• Hi and welcome to Betnod. Please register for even more tips, analysis and chat.

Bets Placed

Not sure about Slovakia, but Slovenia I believe to make it through. I'm almost liking the odds given right now for them to qualify.. but still a bit hesitant to take it. Guess I'll wait for rehearsals with that one.
 
I'm getting really deep with Ireland not qualifying. I have it @ 8.0, @ 7.5 and now I took a bit more with 6.0. I must be mad. I might end up (probably will) selling some of it away and shortening my risk @ betfair, but for now I'm deep with ireland not qualifying. Man I hope they dont have a strong following. My bets might suck because the lucky irish pricks got the best position in semis, but still hoping for failure! :)
 
Rather you than me Archi. That's going to lead to one hell of an agonising night.
 
Well I can always bet ireland to qualify @ 1.28 (unibet, betfair) and essentially make my odds quite high with smaller risk. Also surewin is possible, but that doesnt feel appealing, not high enough and if I'm right I would be kicking myself for not trusting my insticts :) So not gonna do it, not yet at least, although I have more on this bet than what I usually risk on something with odds this high. Afterall, Ireland is likely to qualify (~65%'ish, ballpark random guess), but I just think 8.0 and 7.5 are way too high, 6.0 is close I guess, but still think there is some value with 6.0 :) It will be agonising (but also kinda fun) night anyways, I always have relatively big bets on qualifiers. Usually bet after rehearsals though, but this time Ireland has gotten my attention beforehand. Also Greece I've got @ 1.35 and Iceland @ 1.30 to qualify. But with others I'll be waiting. Unless someone offers something ridiculous..
 
Another bet on Finland to qualify 1.5pts @ 6/4
2.5pts Greece v Uk match bet @ 6/5
 
Just tried to place a non-qualification double at Unibet for Slovenia and Cyprus - their limits were £2.08 :lol
 
Dec said:
Another bet on Finland to qualify 1.5pts @ 6/4
2.5pts Greece v Uk match bet @ 6/5
Click to expand...

I spotted that devilishly tempting match up a week or so ago Dec and picked it out for a special mention on the other site. On the face of it, it looks a certain give away, but then I considered the threat Romania's popular upbeat entry poses to Greece; both will be picking each other's pockets for votes. It seems there is still value to be exploited at just a smidgen over evens...
 
Not to be a party-crasher or anything, but shouldn't this thread be for bets placed only (with possible motivation for the bets of course)? If one has to sift through random videos it's kind of diluted.

Anyways - here are my most important bets so far:

Netherlands NOT to Q: 5 pts @avg 1.74 (best value I've found so far this year - I don't normally bet 5 pts this early)
Belarus NOT to Q 1.5 pts @3.20 (see them as a coinflip with slight bias to the non-Q side, which makes this good value. Bad draw, dated presentation - but reasonable song)
Hungary NOT to Q 1.5 pts @1.72 (looks to be piss poor live, I expect them to be around @4.00-5.00 to Q when rehearsals are underway)
Italy OR Germany as Bet Big 5: 1.5pts @2.00 (this is really two equally sized bets @4.00 each. I don't like Spain whatsoever, UK is pretty much killed by the draw imo and France isn't really up there)


Comments/thoughts more than welcome!
 
Here's a report of a few semifinal-bets I have placed so far. All odds are decimals, not sure what you usually work with around here. Some of these result from laying certain odds over at betfair, so don't be surprised if you've never seen some of them at any major betting site.

Montenegro not to qualify 1.60 @bwin
Not much to say about this one except they made a terrible mistake over at bwin... Line actually started @1.8. omg.
Albania to qualify 1.90 @bwin
Should've jumped on that one earlier. I'm actually convinced that her screaming stands out enough to get through even though I don't find it particularly ear pleasing.
Finland to qualify 2.40 @bwin
I think this will surprisingly score better with juries than early fan favorite Iceland. I think Finland is doomed to do poorly with televotes but not low enough to shy away from backing it at 2.4.
Estonia not to qualify 5.00 @ betfair (lay 1.25)
I'm aware that this bet will more often lose than not but I think it's outstanding value. From what I've seen he seems to struggle with his nerves at times and the stage in Baku might turn out to be too big for him. Besides, I don't see the Balkans go particularly crazy for this, so in my mind there's at least a 30% chance for him to have an early exit. I'm also confident I'd be able to hedge it with similar odds if I change my mind about it.
Ukraine not to qualify 3.65@betfair (lay 1.38)
I honestly think this is Ukraine's worst effort of all time. I generally do like their entries. I just can't imagine anyone at home thinking these random stringed/annyoing noises are exciting.
Netherlands to qualify 3.5@betfair
I hate their staging, but in contrast to most opinions that I read I do think they have some things going for them. Strong diaspora is certainly not amongst these but if the western juries in this semi take a closer look at Netherland's track record I think they might reward them more than they actually deserve for this one. I'm not sure about the song's appeal to the masses, but I think it has some universal appeal which is not restricted to a certain group of viewers.
I will take a closer look at it during rehearsals and might get the hedge but for now, based on the foregoing, I am rolling with "to qualify"
 
