may find itself unfortunately 'shut out' of anybody to represent them. If it was on the BBC, I'm sure they'd accommodate a nomination but it's on Channel 4 so they'll have an excuse.
Who are the four that could fill the remaining places?
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Charlotte Dujardin - As Zara Phillips' win back in 2006 showed, equestrianism does have a fanbase and it was evident with the crowds they were getting in London as well. In a flood of double gold medals, being in a different sport superficially might make the difference.
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Nicola Adams - She's female and she's from an ethnic minority, and she's also the first female to win a boxing gold medal. She's ahead of Luke Campbell even with his emotional win over John Joe Nevin, and also Freddie Evans and Anthony Joshua.
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Katharine Grainger - She's finally won the gold medal. Rowing might get a representative and she may be the one but if it isn't her...
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Ed McKeever - ...it could be this guy. The negative is that he's in a fairly minority sport (CANOEING!!) and that there are plenty of other double gold medal winners about.
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Greg Rutherford - He's the 'emergency nominee'. Sure, he's won a gold medal but most of the others will have won at least one and have something to back it up with. His gimmick will be that he's the only one to have won anything on the field.
The odds as they are right now after Mo Farah's 5000 metres win: