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Steve_uk said:
Thinking about the gender issue it's more evenly split today than in the past when male singers rarely got a look-in. Germany's song is pretty dire,let's be honest,and I don't envy you working out whether it will beat an equally poor Spanish song. Spain does have to compete with the likes of Azerbaijan,France,Italy,maybe Ukraine whereas Roman has tough competition with Tooji and Zeljko. I think you're right about teenage boys not voting as much,but teenage girls will vote for other females;it's the middle-aged females who won't vote for their younger and more attractive sex.
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Every year i give a cd of all entries to my daughter (21) and son (15),this year they watched them all on Youtube.Last year they both picked Sweden.I backed it on that EW.The year before they both went for Satelite.This year my daughter went for Sweden again (theres my idea it is dated blown away) and Germany,her friends all like Germany,my son picked Denmark.Pure none scientific of course.
Like you said iv looked at the support more,and i think like you indicated Germany edge that.Its an interesting match,but like you said wether there is any value is debatable,but i think maybe there is a bit in Germany.
 
Another 5pts on Romania Top 10 2.10 @ bwin. Has dropped to 1.63 on betfair.
 
I've now upped my Romania top-10 stake to a full 10pts. I'll be keenly waiting for more bookies publishing their markets.
 
DurhamBorn said:
Estonia top Baltic country 5pts 4/5@StanJames
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I looked at that and thought, what a gift! Then I consulted my notes and was a little put off my Lithuania's semi final slot and the fact Estonia has to qualify from what is a very hard semi. I going to wait until rehearsals before I take a 'below evens' bet.
 
8pts ew russia . 14-1 and 10-1 placed when thought bilan would quailfy this bet disgusts me
3 pts ew germany 28-1
5 pts ew norway 25-1
 
Gavster said:
I've now upped my Romania top-10 stake to a full 10pts. I'll be keenly waiting for more bookies publishing their markets.
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They looked great in Amsterdam,the standout(apart from she didnt sing live for some reason),im low on the top 10 on them,ive been laying off a bit of the win bet as i was very heavy at 41sew ,but need more top 10.Im going to run some of the 41/1ew.
I like the top Baltic bet,a two horse race for sure,and Estonia is far more jury friendly,i think Estonia will qualify Lithuania to really struggle and if they both do Estonia should trounce it in the final.il up it to a 10pts after iv seen the rehearsals probably.
 
pimpin4rizeal said:
8pts ew russia . 14-1 and 10-1 placed when thought bilan would quailfy this bet disgusts me
3 pts ew germany 28-1
5 pts ew norway 25-1
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Im warming to Germany but the only interest so far is a match bet with Spain.She sounded great in Amsterdam,but i think Germany edge it.Il be taking a good look at the rehearsal as its available in some interesting match bets.
 
DurhamBorn said:
Im warming to Germany but the only interest so far is a match bet with Spain.She sounded great in Amsterdam,but i think Germany edge it.Il be taking a good look at the rehearsal as its available in some interesting match bets.
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Im actually warming to spain a lot.
Theses bets were placed a while ago now, quite a close call on these 2
Spains starting to stand out as the better song while germany has the more contempary ballad and slightly better draw.
As of now id be tempted to choose spain
 
Yes Spain sometimes seems fantastic,but i think it is weak in parts.I think Germany might edge the televote.Its a very close call and 2nd rehearsal could be the key.
 
Put all my bets in order today, so here goes:
All my bets so far
Iceland top10: 2.28 @ betfair
Iceland wins: avg odds 35 (888sports & betfair)
Iceland top4: 8.5 (this is with E/W bet @ 888sports. My way to keep track of everything I got)
SF1 winner ICELAND: 12.5 @Betfair
Nul points: NO: 1.25 @ Bwin
Ireland NOT to qualify: 8.0 @ PaddyPower
Ireland NOT to qualify: 7.5 @ Bwin
Ireland NOT to qualify: 6.0 @ PaddyPower
Russia NO top10: 4.33 @ Betfair
Russia NO top4: 2.0 @ Betfair
Greece to qualify: 1.35 @ Unibet
Iceland to qualify: 1.35 @ Unibet
Iceland and Norway to qualify: 1.82 @ Unibet
UK NO top10: 2.66 @ Betfair
UK finish 17-20: 11 @ PaddyPower
WIN w/o Sweden: Italy: 9.0 @ BetVictor