Substanshell said:
Netherlands to qualify 3.5@betfair
I hate their staging, but in contrast to most opinions that I read I do think they have some things going for them. Strong diaspora is certainly not amongst these but if the western juries in this semi take a closer look at Netherland's track record I think they might reward them more than they actually deserve for this one. I'm not sure about the song's appeal to the masses, but I think it has some universal appeal which is not restricted to a certain group of viewers.
I will take a closer look at it during rehearsals and might get the hedge but for now, based on the foregoing, I am rolling with "to qualify"
Click to expand...

Interesting! I'll be posting a full reasoning for why I think it's hopeless on ESCBet, but first I'm just a bit curious about your resoning on the judges. Do you mean that judges in general reward poor performing countries, as "compensaition"? If so, I don't believe it's anything we've seen the last couple of years. Or did I misunderstand the reasoning behind the juries?
 
You didn't misunderstand me.
I think there is even an article about it on escbet, anti-diaspora voting by juries. It's all just a theory of course.
I wouldn't go as far as saying poor qualifying countries will score highly with juries regardless, but a little bit of "compensation" sounds reasonable to me. That's why juries were installed after all.
I think there is some evidence with last year's Switzerland. Wouldn't have made it out of it's semi without some jury help.
After succesful qualification it was completely abandoned by juries finishing way below Greece in the jury score, which wasn't the case in its semi.
 
From my point of view, the juries aren't there to "compensate", but rather "balance" the diaspora vote. In other words, not consider it at all and thus dillute it. To give the juries specific instructions to discriminate against countries with large diasporas would be politically very dangerous. It might of course be that individual jury members take this stance by their own initiative.

You're obviously correct in that last year's Switzerland were helped to the finals by the juries, but I'm hesitant to deem it a part of a pattern. I'd think that at closer examination, you'd find a counter-example for each example supporting the theory. From last year, a good counter-example would be... the Netherlands ;)
 
Sure. As I said, "I wouldn't go as far as saying poor qualifying countries will score highly with juries regardless"
It might just make the difference in close cases. And from my point of view Netherlands 2012 might be a close case.
However, I don't want to be backed into a corner where I'll have to defend this stoned Indian girl. I might hedge my wagers at any given point in time.
 
Sorry if I sounded somewhat aggressive, that wasn't my intention. In fact, I'm very thankful for getting my bets challenged, as it has sometimes saved me a lot of money :)

In any case, let's continue this discussion on the corresponding ESC-bet page!
 
1.5pts Romania Top10 @ 2.36. Will have more on this again at some stage.
 
got a bit of:
Iceland v Ireland: Iceland 1.43 @ Bwin

Something is wrong with the world if this doesnt come home.
 
Winner W/O Sweden: Italy 9.0 @ BetVictor seems decent. I got banned from there, but I'll find a friend to bet for me. Looks nice, thoughts? Italy's odds have shortened quite a bit, and outright win is 13.0 now. When Sweden, the most likely winner, (according to odds) is eliminated 9.0 seems quite OK.
 
Archi said:
Winner W/O Sweden: Italy 9.0 @ BetVictor seems decent. I got banned from there, but I'll find a friend to bet for me. Looks nice, thoughts? Italy's odds have shortened quite a bit, and outright win is 13.0 now. When Sweden, the most likely winner, (according to odds) is eliminated 9.0 seems quite OK.
Click to expand...

Looks pretty good considering that Betfair odds are at around 11-12 now, yeah. Although I'd personally go for the top4 bet instead (already have some e/w @15.00 though).
 
yeah, I know, I would like e/w as well, but I missed that train. 13.0 is best that can be had now with e/w. I think there is a good chance sweden does win. I dont know about other countries, but in Finland that song is on the radio all the f'king time. Helps their case for sure.

For runner-up there are lots of possibilities, Italy being one strong contender for sure and everyone remembers last year. Maybe Italy 2nd again? B)
 
I'm way over my limits anyway on a single bet, so who cares if I go a bit more overboard? Took some more of Ireland NOT to qualify 6.0 @ paddypower. It's going to be agonizing :)
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top