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rcgills said:
You're right that a certain sequence can't continue forever, it presumably has to change eventually - however, there's no way of knowing when, and you could lose a hell of a lot of money in the mean time waiting for that change to occur.

And in any case, surely all of the above only applies to an event which is consistently the same time after time i.e. tossing a coin, spinning a roulette wheel, etc.? In a football match there are so many variables (opponents, injuries/suspensions, weather conditions, etc. etc.) to take into account as well that go far beyond questions of probability.
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My explanation was about the statistics only and about a period of run which can't be forever because ONEDUMME didn't believe
(as I understood) in propablity theory. I know that in sports there are a lot of other variables which you pointed and many others.

OK guys, stop this subject! Everything started from my words which I used in my preview about polish match but it wasn't a key fact in my preview, just only simple feeling about the chances.

THE END​
=================================================================================​

Let's back to my record...​

WEEKEND: +6,53units​
08.10 Dundalk - Derry City 2 (AH -1.0) @ 1.83 SBOBET / Stake: 6/10 / FT 0-2 / +4,98units
08.10 Elblag - Ol. Grudziadz 2 (AH 0.0) @ 1.95 SBOBET / Stake: 7/10 / FT 0-0 / Void
08.10 Bayonne - Nimes 2 (AH -0.5) @ 1.82 SBOBET / Stake: 8/10 / FT 2-1 / -8units
09.10 Warta Poznan - Kolejarz 1 (AH -0.5) @ 1.84 SBOBET / Stake: 7/10 / FT 0-1 / -7units
09.10 London City - TFC Academy 1 (AH +0.5) @ 2.06 188Bet / Stake: 5/10 / FT 2-1 / +5,3units
09.10 London City - TFC Academy Under 3.5 @ 2.05 188Bet / Stake: 5/10 / FT 2-1 / +5,25units
09.10 York Region Shooters - SC Toronto 1 (AH +0.5) @ 2.20 Pinnacle / Stake: 5/10 / FT 1-0 / +6units
​
 
I'd go along with that Rc.

Can we just let BA post his bets up for a bit now, leave him be and see how he gets on? I think he could be a good un, whatever theory.
 
You're right Punter, to paraphrase Bruce Forsyth "You're so much better than the last paid tipster we had on here".

Nice start BettingArea :thumb
 
I said the same thing in my previous post, rc, just with an emoticon rather than loads of words.
 
I agree we back off and give the guy a break.

After I've taken issue with this load of bollocks

BettingArea said:
Did you play in european roulette in casino ? In every round the chances for example - on red color are lower.
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The chances of red or black or any number are EXACTLY the same after every single spin as they were the spin before. Exactly the same.

Anyone who thinks otherwise is a fucking idiot.

Good luck with your bets.
 
ONEDUNME said:
The chances of red or black or any number are EXACTLY the same after every single spin as they were the spin before. Exactly the same.

Anyone who thinks otherwise is a fucking idiot.

Good luck with your bets.
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Thanks, and yes, you're right, the chances are exactly the same in every SINGLE spin. It depends how you look at it. Pls read this article http://www.casinoman.net/content/science/roulette-mathematics.asp (look: absolute probability - sequential probability)
and you should know what I meant :)
 
Thanks for that link. It demonstrates my point exactly.
 
wow,what luck!I clicked on the link and found the book Ive been waiting for all my life,
"the 7 deadly sins of choosing an online casino"!
a bargain:dance
 
love the example,"imagine you and your wife decide to have 9 children"!.
you wouldnt have any money to bet with:eek:

omg the 7 deadly pitfuls book is free...yaaayyy
 
Tuesday's bet - Euro - Qualification
Georgia - Greece
Pick: Georgia (+0.5) @ 2.00 Paddypower | MEDIUM STAKE 5 UNITS

Greece needs only 1 point to reach the main target which is promotion to Euro in the next year. Guests have few important missings and it should work for the team in negative way. The style of playing in Greece isn't impressive. Georgia for every visitor is a hard place to play a match. At home team there are no any worries in squad.

Everyone from both those countries expect a balanced game. For sure in both sides will be a big motivation. In my eyes everything above 1.70 is value so take it with medium stake maximum.
 
Georgia 1-2 (1-0) Greece | -5units
Both goals scored in last 15 minutes of the match. What's the best, in the other thread in this forum about qualifications all my feelings were correct (Switzerland won, Wales won and Slovenia surprised Serbia).

International games never been my the best side which has been confirmed unfortunately today. I am waiting for the top leagues and then will count all October.
 
Tommorow will have few strong selection with high stake, should be added in afternoon :wink
 
Fixures dont look great tomorrow lower league french and italian and polish and spanish cup in europe.
Saying that Kolejarz and Warta both playing :wink
 
fc basher said:
Fixures dont look great tomorrow lower league french and italian and polish and spanish cup in europe.
Saying that Kolejarz and Warta both playing :wink
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Let's hope it's not a case of "Warta waste o money"

These are the jokes folks (in case you weren't aware)

Sorry
 
BettingArea said:
International games never been my the best side which has been confirmed unfortunately today. I am waiting for the top leagues and then will count all October.
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So you know you've never been very good at predicting International games yet you choose one to recommend a bet on in a thread designed to attract customers to your pay-for service? :lol

A free tip for you - making excuses after getting it wrong will not do you any favours in your desperation to have people pay you to tell them what to bet on.
 
BettingArea said:
Georgia 1-2 (1-0) Greece | -5units
Both goals scored in last 15 minutes of the match. What's the best, in the other thread in this forum about qualifications all my feelings were correct (Switzerland won, Wales won and Slovenia surprised Serbia).
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:lol Haven't we heard this kind of "justification" of a losing bet before?
If it wasn't for your English being so good, I'd think you were someone else.

Do you mind if I call you Yorkski?
 
Mates, I am a human, I always feel something when I win and when I lost so I think it's normal. Of course it doesn't change anything but usually people try to find an explanation why he lost his bet. For example professional website Betadvisor.com - if tipster there lost then he can write why he lost and they do it.

I undestood that you people everywhere are looking for some mistake in my preview or analysis and then try to criticize me. Propably it's because I offer paid service... be patient and follow my bets, if you won't be interested then no problem, I will understand that I was too bad in October to prove you my prediction skills.
 
Poland 2. Div.
Ruch Radzionkow - Olimpia Elblag
Pick: Ruch Radzionkow @ 1.75 Nordicbet, Sportingbet | HIGH STAKE 9 UNITS

It's the one of my high stakes games today. Ruch tied 0-0 in last round in Nieciecza (Nieciecza rich club with many good quality players). In Ruch's squad we can find many young and talented players. Olimpia Elblag I know very well, cause I have few contacts there. At the moment current morale in the team is very low. The assistent of coach has fired last week, after this match will be fired the 1st coach Wesolowski because club don't want to work with him. In last match Elblag tied 0-0 at home with Grudziadz and in few parts of the match showed dangerous attacks but overall could be happy that didn't lose. Olimpia is too young team to such level of competition which is 2. Division. They haven't good scorers in squad, before this match few key players are injured and suspended, on road so far Olimpia collected only 2 points and nothing tells me today something will change.
 
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