Match Bets:

uk vs. GREECE: 2.25 & 2.1 @ StanJames
uk vs. GERMANY: 1.91 @StanJames
Russia vs. SERBIA: 3.5 @ betfair
Russia vs. SERBIA: 2.5 @StanJames
Turkey vs. ROMANIA: 2.2 @StanJames
ICELAND vs. Ireland: 1.43 @ Bwin
 
Took a small'ish stab:
Latvia to qualify: 4.0 @ NordicBet

I got stuck browsing the odds again. Had to bet something, otherwise my time would have been a waste, right? :p I dont know about that to be honest. I have warmed up to it lately and she does seem to have decent pipes so I figure she has a fighting chance from SF1. In SF2 she would get murdered.
 
Il try to put mine up Archi,iv traded a few bits out on Italy and Romania so running the win bets freeish.
Win Market/Top 4
Romania 41/1 ew @ StanJames,Skybet
Greece 28/1 ew @Paddypower
Italy 16/1 @Paddypower,
Lay Sweden 2/1 @Betfair (will trade out)

Romania top ten @ 5/4 Betfair
uk v GREECE @ 11/10 StanJames
Estonia top Baltic @ 4/5 StanJames
spain v GERMANY 5/6 StanJames
turkey v ROMANIA 6/5 StanJames
 
Why is is that StanJames and BetVictor give different returns with same E/W rules (E/W 1/4 1,2,3,4)

Wanted to take Romania 34 with E/W. I'll illustrate the problem: say I bet 50, it says return 1700 in both places, as it should. Then I check the E/W box and StanJames says: Return 2162,5€, and BetVictor says 2080€. So it seems like with StanJames the top4 odds is 9,25, but with BetVictor it's 7,6. Why is this, anyone, any ideas? It's a pretty significant difference with the top4 odds. Of course StanJames wont let me take as much as I want, and BetVictor is screwing me with the odds. Darn.
 
Strange one that Archi is Betvictor 1/4or 1/5,,,William Hill still have 33s up..I notice Betvictor have Italy in at 5/1 now.
 
DurhamBorn said:
Strange one that Archi is Betvictor 1/4or 1/5,,,William Hill still have 33s up..I notice Betvictor have Italy in at 5/1 now.
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BetVictor is 1/4 for outright win, 1/5 for semifinals. I'm chatting with live help right now, he seems to be baffled as well :p And I think William Hill has EW 1/3 1,2,3 only. no top4 there :/

yeah they dropped italy quite low. I was able to snatch Italy @ 9.0 without Sweden. BetVictor really messed up there! :) Really happy with that bet
 
Even though I kinda like the song this feels like good value right now:

France top10: NO - 1.3 @ Bwin

Betfair has France top10 at 6.6 right now, and it feels like many of betfair's top10 odds are rather low right now. They are also performing 9th in the finals which isnt the greatest of spots. Liking this a lot.
 
Archi said:
BetVictor is 1/4 for outright win, 1/5 for semifinals. I'm chatting with live help right now, he seems to be baffled as well :p And I think William Hill has EW 1/3 1,2,3 only. no top4 there :/

yeah they dropped italy quite low. I was able to snatch Italy @ 9.0 without Sweden. BetVictor really messed up there! :) Really happy with that bet
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Yes thats a great bet.We all on here got Italy at great prices,i think Gavster got some 28s.Betfair hasnt got much liquidity in the top ten market at the minute,you sometimes get some nice prices when casual punters join in.Thats probably a shoe in on France.
My Sweden lay is starting to drift so i might trade that out for some more firepower.We should see the bookies putting up some more markets soon.I am considering a match bet on the Netherlands v Belgium,only considering at the minute.
Im waiting to see if Turkey do the wandering around the stage drunk routine in the rehearsals,if they do im going heavy against them in a couple of match bets and upping the Romania match bet.
 
Archi said:
Even though I kinda like the song this feels like good value right now:

France top10: NO - 1.3 @ Bwin

Betfair has France top10 at 6.6 right now, and it feels like many of betfair's top10 odds are rather low right now. They are also performing 9th in the finals which isnt the greatest of spots. Liking this a lot.
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Thanks Archi, a good tip right there.
 
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