Im (trying) to use as Gavster said a speculative to really fancy that 1-10,1 il have a little dabble ,10,expect it to come off.At least i think thats the idea.
I guess in simple terms im twice as confident in Italy winning/placing than i am of Greece/Romania.Maybe Gavster might add a bit if this is the approach and general idea,,as im not sure where value comes in,ie if i think Romania to place is better value than Italy,but still expect Italy to be more likely to place who should have the higher points?Gavster might add a bit unless hes listening to trackshittaz
So far Steve i always try to look for value.That period is almost through.For instance Romania,i backed heavily at 41-1,why?,well i thought it was the best of that type of song.I thought it the most likely to get played on the radio,and i expected it to shoot up the Youtube hits list.I figured then the price would shorten,ie come in to 33-1,maybe 25-1.Then i would lay back off a lot of my bet and have a choice to take a profit,or as i will do run an each way top 4,top 10 bet on Romania for free.
Agree with all that Archi,i think that sums it up very well.As for the UK price.Id say simply the bookies giving terrible odds to all the home punters who back the hump EW.Or the sinister me thinks maybe let the locals think "oh the hump is 4th favourite,must have a chance,il take a bit"as the bookies rub their mits.I guess the point system also has to take into account the odds that are given? If someone gave me odds on Sweden to win @ 25.0 I would give it 10pts and bet big on it. But with 3.25 I dont want to even touch it. It doesnt necessarily mean that one expects the bet to hit home, it simply means how much you like that particular bet(?). Like, if someone gave me odds of 50.0 for UK to win, I would take it gladly and rate it 10pts. Not because there is really a 1/50 shot for UK to win, but because it is so much over the market price that one can make profit with it no matter what. I was also under the impression that pts mean how much you bet on that. Like, everyone has their own system probably. for someone 1pts is 1% of bankroll, for other 1pts might be 0.1% of bankroll etc. But in a way it's the same thing, since if someone bets 10pts on any given bet, he/she must think it's a good bet. So it would be nice to have common understanding on what the pts mean, but I dont know if it's that necessary. If someone bets big pts on some bet I automatically assume they like the bet and are confident it's a good bet.
Just my $0.02
ps. What is witht he UK odds to win? ~15.0, seriously? I dont get it
But I was under the impression this is for Eurovision bets only. Otherwise this thread would get pretty crowded and messy. I'll take that tip though, just for fun.
uhh... thanks I am confused as wellhehe, thanks!
Semi2 no chance but 1 a tiny one,IMO 11/4 a bit too big.What do you think of that Germany/Spain match bet Archi,i might increase it as im warming to Germany.I wont destroy you for that bet, I've been looking at the same bet for a few days now, havent bet just yet though. I've been also thinking that they have a chance from SF1. And the song has been growing on me. Altohugh I realize it's kinda peculiar.. Maybe I should just bet also to leave it behind me then
I think too they are pretty even,but i think Germany has the advantage for the female vote.That made it a bet.I think il watch the odds and if it does go to evens,increase to 5pts.If I had to bet I would choose Germany as well, but I dont quite like 5/6 (that's 1.83, right?). It's close though, as with odds of 2.0 I would bet for Germany for sure. I've been following this pairings odds also, but feel like there is only small value, if any.
Strenght wise those songs are very close to each other, with small edge on Germany. I feel like Germany has slight edge in three different categories: song itself, language (English songs tend to do better), and going right after spain.In my mind all those combined makes Germany a favourite in this pairing. So I might snatch 1.83, but I'm hoping it maybe rises a bit.. and that's when I'll be betting on it
I dont know how much looks affect the outcome, and both of them are attractive for sure. So I think looks-wise it's a tie. I dont know which ones get more votes simply on looks, men or women. I would think men, but I'm not sure. It's different genre, and different age groups vote on these things, but looks like in other music competitions it's harder for women to win than it is for men. If someone follows American Idol they would know what I mean. (same in Finland, men get the teen girl attention) Good looking guys tend to get votes simply on their looks, but the same thing doesnt seem to work with attractive women. Looks like teenage girls are more fanatic in voting simply for good looks. Teenage boys dont vote as much, they just drool.